Handicap Hikes

[Alexander]

The aim here is to readily identify when a National Hunt runner has been recently raised by the handicapper and that runner makes a quick return outing. Circumstances are that a quick second outing often means that technically these can be quite well in regarding their current rating before the revised rating kicks in.
I’ve contrasted the weekly official BHA ratings and listed those that have been considerably raised. (latest ratings were published on Wed 20th Novemeber so these are the current ratings and will stand until next Wed when they will be revised and the process will start again with a new list of "hiked" runners).

Below is the list to consider for the week until & incl Tues 26th.
HURDLERS
Tigresse Bleue (GB) H▲ 15 lbs
Next Sensation (IRE) H▲ 13 lbs
Brinestine (USA) H▲ 12 lbs
Pension Plan (GB) H▲ 12 lbs
Ballyculla (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Hidden Identity (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Kings Apollo (GB) H▲ 11 lbs
Maggie Blue (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Flicka Williams (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
CHASERS
Next Sensation (IRE) C▲ 15 lbs
Richmond (FR) C▲ 15 lbs
Gullinbursti (IRE) C▲ 14 lbs
Night Alliance (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
Daymar Bay (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
Suburban Bay (GB) C▲ 12 lbs

From the list above; having an outing today (Friday 22nd)

Ballyculla (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs 2.50pm FFO takes on 7lb ex but still 4lbs well in
Night Alliance (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs 3.15pm Asc takes on 7lb ex but still 6lbs well in
Brinestine (USA) H▲ 12 lbs 3.50pm Asc takes on 7lb ex but still 5lbs well in

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[moehat]

First and second yesterday I was listening to it on the radio and made a note of the horses you mentioned. Really interesting stuff, please keep posting it.

[Alexander]

Hi Moehat,
Thanks for the interest. It’s comments from colleagues that gives me encouragement. I’ll give this a good trial, you can be sure of that.

Alex

[elcartero]

Two nice winners from three today, Alexander…well done…eminently logical and sensible approach. I wish you well…

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[Alexander]

Hi Elcartero
thanks for the comments – appreciated

Only runner from the original list at start of thread running Saturday is at Haydock 2.25pm (Hurdle)

Gullinbursti (IRE) C▲ 14 lbs

Gullinbursti creates a tangle to unweave: H’cap increase based on Chase performances (134 to 148) However, after five chase races now reverts back to hurdling for this race. In doing so, does not warrant a penalty,as would be the case if this were a chase. Hurdle form not hiked. The question posed; is his hike in chase form an indication that his hurdling form will show a similar improvement ?
Alex

[Alexander]

Kings Apollo

(GB) H▲ 11 lbs Sunday Towcester 2.45pm

Kings Apollo is the only runner from the list having an outing tomorrow. Handicapper has raised this one 11 lbs (77-88) for recent Amateur riders race. Incidentally, the second in that race Triple Dance has run since (Nov 19th) and disappionted when well backed favourite.

[Alexander]

The only runner from the original list running Monday:

Kings Apollo

(GB) H▲ 11 lbs
Runs Monday 25th Nov Ludlow 3.20pm
Making a rapid return having run yesterday (Sunday) perhaps unlucky in running and
fast finishing 2nd.

NON RUNNER TODAY

[Alexander]

For full breakdown of method and interpretaion see 1st thread entry above.

Here is the list for this week starting Wed 27th to Tues 3rd Dec.

Non of the list are running today Wed 27th.

