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I’d like to know what people think happened to Many Clouds in the 2015 Gold Cup if he’s somehow improved to a 171 rated performance some 2 years on?
Ok, hear me out. My theory might be completely insane, but maybe, JUST MAYBE, he wasn’t as good then as he was on Saturday?
The state of some of these posts…
I’d like to know what people think happened to Many Clouds in the 2015 Gold Cup if he’s somehow improved to a 171 rated performance some 2 years on?
Well his GC run was off the back of a real slog in the Cotswold. As was Smad Place’s GC run, and that was one of my concerns about Thistlecrack having a hard race in the Cotswold. With MC, it was also prior to his breathing op.
For all that assumptions are not ideal, we’re in a business where they have to be made or very few bets would ever be placed. I don’t expect to be anywhere near the majority with my own take on Saturday’s race, but I’ll hold to it all the same until events prove me wrong.
Why bother replying to that extent? Look at your signature and then ignore the post.
I’d like to know what people think happened to Many Clouds in the 2015 Gold Cup if he’s somehow improved to a 171 rated performance some 2 years on?
Ok, hear me out. My theory might be completely insane, but maybe, JUST MAYBE, he wasn’t as good then as he was on Saturday?
The state of some of these posts…
Are you being serious??
He went to that Gold Cup on the back of three straight wins…reappeared that season to win a listed chase…then wo the Hennessy, arguably one of the strongest Hennessy’s form wise for many a year, then won the Cotswold before going off a fancied runner in the Gold Cup…
Just to remind you that he was a quality horse…and breathing wasn’t an issue he won the Grand National some 5 weeks later!
So, I’d very much say the horse was in the form of his life that year but for some reason was well below par in the GC…
If you want to join that debating point like an adult instead of petty, childish comments then maybe you could offer your reason why you think he was so well beaten in that GC while seemingly in top form that year?
Ok, Many Clouds was a 150 horse, Thistlecrack is 150, Smad Place is 140 and end of discussion. I literally cannot be bothered to argue over such a stupid point.
Ah right, ok!
When you thought you were right the other day you felt the urge to reply to just a simple question I asked with a war and peace like reply…
Now you can’t be bothered and act like my teenager…and you call me an idiot…
Maybe he didn’t run to form that day, maybe they took it easy on him given he had the National coming up, maybe he wasn’t as good then, etc. Not really unheard of for chasers to improve from 8 to 10, is it?
Btw, get yourself acquainted with this other long-time improver. Zamorston, Cue Card. Cue Card, Zamorston.
I’d like to know what people think happened to Many Clouds in the 2015 Gold Cup if he’s somehow improved to a 171 rated performance some 2 years on?
Possible reasons Zammer:
One thing is for sure, Many Clouds was well below the 2014 Hennessey and 2015 Cotswold Chase winning form in finishing 24 lengths 6th in the 2015 Gold Cup. Timeform have him around a stone below his then best.
May be 2015 Cotswold Chase took too much out of Many Clouds and didn’t recover in time for the 2015 Gold Cup.
May be there was just something minor on the day, that Many Clouds got over quickly.
Oliver Sherwood wasn’t in bad form going in to the 2015 Gold Cup, but was in excellent form at the time of the 2015 Grand National and similarly in excellent form going in to Saturday’s race.
May be the ground on Gold Cup day (which was firmer than either 2014 Hennessey or 2015 Cotswold Chase) did not place enough emphasis on stamina. Won the Grand National on still firmer, but in the latter it’s the distance of 3m3f that made it the test of stamina.
Last year – like most Grand National winners – Many Clouds may well have been trained for one race alone… And/or had the wind problem. Therefore, in the 2016 Cotswold, did not show what a top form Many Clouds could actually do.
This race may well have been the first time since his Grand National victory where Many Clouds was both in A1 condition and with optimum conditions (optimum being a test of stamina and competitive race he needs to grind out his very best performance).
Value Is EverythingI’ve completely changed my mind about this. Outlander wins. The last 2 seasons, the only horse who’s been better than Djakadam has won the Gold Cup; Coneygree and Don Cossack. Cue Card, Don Poli and Carlingford Lough did beat Djakadam after the Gold Cup, but I think the 7yo Djakadam was just tired after a gruelling race behind Don Cossack – it was so gruelling that DC didn’t even come back from it. Djakadam has plenty of wins over Don Poli, proving he was below form at Aintree when finishing 3rd behind Don Poli.
The only horse who’s beaten Djakadam this year is Outlander, so Outlander wins the Gold Cup. Fits all the trends too.
1st Outlander
2nd Djakadam
3rd ThistlecrackAlthough I wouldn’t mind Minella Rocco winning/placing either!
Although I wouldn’t mind Minella Rocco winning/placing either!
Minella Rocco crosses the finish line on Saturday
There’s no way that 17L back to Smad Place is legit. What would be the motivation to ride him out to get as close as possible when 3rd was already secure? I’m guessing but probably 10L a fairer reflection of superiority.
Fair point, but then the same must apply to his Hennessy run
I’m not one for a length means this or that in handicaps. It holds much more true at the top level although there are plenty of variables there, too. But I do believe – and the time sectionals reinforce this – that Saturday’s race was a much better contest than many are assuming, because they are rating it on Many Clouds ‘old’ form – understandably.
A breathing op turned Cue Card around at about the same age. Why shouldn’t it have done so for Many Clouds?
Good luck with all the time theories. You didn’t need them to be able analyse jump races years ago and guess what you still don’t. They are an easy way in for those who take a mechanical approach to the game and a talking point for those looking to create a little niche for themselves.
