- This topic has 182 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Really looking forward to the 2016/2017 jumps season.
As always, fully expect this thread to make a good profit.METHOD:
I analyse the form “book” Timeform Race Passes, together with my own horse racing knowledge to identify VALUE (horses priced up bigger than what I believe to be their fair chance of winning). Betting “the race” rather than “a horse”. Seldom do I only have one bet in a race. “Main bets” are usually the ones that I believe are best value, with “Savers” usually the lesser value bet/s. If wanting to reduce the number of bets you could try backing only the Main bets noted by a “*”. Savers are there primarily for my benefit. Reducing losing runs, therefore keeping my confidence up and “confidence” keeps me looking at races in the same PROFITABLE manner.STAKING:
Main bets are based on how much chance I believe the horse has and how much value I believe is in the bet.eg
3:50 Aintree
49 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Three Musketeers* (min 3/1)43 points @ 13/2 (B365) Royal Regatta* (min 6/1)
saver:
15 points @ 13/2 (L) Third Intention (min 13/2)Three Musketeers gets 49 points because:
I rated him a 28% chance (fair 5/2).
Available @ a best price of 3/1 (25%).
28 – 25 = 3
3 X 7 = 21
21 + 28 = 49
means 49 points is staked @ 3/1Royal Regatta I rated a 17% chance (fair 5/1).
Available @ a best price of 13/2 (13.3%)
17 – 13.3 = 3.7
3.7 X 7 = 25.9
25.9 + 17 = 42.9
means 43 points is staked @ 13/2The two stakes of 49 + 43 = 92
Third Intention was a top price of 13/2.
So I need to stake 15 points @ 13/2 to get enough back to cover the other 92.Occasionally I’ll reduce stakes to X 5 if going through a losing run or in race a bit tricky to work out. If too tricky there won’t be a bet.
The “X 7” I may increase this season if the trainer is in particularly good form. If the trainer gets an 8 out of 10 in my “trainers in form” ratings it’ll get X 8, 9 gets X 9 and 10 gets X 10.
As each way bets give a little more insurance they will get more money on them than a win only. Getting two thirds of the win bet each way.
So a win bet of 43 points @ 13/2 to win turns in to 29 points each way @ 13/2 (total stake of 58) because:
43 X 0.67 = 28.81I’ll sometimes reduce stakes to keep within the overall maximum race stakes of 150 points. Only a rare ante-post race will ever go over 150 eg Grand National (with stakes spread out).
Although expecting to make a profit, even profitable punters go through a long losing run now and again.
Stakes are usually between 80 and 125 points per race, occasionally increasing to around 150. So, if you’re following these tips… I’d recommendSay your usual stake is £10 per race and occasionally going up to £15 as a maximum bet, then I’d recommend each point being worth 10p.
If your usual stake per race is £50 going up to £75 max, then each point should be worth 50p
If your usual stake per race is £100 going up to £150 max, then each point should be worth £1
If your usual is £200 per race with a £300 max, then each point should be worth £2.00
If your usual is £500 with a £750 max, then each point should be worth £5.00
If your usual is £1000 with a £1500 max, then each point should be worth £10.00MARGIN FOR ERROR:
Nobody is 100% accurate in analysing/assessing betting markets, so a margin of error is wise. Normally odds need to be two prices greater than my idea of the fair price. eg I believed Three Musketeers a 28% 5/2 chance, so I would not normally back it at 11/4 but would @ 3/1 or greater. Putting the minimum price to take in brackets “(min 3/1)”. Expect prices to shorten up after I’ve backed them, if I believe a horse is value then there’s probably going to be other good judges recognising good value, forcing prices down. Only if I believe the form particularly easy to work out will I reduce this margin for error. Please do not take below the minimum price (unless there’s been non-runner/s since I put the bet up). If doing so be aware you’ll be going AGAINST my advice. Three Musketeers shortened up to a ridiculous 7/4, at that price I’d rather LAY it!Many of my bets are done/put up the evening before racing.
Value Is Everything3:50 Aintree
49 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Three Musketeers* (min 3/1)43 points @ 13/2 (B365) Royal Regatta* (min 6/1)
saver:
15 points @ 13/2 (L) Third Intention (min 13/2)Value Is EverythingGood luck with your new thread,I have backed Vibrato Valtat @ 11/2 in the 3.50 but I am looking forward to what should be a good race to watch.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Cheers CJ,
Nicholls is in unbelievably good form and Vibrato Valtat should run well.
