- This topic has 544 replies, 77 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Problem with the going these days is there’s too many different kinds!
Back in the day it was one, or a combination or mix of good, firm, soft, heavy…there’s that many being invented these days it’s becoming almost impossible for punters…
Just look at Tom Scudamore after the Cotswold Chase…he invented the going description….soft, gluey to holding in places!
What chance have we got….
We’ll see just why Bristol des Mai is a Gold cup horse today when top weight Otago Trail humps 11-12 round Sandown,had it been anywhere else I wouldn’t be confident Venetia williams horse could give that sort of weight away but Sandown is a course suited to top weights so 11/2 has been taken.I shall re-invest some of the winnings back on the big Grey at 14/1 methinks.
Each to their own regarding the time stuff. You may always have had an interest but I get the impression there are plenty of punters/pundits who didn’t but suddenly don’t think they can be taken seriously unless they do. As a punter it is all about backing winners and turning a profit. If I can do that without making any reference to times then plenty of other people can do the same. Plenty of betting is about experience and I think latching on to times is just a relatively easy entry for people who have little or no experience.
Do you not take any notice of pace, Stilvi?
It would be impossible not to. Everyone will misread races even if you combine what your eyes tell you and times. If you are a poor race-reader then I doubt all the jiggery-pokery with time analysis isn’t going to make a lot of difference. If I found that my interpretation was consistently wrong then it would be time to try something different. It is about finding a system that works for you. I can’t see the point of spending lots of time on something if it produces nothing much more than a talking point.
Each to their own regarding the time stuff. You may always have had an interest but I get the impression there are plenty of punters/pundits who didn’t but suddenly don’t think they can be taken seriously unless they do. As a punter it is all about backing winners and turning a profit. If I can do that without making any reference to times then plenty of other people can do the same. Plenty of betting is about experience and I think latching on to times is just a relatively easy entry for people who have little or no experience.
Do you not take any notice of pace, Stilvi?
It would be impossible not to. Everyone will misread races even if you combine what your eyes tell you and times. If you are a poor race-reader then I doubt all the jiggery-pokery with time analysis isn’t going to make a lot of difference. If I found that my interpretation was consistently wrong then it would be time to try something different. It is about finding a system that works for you. I can’t see the point of spending lots of time on something if it produces nothing much more than a talking point.
Sectional Times is surely just a more accurate way of judging “Pace” in races? ie Whether each part of the race was run very slow, slow, moderate, fair, average, good, strong or overly strong. When reading a race it’s obviously important to take pace in to account – to judge whether it tested speed or stamina at the trip, which horses were suited or unsuited by the pace and if anything had a tactical advantage. ie Which horses can be marked up and therefore could start at value odds next time… And/or one flattered by their finishing position who’s worth opposing if in a race unlikely to be run similarly.
Didn’t take much notice of sectionals until it became apparent I was missing things. eg Looking by eye; obvious pace wasn’t great early and overall time only what you might expect from a race of that quality – appeared nothing out of the ordinary. Yet, looking at Sectionals gives facts (not opinion). Pace was in fact fairly slow early, but picked up halfway and they were really motoring from four to one out (overly so) before staying power paid on the run-in. ie Horse who made ground when the pace was at its strongest put up a better performance than distances suggest.
Sometimes I would see this kind of thing by eye alone – am a pretty good judge if I do say so myself – but sometimes I’d miss it. Or even worse mistake a race that tested stamina for one that tested speed – reaching completely the wrong conclusions.
Value Is EverythingWe’ll see just why Bristol des Mai is a Gold cup horse today when top weight Otago Trail humps 11-12 round Sandown,had it been anywhere else I wouldn’t be confident Venetia williams horse could give that sort of weight away but Sandown is a course suited to top weights so 11/2 has been taken.I shall re-invest some of the winnings back on the big Grey at 14/1 methinks.
Oh dear, we agree!
I’m on Otago Trail too Gord.Value Is EverythingWe’ll see just why Bristol des Mai is a Gold cup horse today when top weight Otago Trail humps 11-12 round Sandown,had it been anywhere else I wouldn’t be confident Venetia williams horse could give that sort of weight away but Sandown is a course suited to top weights so 11/2 has been taken.I shall re-invest some of the winnings back on the big Grey at 14/1 methinks.
Oh dear, we agree!
I’m on Otago Trail too Gord.If the Classy ‘Bristol’ was running today Ginge we’d be saying ‘Toooo soon’ but this fellow Otago Trail is an out and out stayer who will love it round Sandown.Stamina will win the day and even though he looks horribly weighted he’s up against No gold cup horses.Good luck.