Most people I have heard have been very ready to talk up the form of the race. Other than myself and Zamorston who else has questioned the value? As usual the media appear as one in suggesting Many Clouds has suddenly produced a career best. I say suddenly because he ran to around 160 on his previous start.
Minella Rocco is certainly interesting, has the hallmarks of a Synchronised type horse potentially – but could be an Irish National horse instead?
Stilvi, I’ve always paid attention to times in races. It’s not what drives my betting but if it reinforces my observations about an animal it adds a lot of confidence to the punting side. Sectionals I wasn’t so big on because I didn’t understand how advocates were using them. Now that I do I’m a convert.
As to the observations of others about the value of Saturday’s form, I can tell you that you and Zam are by no means out on a limb. There are plenty on twitter who appear to have been waiting, a hand at the ear, listening for the bursting of the Thistlecrack bubble, with some almost celebrating it.
You choose to believe the form is no good and that it confirms your verdict on the KG rating. I choose to stick with my original assessment that the horse is a superstar and that means that either Many Clouds improved on anything he’s done in the past, and by quite some way, or Thistlecrack had a very bad day at the office. I’m swayed toward the former although it could be a bit of one and a bit of the other. The Gold Cup will be decider for me assuming everything runs its race.
That’s twice recently you’ve mentioned people creating ‘little niches’ for themselves as though it were a nasty habit. Some, like the Blues Brother on here and other time advocates do specialise. GT specialises in analysing percentages for value. VTC specialises in staying chasers. I wouldn’t call what I do specialising in anything; I’d like to be known as a specialist but I don’t put in enough time and work. I simply have a keen interest in what makes high class individuals do what they do in the fashion that they do it. I take other factors into account – the form of the trainer, the jockey’s capabilities, very occasionally comments of connections, speed ratings and, often, the opinions of people I respect. Hardly niche, although I’d be happy to claim such a thing were it predictably profitable.
Stilvi’s niche other than his niche is finding out everybody else’s niche
nice……!!
Stilvi’s niche btw is specialising in bumpers
those of the non Mullins variety, does a good job by all accounts
Cue Card was a great early callGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Stilvi,
Considering Many Clouds put up (at the time) a career best to win the Grand National as an 8 year old, at the time looking capable of better. Immediately after his win many of us backed him to win again… And considering most horses reach their peak after the age of 8 it looked as if Many Clouds would improve on his Grand National form…
Lets look at his runs after that famous victory:Badly needed reappearance at Wetherby.
Excellent 4 lengths 2nd to Don Poli in listed 3m1f event on very soft ground. A race that tested stamina. Taking in to account gave 5 lbs, actually comes out a better horse than the winner. Don Poli didn’t progress in the way some of us hoped, but did win the Grade 1 Lexus, finished 14 lenths 3rd to a better than average Gold Cup winner Don Cossack despite a questionable ride, 9 lengths 2nd to another timeform 180+ horse Cue Card in Betfred Bowl. Disappointed at Punchestown and Down Royal before right back to form with 2 1/4 lengths 2nd to Outlander in Lexus… Imagine Many Clouds finishing a length (pound) in front of Don Poli in all those races. So in all bar two events Don Poli franked the Many Clouds form. In a race that tested stamina Many Clouds 2nd is very similar form to his Grand National win.
Then Many Clouds was 12 lengths 2nd to Hennessey winner Smad Place giving the winner 4 lbs in 2015 Cotswold Chase 3m1f on testing ground. Call it an 8 lbs beating. Bit disappointing, but this was in the lead up to the Grand National – the owner’s favourite race and main target. Was Many Clouds in A1 conditon?
Then won a Kelso listed race without needing to be anywhere near best by an easy 10 lengths, giving runner-up Unioniste 4 lbs. Many Clouds can’t be criticised for that National prep.
Then – main target – looked a danger to all 5 out in Grand National before weakening badly. Found to have a breathing problem…
Had a breathing operation…
Won reappearance, this wasn’t form up to Many Clouds best, but considering the problem/op surely very encouraging? Especially as a stayer who finds plenty for presure is difficult to get in A1 condition after a long time out… Gave 5 lbs and a 3 1/2 lengths beating to Le Mercurey without needing to be asked for everything… And we also know he finds more (ie puts in a better performance) if pressed hard…
So, is it that surprising Many Clouds improved for both the outing and being pushed by Thistlecrack to put up his best ever performance?
Look at all the above races. Which race did Many Clouds have as good an opportunity of putting up a career best since the Grand National previous best?
Is it just that Many Clouds hasn’t had the combination of being in A1 condition, with a test of stamina and competitive race (someone to push him) needed to produce his very best ratings performances?Unlike Joe, I don’t believe Many Clouds improved a lot. I think Thistlecrack ran to a similar level as he did at Kempton. Which as far as Thistlecrack’s form goes – considering didn’t jump anywhere near as well – strongly suggests he’s capable of better.
Many Clouds was rated by Timeform 168 after his 2015 Grand National success, they now rate the 2nd to Don Poli 168 too and Saturday’s run 169. I’d rate the latter two or three pounds higher on 171 or 172, which is just 3 or 4 lbs higher than Many Clouds 8 year old Grand National victory.
Value Is EverythingSo, is it that surprising Many Clouds improved for both the outing and being pushed by Thistlecrack to put up his best ever performance?
No
Many Clouds was rated by Timeform 168 after his 2015 Grand National success, they now rate the 2nd to Don Poli 168 too and Saturday’s run 169. I’d rate the latter two or three pounds higher on 171 or 172, which is just 3 or 4 lbs higher than Many Clouds 8 year old Grand National victory.
I’d expect a horse of Many Clouds’ quality and profile to be capable of placing in a Gold Cup. Since Don Poli finished 3rd last year, it seems very reasonable to rate them at a similar level.
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