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3:40 Fakenham
79 points @ 3/1 (Sportsbook) Jethro* (min 11/4)58 points @ 11/8 (Sky) Salto Chisco (min 11/8)
Value Is EverythingCheers Buckers.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
36 points @ 11/2 (Sportsbook) Thistlecrack* (min 11/2)
31 points @ 16/1 (PP) Djakadam* (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingHi gt, I’m intrigued by the thistlecrack ante post bet.
Knowing that value is everything to you, 11/2 appears a skinny price to back any horse 4.5 months out from a race.
Do you have a percentage chance worked out for a horse actaually turning up for a race e.g. 1 week out from a race there is 99% chance it wil line up, 1 month out that might be 90%, 2 months 85%, 3 months 80% etc. Obviously some horses are more fragile than others however there will be an average.
So taking the % chance of even lining up for the race you must think thistlecrack has a significant chance of winning should he line up?
Backing him at 11/2 or better assumes a 15.4% (or better) chance of winning. Assume 80% chance of lining up, you therefore have thistlecrack as having a 19% chance of winning on the day, or have him as 4/1 ish (4.2/1 being precise) shot on gold cup day.
As I say, it’s the lining up % I’m intrigued you would use depending on time until race day?
Hope my question makes sense!I take a different view in that I am very much with you in respect of Thistlecrack but don’t understand why you would want to be with Djakadam. I backed him twice at 50/1 for the 2015 renewal but although he went fairly close there were not too many excuses. All being well I would expect Coneygree to more than confirm that form. This year Djakadam was almost certainly fortunate to finish second. He just looks too slow to me and I am not sure there is any improvement to come.
3:20 Wetherby
60 points @ 4/5 (Sky) Cue Card (min 8/11)41 points @ 12/1 (PP) Virak* (min 9/1)
Value Is Everything2:45 Wetherby
30 points @ 15/2 (Sportsbook) Native River* (min 13/2)Value Is Everything2:45 Wetherby
30 points @ 15/2 (Sportsbook) Native River* (min 13/2)saver:
35 points @ 2/1 (betfair) Ballyoptic (min 15/8)(£58 available)Value Is Everything2:45 Wetherby
30 points @ 15/2 (Sportsbook) Native River* (min 13/2)saver:
35 points @ 2/1 (betfair) Ballyoptic (min 15/8)(£58 available)33 points @ 9/1 (VC) Lil Rockerfeller* (min 8/1)
Value Is Everything3:35 Ascot
40 points @ 8/1 (betfair) A Good Skin* (min 7/1)(£71 available)Value Is Everything3:35 Ascot
40 points @ 8/1 (betfair) A Good Skin* (min 7/1)(£71 available)50 points @ 12/1 (B365) Buckhorn Timothy* (min 17/2)
saver:
30 points @ 3/1 (sportsbook) Saphir De Rheu (min 3/1)Value Is EverythingHi gt, I’m intrigued by the thistlecrack ante post bet.
Knowing that value is everything to you, 11/2 appears a skinny price to back any horse 4.5 months out from a race.
Do you have a percentage chance worked out for a horse actaually turning up for a race e.g. 1 week out from a race there is 99% chance it wil line up, 1 month out that might be 90%, 2 months 85%, 3 months 80% etc. Obviously some horses are more fragile than others however there will be an average.
So taking the % chance of even lining up for the race you must think thistlecrack has a significant chance of winning should he line up?
Backing him at 11/2 or better assumes a 15.4% (or better) chance of winning. Assume 80% chance of lining up, you therefore have thistlecrack as having a 19% chance of winning on the day, or have him as 4/1 ish (4.2/1 being precise) shot on gold cup day.
As I say, it’s the lining up % I’m intrigued you would use depending on time until race day?
Hope my question makes sense!I do take in to account likelihood of lining up odbball (included in amongst every other aspect of form etc) at time of striking the bet. ie Have taken in to account the early years of very few appearances in bumpers – Tizzard is on record as saying it was only “little issues” (nothing major)… And his last two very full seasons seem to confirm that and he now appears sound. Coneygree had one sound season in three. Don Cossack will be out until at least the new year and could easily miss out. Those who’ve been recently unsound are imo more likely to get other problems or recurrence of an old injury. So although all horses have a chance of non-participation, Thistlecrack’s rivals non-participation is more likely to increase his own chance and not only through injury. eg Doubt whether Vautour will line up because of stamina doubts and imo is a ridiculous price. Then there’s Cue Card who will be 11 years old come March and most 11 year olds are on the downgrade. So although on ability/form the four immediately behind Thistlecrack are currently superior, they all have sizable negatives. Thistlecrack’s chance is just as much about his rivals as it is himself.
