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Handicap Hikes
These are the National Hunt performances that the handicapper has hiked with published list this week, contrasted against earlier list to arrive at the amount of rise expressed as lbs.
Nov 19th list Hurdlers
Bobs Lady Tamure (GB) 15 ▲
Volnay de Thaix (FR) 14 ▲
Annaluna (IRE) 13 ▲
Ellistrin Belle (GB) 12 ▲
Forced Family Fun (GB) 12 ▲
Johns Luck (IRE) 12 ▲
Maggie Blue (IRE) 10 ▲Nov 19th list Chasers
Big George (GB) 10 ▲
Bold Henry (GB) 10 ▲
Darna (GB) 10 ▲
Distime (IRE) 10 ▲
No Through Road (GB) 10 ▲
Perfect Candidate (IRE) 10 ▲
Vivaccio (FR) 10 ▲
What will the handicapper make of this performance ?Croco Bay
made a mockery of Saturday’s Ascot 3.15pm handicap chase today.
Won by 19 lengths in real style. My prediction is that the new rating will be close to a rise of 18lbs making the new mark 152.It was a good relative time with yardsticks in that race to gauge in Oscar Hill and Grey Gold.
Croco Bay cost 70K in May sales and now runs for Trainer Ben Case since July 2014.New Official handicap list published Wednesday will give us the answer.
NB* The rating published on 26th nov showed a 15 lb rise
_______________________________________________________________SUNDAY 22ND
Unefille De Guye
EXE 01:05 ▲ 6 lbs
Perhaps the key to this is John’s Luck who beat De Guye 13th Nov (87) who has been hiked to (99) a 12 lb rise. Unefille De Guye looks solid if you believe in collateral form as an indicator.
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MONDAY 24th Ludlow 2.55pm 3m Chase
Latest H’cap ratings to 15th Nov , 9 days ago
Future H’c updates for info only = Due Wed, runs to 22nd Nov.Buddy’s Love
Lud 2.55 ▲ 7lb ex
Khazium Lud 2.55 ►
Royal Palladium Lud 2.55 ▲ 5lbThis race throws up what I believe handicapping interest:
Buddy’s Love win 17th Nov after close of framing seems well in here.
Beat Kings Appollo 19 lengths at similar distance to today’s race.
I am sure the Handicapper will in future rise this one more than the penalty.Khazmin also ran ok after framing of weights and escapes any weight rise but has yet to win a chase.
Royal Palladium gets a 5lb increase for 11th Nov Lingfield win which looks about right to me.
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Tues Sedgefield 2.50 2m ChaseCarters Rest ▲ 8lbs
Carters Rest has the days highest rating hike with an 8lb rise.
Nothwithstanding, Southway Star (Ling 2.00pm) who having won twice since the framing of the weights carrries the burden of 2 X 7lb penalties.
Carters Rest, oldest in the field formerly ran off a chase mark of 101. Then followed a series of 6 hurdle races before managing a chase win 26 days ago.
The 8lb rise (79) to (87) will be, or should be, offset with 7lb claimer on board.
The latest win – with today’s claimer – was on 30th Oct but there is no collateral form to follow out of this particular race.Yesterday was disappointing with fav Buddy’s Love costing me but today its onward and upward with the above.
Wed Fontwell 1.40pm 2m 4f H’c HurdleLightentertainement ▲ 6lbs
Excluding the couple of runners today having penalties the 6lb rise for Lightentertainment is the most hiked today.
Perhaps the key to the form is the latest Ascot run. Finished a close 2nd on that occasion just btn by Tara Road.
Tara Road has run since with a weight rise of 4 lbs and won in style. That collateral run is confirmation that Lightentertainment is well in here.________________________________________________________________________
Handicap Hikes
These are the National Hunt performances that the handicapper has raised the most as per published list this week, Latest list is contrasted against earlier list to arrive at the amount of rise expressed as lbs. Ratings up to and including Sat 22nd Nov.
Hurdlers
Dark Spirit (IRE) ▲ 15 lbs
Dun To Perfection (GB) ▲ 14 lbs
Rouquine Sauvage (GB) ▲ 12 lbs
Kiama Bay (IRE) ▲ 11 lbs
Amberjam (IRE) ▲ 10 lbs
Barton Heather (GB) ▲ 10 lbs
Leviathan (GB) ▲ 10 lbs
Little Boy Boru (IRE) ▲ 10 lbs
Tikkandemickey (IRE) ▲ 10 lbs
Unique de Cotte (FR) ▲ 10 lbsChasers
Southway Star (GB) ▲ 24 lbs
Croco Bay (IRE) ▲ 15 lbs
Gas Line Boy (IRE) ▲ 15 lbs
Buddy Love (GB) ▲ 14 lbs
Smiles For Miles (IRE) ▲ 14 lbs
Tara Road (GB) ▲ 13 lbs
Niceonefrankie (GB) ▲ 13 lbs
Kings Lad (IRE) ▲ 12 lbs
Tigre d’Aron (FR) ▲ 11 lbs
Dance Floor King (IRE) ▲ 10 lbs_____________________________________________________________
Thurs 27th Nov Uttoxeter 2.30 H’c ChaseROUQUINE SAUVAGE ▲ 12 lbs
Carries 7lb extra via penalty today but is still 5lb well in.