We’ll see just why Bristol des Mai is a Gold cup horse today when top weight Otago Trail humps 11-12 round Sandown,had it been anywhere else I wouldn’t be confident Venetia williams horse could give that sort of weight away but Sandown is a course suited to top weights so 11/2 has been taken.I shall re-invest some of the winnings back on the big Grey at 14/1 methinks.
Oh dear, we agree!
I’m on Otago Trail too Gord.If the Classy ‘Bristol’ was running today Ginge we’d be saying ‘Toooo soon’ but this fellow Otago Trail is an out and out stayer who will love it round Sandown.Stamina will win the day and even though he looks horribly weighted he’s up against No gold cup horses.Good luck.
Just another day in the office….I’m sorry if I come across as boring.
Nice Gord. Couldn’t see any value in the race myself.
Cheers Zark but my assessment of the race was ‘Otago’ ran slightly below form at Haydock,still makes Bristol de Mai look even better though.
Beg To Differ only puts it all in once in a blue moon, Rock The Kasbah seems temperamental too and a doubtful stayer in that ground – even more so Irish Saint, Sandy Beach exposed, Loose Chips was going to get an easy lead (saver) but thoroughly exposed, Turban’s form was for Mullins – now Paul Henderson, Anthony disappointed last time and not sure to stay and last time he won (so impressive) was all about speed at the trip on goodish ground… In Bristol De Mai’s race OT was value for beating the rest by further than distances (without clouting two out). Timeform top rated too. So I don’t think Otago Trail needed to improve on his best form tbh.
Value Is EverythingI’d be surprised if he were able to run to form given the effort he put in 2 weeks ago
I’d be surprised if he were able to run to form given the effort he put in 2 weeks ago
That did go through my mind too Zark. But we are talking about a trainer better at quick turn arounds than most. Good at running them under penalties, so two weeks break wasn’t so bad for her horses.
Value Is EverythingNot that it matters but I was on it too at a very good morning price. I was astounded OT wasnt shorter. The only doubt was the quick turnaround but as rightly stated Venetia is adept with that
The key points here are the nonsense about “top weight in soft ground” too often spouted and the “clever jonjo and his connections” assumptions which never seem to stand up
Not his fault but both factors influenced the market to our favor I reckon
Can’t help but thinking, decent ground and step up to the gold cup trip will suit Road To Riches down to the ground. He’s been campaigned to sidestep the other Gigginstown horses for the best part of a season and a half and wasn’t allowed to run in the gold cup under instruction last season. It was clear Noel Meade wanted him to run in the gold cup and said the ryanair trip would be too short for him. Was going great guns before coming down two out in the punchestwon gold cup, and with NRNB he’s a cracking 50/1 each way chance before running Sunday, where, if he wins, his price will halve at least. Deserves a crack at this race rather than the ryanair, and hopefully Meade will get his way this time. Hoping for a good run Sunday and think this a very good bet at 50/1 given that Thistlecrack isn’t bombproof, Cue Card “might” just be past it, Djakadam (place only at best) and doubts about many others, this fella looks solid for a place at least to me. If he runs of course…..
Big day tomorrow for both ‘Native River’ and Bristol des Mai…I expect the latter to win but my loyalty to ‘Native’ means its a no bet race for me.I expect the Tizzard horse to make all and try and grind it out but 3m is the minimum trip for this trail blazer so I reckon Daryl will have enough toe to win the day.I hope there’s only a length or so between them as they are both proper Gold Cup horses who have every chance at Cheltenham.For ‘Bristol’ to win the Gold cup though he needs to win whereas ‘Native’ could get beat tomorrow but still win the Big one as its a bigger test of stamina..A cracking Cat and Mouse race awaits I’m sure.
dont rule out soft ground come march .. what comes up must come down .. been in this neck of the woods for almost 40 yrs. Think NTD has a good bunch of horses atm and Bristol is his staying chaser.
Weather wise its not been really wet here yet for a long time but if we get one for 3-4 days then the game changes
A great performance from ‘Native River’ today and he is certainly a Gold cup player,I wouldn’t be confident about him on faster surface though.Bristol des mai ran flat there and he’s gone out to 36’s on the machine,I think he’s better than that and have taken it.Come cheltenham Daryl needs to ride him like he knows he’ll stay and make all,its win or bust for him as he did not enjoy todays tactics.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.