The way he jumped Chepstow means is highly likely to reach at least the same level over fences as hurdles – as long as he can jump as well in behind horses as in front… And the further he goes the better he should be – another quarter mile is almost certain to suit given breeding and the way he races.
Haven’t worked out a 100% book on the Gold Cup – that’s practically impossible when something could improve through handicaps or a The Fellow coming from France etc. What I do do is to consider the average rating needed to win a Gold Cup and whether (looking at those 40/1 or shorter) it will take an above or below average performance to win it.
11/2 may sound short, but it’s all relative. Once took 9/4 ante-post at this time of year for Cheltenham, Big Buck’s who I predicted would start odds-on. If Thistlecrack doesn’t start 4/1 or shorter I’ll be disappointed.
Value Is EverythingI take a different view in that I am very much with you in respect of Thistlecrack but don’t understand why you would want to be with Djakadam. I backed him twice at 50/1 for the 2015 renewal but although he went fairly close there were not too many excuses. All being well I would expect Coneygree to more than confirm that form. This year Djakadam was almost certainly fortunate to finish second. He just looks too slow to me and I am not sure there is any improvement to come.
Djakadam definitely did not have any excuses in either of his Gold Cup seconds.
Coneygree has had a hock injury since and only one full season in his last three needs to be taken in to account when assessing prices. Is he going to remain sound and if so is he going to return as good as ever? May even need to improve, at the age of 10 that’s a bigger ask… Although lighter raced animals sometimes do. Djakadam seems sounder and younger.
When Coneygree beat Djakadam the latter was only 6 years old and is young enough to improve again at 8. When a horse finishes runner-up in the same race two seasons in a row, punters tend to think it’s run to the same form. Road To Riches was only 2 lengths behind Djakadam in the 2015 Gold Cup, beaten 6 1/2 in the 2015 Punchestown Gold Cup. At the time many people thought the pair well below form because Don Cossack was 7 lengths in front. Last year’s Gold Cup suggests otherwise. I believe Djakadam improved a bit (with RTR a little below his best) at Punchestown and improved again at Cheltenham, the 4 1/2 lengths 2nd to The Don being imo better form than 1 1/2 lengths 2nd to Coneygree.
Djakadam also beat Valseur Lido 12 lengths in the John Durkan over 2 1/2 miles, so he’s no sluggard. Although runner-up improved afterwards when 6 lengths 2nd to the easy winner Vautour in the Ryanair (with Road To Riches beaten a total of 6 1/2 by Vautour)… ease of victory goes some way to confirm how good Djakadam is. imo Not quite as good as Vautour – but that one’s an unlikely stayer. Not as good as Don Cossack – but that one’s a doubtful starter. Not quite as good as Cue Card – but that one will be 11 years old and not absolutely sure to stay either. Bit better than Coneygree – for reasons above…
…And yet Djakadam is top priced 16/1 compared with Coneygree 12/1, Cue Card 10/1, Don Cossack 10/1 and Vautour half that price at 8/1.
Unless bookies know something I don’t about Djakadam’s soundness and/or likely target (2m5f would be ok on soft/heavy, but not on good or good-soft) 16/1 is too big to ignore imo, Stilvi. Deserves to be priced up at least the same as Don and Cue and all three should be ahead of Vautour.
Value Is EverythingCheers Buckers.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
36 points @ 11/2 (Sportsbook) Thistlecrack* (min 11/2)
31 points @ 16/1 (PP) Djakadam* (min 12/1)With stable companion Cue Card a little disappointing today. Although that could be to do with pace (other prominent runners Dynaste and Virak well beaten) now make Thistlecrack a 20% chance. So a further:
16 points @ 11/2 (Sportsbook) Thistlecrack* (min 5/1)
(52 points in all)
Value Is Everything
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