Ran & won 7 days ago Chepstow Mares H’c Hurdle. Very recent form that the handicapper has
reassessed but new ratings do not take place as yet. No collateral form coming out of that Chep race.Newbury 1.00pm Ruapehu & 3.15pm Daneking both have considerable raised ratings, having both won their final races of last season and now making a reappearance. Perhaps an element of the rise between seasons may be accountable due to preventing slippage of the ratings systems overall. However, it is obvious the handicapper has respected both wins.
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Friday 28th Newbury 1.30pm H’c HurdleUNIQUE DU COTTE ▲ 10 lbs
Escapes an extra 7ln penalty here although won after the closing date of 15th Nov
Won on 16th Nov at Chelt in a 20 runner hot hurdle.
Beaten only a neck in that Cheltenham race, Dark Spirit has subsequently won impressively at Ascot.
The form looks solid here all round. Jumping reliability is said to be the question but with AP on board maybe this is an occasion when odds on can still be value ?Handicapper’s latest revised list, ups this one 10lbs for future handicaps.
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Saturday 29th Nov Newbury 3.00 H;c ChaseLE REVE ▲ 11 lbs
Hennessy Gold Cup with a host of potential winners, however, Le Reve has been raised the most by handicapper following win at Sandown 8TH Nov in good grade race over 3 miles. There isn’t any collateral form to judge this performance nevertheless, taking a postivie stance, lets assume the form is strong (handicapper raised this race rating 11lbs)
Others in this race are raised, albeit less (7lbs each) : Small Place, Many Clouds & What a Warrior.
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Sunday 30th Nov Carlisle 2.25pm H’c HurdleDun To Perfection ▲ 14 lbs
Plenty of movements in the wieghts regarding the handicaps for this race.
Dun To Perfection, winner 11 days ago has a rise of 14lbs for that run. There is no collateral form assocaiated with the race to confirm the performance however, claimer may offset the increase somewhat.
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Very little racing today to get enthusiastic aboutMon 1st Dec Plumpton 12.40pm Nov Hurdle
Lord Navits ▲ 20lbs
Considerable (hurdle rating) rise – in part due to system correction from previous season.
However,chase form is the pointer here to revitalised Lord Navits. Is this one off today after such a long gap of 256 days
Jockey booking here could be a clue.__________________________________________________________________________
Tues 2nd Dec Sedgfield 2.30pm Nov H,c Chase
Generous Chief ▼ 4lbs
Dropped to an attractive mark (93) Has limited chase runs and some potential in a race with one or two not fluent jumpers.
Visored for first time. Earlier run 17th Nov finished 3rd in a hot contest where collateral form has a few very well supported in the market in their subsequent runs.Looks value in a 4 runner event.
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Wednesday 3rd Dec 2.40pm H’c ChaseVivacccio ▲ 10 lbs
Youngster who won on chasing debut and impressed with good jumping over todays course and distance.
The race that Vivaccio won had Cody Wyoming in second place. The form has been franked with Cody coming out twice since with a win and second place (very well bet of each occasion).
The handicapper has taken no chances with the selection but this one could be a typical Venetia Williams progressive younster at 5 yrs.
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Here are the major movers from last week’s races and the latest list as contrasted with the previous handicappers weekly list.Hurdlers
L’Ami Serge (IRE) ▲ 14 lbs
Arzal (FR) ▲ 13 lbs
Orchard Road (USA) ▲ 13 lbs
Underwood (FR) ▲ 12 lbs
Wicked Spice (IRE) ▲ 12 lbs
American Life (FR) ▲ 10 lbs
Chestertern (GB) ▲ 10 lbs
Lower Hope Dandy (GB) ▲ 10 lbs
One For Hocky (IRE) ▲ 10 lbs
Vazaro Delafayette (FR) ▲ 10 lbsChasers
Notonebuttwo (IRE) ▲ 17 lbs
Ballydague Lady (IRE) ▲ 15 lbs
Ray Diamond (GB) ▲ 12 lbs
Hey Big Spender (IRE) ▲ 11 lbs
No Buts (GB) ▲ 11 lbs
Wilton Milan (IRE) ▲ 11 lbs
Monetaire (FR) ▲ 10 lbs
Straidnahanna (IRE) ▲ 10 lbs++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Last week the Hennessy was the high profile race – below the revised handicap ratings for the the placed runners. The Handicapper was never going to let this race go by without considering the ratings :
29-Nov-14 NEWBURY
3:00pm HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE (HANDICAP) (GRADE 3)
(Class 1) (4yo+) (3m2f110y) 3m2½f Soft 21 fences
1st Many Clouds (IRE) 8/1 ▲ 9lbs
2nd Houblon Des Obeaux (FR) 50/1 ▲ 4lbs
3rd Merry King (IRE) 14/1 ▲ 3lbs
4th Monbeg Dude (IRE) 25/1 ▼ 2lbs
5th Smad Place (FR) 6/1 ▼ 2lbs____________________________________________________________________________
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