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Significant Handicap movements (12th July)
Runners having an outing before Saturday will be ahead of the handicapper, notwithstanding there will be a penalty incurred if the race is a handicap. The penalty level will still leave an advantage for the runners listed below.
Significant Handicap movements (19th July)
Runners having an outing before Saturday will be ahead of the handicapper, notwithstanding there will be a penalty incurred if the race is a handicap. The penalty level will still leave an advantage for the runners listed below.I see today that BAAEED has been elevated to 135 (up7lbs) for his York win.
Using the word elevated seemed the right word to use rather than just raised 7lbs.
That was some performance, surely now comparisons with Frankel (140) are ok to mention.
I reckon in my humble opinion that Baaeed’s rating is just about right given the York race with Mishriff btn 6 1/2 lengths and the impressive style of the winner. Will we see an even higher mark in the future ?Alex
Thanks Venture (how do you keep going with your enthusiasm – your a star)
My bet below for the Cambridge.
Astro King looks a reasonable EW at 20/1
Possibly the rating for the race is too high but its a valuable race and 250 could be achieved.
Nothing here has reached that level within their last half dozen runs so expect anything !Yarmouth 16.35pm Cl3 Fillies H’c 6f
Summer Of Love looks a value favourite here. The highest possible rating is 100. Most of the boxes get ticked here except that she has not won at this distance and has not run the course todate. Her 71% the highest recorded in the archive for the form this year also 24 points clear of the next best.
Is all this just too good to be true. I have to take the evens this morning.Yesterday (Tuesday 17th) was a good day !
Today, the best race on the cards is perhaps the Cl1 Fillies Stakes at Yarmouth which is the race analysed. Estrange is a short priced favourite (15/8) but the ratings favour Karmology and Sea Just In Time. Estrange having only a single career run is something of an unknown leading me to think that this race is best swerved. Notwithstanding that the two better rated could be both bet for a decent profit.
There will be other opportunities.Thursday 19th Sept 15.42. Aviemore holds claims and will be close to, if not outright favourite. Pol Roger is a course specialist and takes up the position for 2nd spot. Lurking in the background is Marhaba The Champ who has sidestepped a couple of opportunities in favour of this race. There is some support for this one who has had a wind op a couple of runs back.
Friday 20th Ayr 16.15: Eternal Sunshine (13/2) takes a hike in class but according to the ratings remains in contention. Another somewhat surprising candidate is Knicks who is currently (33/1). Both of them have favourable high draws. In a sprint such as this with 25 runners luck will play its part. However, if we are talking luck then it’s been with me this week. Marhaba The Champ (Thursday) scrambled a 4th place at good odds, with bet365 paying out on fourth. So,Friday its a small EW interest in both mentioned for payouts down to 6th place.
Update: Friday 20th It is significant that Eternal Sunshine has been backed into 4/1 in this now 24 runner event. (Call Me Ginger a non runner). Knicks has drifted to 40/1 but still holds onto 2nd spot in the ratings. That is mainly due to a good run back in the mists of time under previous trainer.
Sat 21st Sept Ayr 3.35pm: American Affair & Room Service are both clear with the ratings in this cavalry charge. If Room Service had run the Aye course the ratings would have been very close to the top. There is a case for having an exotic type bet such as the trifecta using the top half dozen in the ratings.
Back to the mundane today at Hamilton which is likely to be soft going given the recent weather. No luck at Ayr over the weekend with our top ratings.
Monday 23rd Hamilton 13.48pm cl6 AppH’c 8F: An interesting Apprentice H’cap. Rebecca’s Girl &
Temper Trap both hold strong claims. Apprentice Archie Young has the mount on Temper Trap but the soft going must be a query. Rebecca’s Girl will be more suited to soft but runs this race without the usual blinkers.
Monday 23rd Sept: Ham 15.33pm Cl4 12f. Minstrel Knight, E Bethell, Callum Rodriguez. The combination of a runner in form coupled with similar Trainer and Jockey could be the value in this 8 runner event.
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