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If I had to pick something to be running him down late on it would be Minella Rocco.
For whom there is a sea of blue, into 20s
Indeed Zarkava seems Thistlecrack’s defeat has a few people willing to delve into the market with something at bigger prices to beat him. I have a little bit on Minella Rocco e/w @ 33’s along with a couple of admittedly now probably dead little e/w bets on More Of That and Vroum Vroum Mag. The way Minella Rocco finished in the four miler last year passing Native River along the way does read quite well if he can jump round soundly. We’ll know more about if his crashing fall last time out has affected his confidence next time out in the Irish gold cup.
As always I will study the GC with an open mind the evening before and I am not trying to knock Thistlecrack, however, some of his defenders (including the trainer) have come out with some comments which seem illogical to me!
T & MC have been given RPRs of 174 for Saturday, SP 157. The RP have probably erred on the side of caution again (as with BDM last week) and appear to have rated the race around SP whose 157 has been plucked out of midair.
Nevertheless, 174 is 4 below Thistlecrack’s KG rating so Sat was apparently NOT his best chase run. He was all out on Sat but won the Stayers Hurdle recording 178 whilst waving to the crowd. The horse was just as impressive winning last year’s Cleeve on VERY Heavy & at Aintree on going as Soft as Sat. He handles all going and has no preference. His 2 chases in which he has not jumped fluently are his 2 chases at Cheltenham (one on G-S). Even on Good the GC is a war of attrition, no horse can retain what should be left in the tank up the hill if lacking fluency.
I don’t care what festival race the horse runs in but two principles usually apply for trainers: run a horse in the race circumstances to which it is best suited (i.e. what it’s best at) & run a horse in the race it has the best chance of winning. Thistlecrack, to this point, is a better hurdler and has 1 serious rival in the Stayers but several in the GC!
Native River on the drift out to 8/1
If Smad Place ran to his Hennessy form on Saturday, and I can see no reason that he didn’t, then, for students of strict form lines (which I am not, though I can see the power of the discrepancy here) NR has an almost impossible task against Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup on what is much more likely to be Thistlecrack’s ground.
Smad Place gave NR 11lbs at Newbury and finished within 10 lengths of him making him just about the same horse on the accepted scale. NR didn’t get the chance to show for certain he had improved in the Welsh National as the terms were so favourable for him.
I don’t think Smad Place is reliable at top races where his stamina is asked questions…he’s been well beat in 2 Gold Cups and a King George!
If comparing strict form lines though he’s been further behind Djakadam in 2 Gold Cups than he was behind Thistlecrack on Saturday!
He wants proper soft ground these days, Zam, and a good stamina test. He won a Hennessy on soft and a Cotswold on heavy, both by 12 lengths and powering away at the end. Saturday should have been ideal for him after a nice opener at Aintree and a good run in the Hennessy. Proven at the track and trip and in the conditions and seemed to race with his usual enthusiasm, still in the lead three out then fading steadily.
A shame MC will never be able to prove that the form of the race is top class, as I strongly suspect it is.
He wants proper soft ground these days, Zam
He doesn’t want it soft, he needs it soft to keep up!
Native River on the drift out to 8/1
If Smad Place ran to his Hennessy form on Saturday, and I can see no reason that he didn’t, then, for students of strict form lines (which I am not, though I can see the power of the discrepancy here) NR has an almost impossible task against Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup on what is much more likely to be Thistlecrack’s ground.
Smad Place gave NR 11lbs at Newbury and finished within 10 lengths of him making him just about the same horse on the accepted scale. NR didn’t get the chance to show for certain he had improved in the Welsh National as the terms were so favourable for him.
At the weights and distances, Smad Place did put up as good a performance as winner Native River in the Hennessey. However, Native River is known for idling badly on run-ins. Native River is a better horse than distances make out… Native River’s current full ability is very difficult to pin down. What’s more, is a young and improving racehorse. “Discrepancy” isn’t worth making; Native River has a far greater chance than Smad Place.
As I said earlier, have no problem believing Many Clouds produced a career best to win the Cotswold Chase. However, I can not believe Many Clouds improved as much as he’d need to beat a top form Smad Place 17 lengths off level weights. If Smad Place ran to his Hennessey form it puts Many Clouds alongside the likes of Denman.
Value Is EverythingThere’s no way that 17L back to Smad Place is legit. What would be the motivation to ride him out to get as close as possible when 3rd was already secure? I’m guessing but probably 10L a fairer reflection of superiority.
I thought at the time Smad Place’s Hennessy win was fantastic…then the other week I looked back at it…looking at the 6 or 7 horses behind him and what they’ve done since the form of it is shocking! I maintain…at the top level Smad Place just bang average…
Yes, he was also a 8yo winner of the race, which instantly throws up question marks about its quality.
There’s no way that 17L back to Smad Place is legit. What would be the motivation to ride him out to get as close as possible when 3rd was already secure? I’m guessing but probably 10L a fairer reflection of superiority.
Fair point, but then the same must apply to his Hennessy run
I’m not one for a length means this or that in handicaps. It holds much more true at the top level although there are plenty of variables there, too. But I do believe – and the time sectionals reinforce this – that Saturday’s race was a much better contest than many are assuming, because they are rating it on Many Clouds ‘old’ form – understandably.
A breathing op turned Cue Card around at about the same age. Why shouldn’t it have done so for Many Clouds?
But I do believe – and the time sectionals reinforce this – that Saturday’s race was a much better contest than many are assuming, because they are rating it on Many Clouds ‘old’ form – understandably.
A breathing op turned Cue Card around at about the same age. Why shouldn’t it have done so for Many Clouds?
1 – Sanity is not statistical.
2 – Assumption is the mother of all screw ups
I am not at all surprised Many Clouds was able to run to such a high level – a quick look at the last few 8/9yo Grand National winners will show that he should have been able to run to a higher level than he’d shown in the past – and I have bets from months ago which will back that up, incase people want to claim after-timing.
I’d like to know what people think happened to Many Clouds in the 2015 Gold Cup if he’s somehow improved to a 171 rated performance some 2 years on?
I’d like to know what people think happened to Many Clouds in the 2015 Gold Cup if he’s somehow improved to a 171 rated performance some 2 years on?
Well his GC run was off the back of a real slog in the Cotswold. As was Smad Place’s GC run, and that was one of my concerns about Thistlecrack having a hard race in the Cotswold. With MC, it was also prior to his breathing op.
For all that assumptions are not ideal, we’re in a business where they have to be made or very few bets would ever be placed. I don’t expect to be anywhere near the majority with my own take on Saturday’s race, but I’ll hold to it all the same until events prove me wrong.
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