HURDLERS
Free To Dream (IRE) H▲ 15 lbs
Amethyst Rose (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Dalrymple (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Orvita (FR) H▲ 11 lbs
Persian Herald (GB) H▲ 10 lbs
Proud Times (USA) H▲ 10 lbs
The Game Is A Foot (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs

CHASERS
Soudain (FR) C▲ 16 lbs
Highbury High (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
Sydney Paget (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
Lambs Cross (GB) C▲ 12 lbs
Niceonefrankie (GB) C▲ 11 lbs
Dynaste (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
Kid Cassidy (IRE) C▲ 10 lbs
Miss Tenacious (GB) C▲ 10 lbs
Riddleofthesands (IRE) C▲ 10 lbs

The list is exclusive to recent runs being hiked by the BHA handicappers. The list contrasts the published weekly lists (20th Nov & 27th Nov)

Quaddick Lake

is an interesting mover in the weights, although not increased within the period as mentioned above. Rated Chasing at 117 now. Risen from April 2011 Chasing rating of 95. Hurdle form has risen since the early chase rating also. In fact there has been 17 hurdles races since the last chase run and a rise to current hurdle level of 125. Obviously, the rise in hurdle form has encouraged the handicapper/s to raise the chase rating accordingly. I don’t see any engagements for this one at present but its worth noting.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[Alexander]

Hi
Three HURDLERS from the list due to run tomorrow Thurday 28th November.

Proud Times (USA) H▲ 10 lbs TH28/11 UTT1.55pm
Dalrymple (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs TH28/11 TAU3.55pm
The Game Is A Foot (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs TH28/11 TAU3.55pm

[Alexander]

Engaged from the list for Friday 29th November

Free To Dream (IRE) H▲ 15 lbs FRI 29/11 NEW 1.30pm
Highbury High (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs FR 29/11 DON 1.20pm & 3.05pm
Niceonefrankie (GB) C▲ 11 lbs FRI 29/11 DON 1.55pm & NEW 2.40pm

[Alexander]

This weekend only one runner from the list engaged, Sunday 1st Dec:

Persian Herald (GB) H▲ 10 lbs SUN 1/12 LEIC 1.30pm

[Alexander]

MONDAY 2nd December – no qualifiers from the list today.

[Alexander]

Tuesday 3rd December

– no runners qualified from the list for today.

[Alexander]

NEW LIST OF HIKED HANDICAPPER (Wed 4th to Tues 10th Dec)

HURDLERS

Portway Flyer (IRE) H▲ 19 lbs
Pass Muster (GB) H▲ 18 lbs
Neston Grace (GB) H▲ 16 lbs
Proud Times (USA) H▲ 15 lbs
My Guardian Angel (GB) H▲ 13 lbs
Pass The Time (GB) H▲ 12 lbs
Weather Babe (GB) H▲ 12 lbs
Ballyalton (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
Edlomond (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
My Oh Mount Brown (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
Swinging Hawk (GER) H▲ 10 lbs

CHASERS

Valdez (GB) C▲ 17 lbs
Ratify (GB) C▲ 15 lbs
Off The Ground (IRE) C▲ 15 lbs
Via Sundown (FR) C▲ 13 lbs
Tatenen (FR) C▲ 12 lbs
Great Ocean Road (IRE) C▲ 11 lbs
Baby Mix (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
Sablazo (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
Workbench (FR) C▲ 10 lbs

Due to run

TODAY

(Wed 4TH Dec) from the list above
Pass The Time (GB) H▲ 12 lbs LUDLOW 1.40PM

NON RUNNER

Portway Flyer (IRE) H▲ 19 lbs LUDLOW 3.10PM
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[Alexander]

Thurs 5th Dec
non from the list engaged today.

[Alexander]

ENGAGED FRIDAY 6TH Dec from the List

Portway Flyer (IRE) H▲ 19 lbs Fri 6th Dec Exe 12.55pm
Pass Muster (GB) H▲ 18 lbs Fri 6th Dec Exe 12.55pm
Neston Grace (GB) H▲ 16 lbs Fri 6th Dec San 3.25pm
Proud Times (USA) H▲ 15 lbs Fri 6th Dec San 3.25pm
My Guardian Angel (GB) H▲ 13 lbs Fri 6th Dec San 3.25pm

[Alexander]

ENGAGED Sat 7th Dec from the list
Swinging Hawk upped 10lbs on hurdle form now reverts to Wolverhampton’s flat Aw for Saturday evening.

Swinging Hawk (GER) H▲ 10 lbs Sat 7th Dec Wolv 8.20pm

[Author]

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