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I got Brace Yourself at 35/1 EW boosted. He is a second season novice and ran a few times at the start of the season, but his last race was in November with the Porterstown handicap over 3m5f in which he finished second to Court Maid. I think they kept him fresh for the Irish National after that race. Before that he was a good third in the Florida Pearl Novice Chase, behind Pencilfulloflead and Latest Exhibtion. but in front of Court Maid and Run Wild Fred. Brace Yourself gets quite some weights against some of those rivals in this race. So I think he a very big price for someone with course form, good form overall and will stay the trip.
Brace Yourself 35/1 EW (5 places)
The Irish handicapper seems to have these quite well covered. My ratings have all bar a handful within 15lbs on recent form which isn’t very much for a field this size. I’ve ‘finessed’ ratings for those with no recent handicap form, something I suspect I will have to do for the Aintree contest next week. My top few ratings are:
Atlantic Shore 167
Salsaretta 166
Snugsborough Benny 164
Run Wild Fred 164
Latest Exhibition 160
Moyhenna 160
Enjoy D’Allen 160
Top Moon 160
Ten Ten 159Enough positives for each of the top 4 to taker them against the field.
Atlantic Shore 40/1 – Was on a nice upward curve until disappointing last time. Balance of form decent and price covers for the risk he’s gone over the top.
Salsaretta 40/1 (50/1 in a place) – Highly tried in mares’ company last two races. Generally progressive previously though including beating Galvin in a novice chase in Nov 2019. Upped in distance, but that’s covered in the price and favourably treated for an animal with a bit of class.
SNUGSBOROUGH BENNY 66/1 – Most interesting of the lot from my point of view. Hasn’t won for a good while but was fourth in this in 2019 and saw out the trip then. Not given a hard time in a hurdle race last time. That wask off a long break following a close fifth in the Galway Plate which confirmed ability is retained. Worth a tilt at this price.
Run Wild Fred 10/1 – A maiden over fences but has gone close a number of times hand is weighted to turn round Gowran form with Coko Beach. Strong contender.I’ve been considering Brace Yourself, but so far i haven’t backed *backed too many already lol.
On:
Court Maid at 25s, already mentioned here.
Off You Go at 16s- while he’s off 148, he’s surprisingly still a novice so still meets that stat, even though he’s ran a fair few handicaps i still think he’s unexposed. Last time, he stayed really well over 2m5 and outstayed a GN fancy for some in Minella Times. The form looks strong with plenty of good runs since from the first 6. He’s out of a dam that’s closely related to Shutthefrontdoor who won an Irish GN. So there’s hope he’ll stay, and possibly improve for it.
Lastly, i’m on Robin De Carlow at 40s she has been in my mind for a while now, she’s had a few entries early March in the Mares Chase and the Leinster National. That suggests to me she’s been almost ready to rock for a month nearly now. While the trip is a little of an unknown, off 138 she’s well handicapped for sure. They are bringing her back off a long layoff, no better man for returning one from that length of time. Blackmore takes the ride.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’m happy having taken Court Maid and Sempo already, but as it’s The Irish National I’ll add another.
If The Big Dog wins, I’ll be kicking myself, because I think that Codd getting down to his lowest weight in years is a big tip in itself. 8-1 is quite short, but he’s my third selection.
Try again Off You Go win @ 40.0
I was going to take the 16’s with the bookies so good job i looked on the exchanges first. Doubts about the trip but a strange one that.
rob, what number do you have for Coko Beach out of interest. He has 7lb off his back tomorrow. Which means in theory Run Wild Fred can’t reverse the form if the rider makes good use of his claim, or unless Run Wild Fred improves past him for the step up in trip and on quicker ground.
Mike
I have Coko Beach on 149. Method does tend to mitigate against recent winners unless the second has improved to frank the form, but these tend to overbet so I have no problem with that.
This instance is slightly complicated by the fact that I use only handicap races to form ratings. It’s a bit of a fiddle, but I could rate Coko Beach at 158 finessing a rating from his non-handicap run last time.
Rob
I’ve added Fitzhenry 25/1 ew 7 plc, and Robin Des Carlow 22/1 win to my original Agusta Gold bet.
I’ve added Fitzhenry 25/1 ew 7 plc, and Robin Des Carlow 22/1 win to my original Agusta Gold bet.
I’m going to put more though on Agusta Gold at 8/1
Usually have something for an interest myself so gone for
Latest Exhibition price has gone for Each Way.
Run Wild Fred Each Way with Boylesport (7 places)
Escaria Ten Each Way with Boylesport (7 places)
Court Maid Each Way (Ante Post 5 places)
Also combined them in forecast/tricast just in case I’m lucky enough
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.5 for me in the race. All each way (6 or 7 places):
– Latest Exhibition 5/1
– Run Wild Fred 10/1
– Escaria Ten 16/1
– Scoir Mear 40/1
– Mortal 150/1Good luck all.
Added Robin De Carlow at 16/1 EW. A bit of guess after 1,5 years no racing, but she could be very well handicappedat 138.
Brace Yourself 35/1 EW
Robin de Carlow 16/1 EWI’ve added Off You Go and Jerrysback in the end.
As mentioned, it was always the plan to bet Off You Go, and he might just be underrated on his supposed stamina doubts. Put him up as one to follow on here a few months back, and I’ll stay loyal.
Jerrysback is initially harder to recommend, but didn’t realise he lost a shoe last time, and that is crucial, as his previous run was highly encouraging. No stamina doubts, and interesting that he’s making the journey across. Jody McGarvey takes the ride, and he’ll be riding with confidence after his big day today.
Jerrysback 33’s EW 7 Pls
Off You Go
Ten Ten 33’s/EW 7 Pls
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