Looking forward to the new season.
Value Is EverythingThree Musketeers was a good 5 1/4 lengths 4th in JLT when last seen and has only four chases to his name. The least exposed here and Skelton is in good form. Not so good form as Nicholls though! Vibrato Valtat is possily the most exposed here, on a 3 lbs higher mark than Exeter, 13 lbs worse off for a cosy 4 lengths victory in Haldon Gold Cup over Third Intention who himself is on a 10 lbs lower mark. A gentleman of a horse – “after you Sir” – Third Intention reserves his best to racing fresh and signs of a Tizzard return to form in recent days. However, doesn’t win often enough to apply a main bet. Royal Regatta has won at this meeting over hurdles. Isn’t the most consistent overall, but better record leading and could get a softish lead here (suspect Smad Place might want an easy prep). Smad Place is probably better over further and doubt he’ll be spot on until trying to retain the Hennessey crown. Sire De Grugy wouldn’t be out of this at his very best, one of my favourites, but jumping isn’t as consistently accurate these days. Strictly on “form” is “value”. Got to think if fully fit this yard won’t allow him to go off at 20/1 or 14/1 though. I’ll keep an eye on the market and back him if shortening up. Gods Own won the Haldon Gold Cup a couple of years ago on reappearance, but most of his best form is in the Spring. Sometimes runs freely fresh and at this trip that could be a problem.
Value Is EverythingThird Intention the saver won.
Days Stakes 107
Days Returns 112.5
Profit +5.5Value Is EverythingApparently the winner had another breathing op in July according to the Racing Post post-race article. Who knew?
Apparently the winner had another breathing op in July according to the Racing Post post-race article. Who knew?
Did Tom Segal mention it in his piece?
It is frustrating, might have made the winner a main bet had I known, Kasparov.Although suspect many have the op without it working.
At the moment, are we only getting to know if having a positive outcome?Value Is EverythingThanks VTC.
3:15 Bangor:
75 points @ 3/1 (B365) Captain McGuinley* (min 11/4)Value Is Everything3:15 Bangor:
75 points @ 3/1 (B365) Captain McGinley* (min 11/4)saver:
9 points @ 12/1 (betfair) What A Joke (min 10/1)(£12 available)Value Is Everything3:15 Bangor:
75 points @ 3/1 (B365) Captain McGinley* (min 11/4)saver:
9 points @ 12/1 (betfair) What A Joke (min 10/1)(£12 available)saver:
19 points @ 9/2 (VC) Fled Or Pled (min 9/2)Value Is Everything3:15 Bangor:
75 points @ 3/1 (B365) Captain McGinley* (min 11/4)saver:
9 points @ 12/1 (betfair) What A Joke (min 10/1)(£12 available)saver:
19 points @ 9/2 (VC) Fled Or Pled (min 9/2)Obviously Captain McGinley is no longer value @ around Evens. So if you did not get on @ 3/1 then the best bets are now What A Joke and Fled Or Pled each way @ around 14/1 and 9/1 respectively.
Value Is EverythingI have just been looking at Captain McGinley’s form (using the excellent Horserace base). There doesn’t appear to be much there (0/9) to justify evens except perhaps an OR of 112 after finishing fifth in a handicap at Exeter over a year ago. Well done Ginger for finding this one at a good price. I assume Timeform have something that the market has latched onto.
I have just been looking at Captain McGinley’s form (using the excellent Horserace base). There doesn’t appear to be much there (0/9) to justify evens except perhaps an OR of 112 after finishing fifth in a handicap at Exeter over a year ago. Well done Ginger for finding this one at a good price. I assume Timeform have something that the market has latched onto.
Don’t know if the Timeform Jury (or whatever it’s called now) has gone for Captain McGinley, but they don’t seem (at least directly) that keen on what I’ve read on Race Passes and only “3” of their Timeform 1-2-3. Although not top rated is rated with a “+” and recieved some good comments for his future career after reappearance last season – which remains his best effort. Disappointed afterwards and recieved some negative Timeform comments. However, the things I and no doubt many others have cottoned on to are:
Rebecca’s form. Already almost had as many winners this season as the whole of last, she really lost her form last term, probably having a bad virus and therefore:
It’s possible to disregard all Captain McGinley’s subsequent runs after that reappearance in 2015/16, looked a horse of potential at this sort of level and at that time appeared very likely to improve. ie 16 lengths second to the 1 to 2 fav Alcala, 11 back to the third on Oct 21st 2015 a reasonable first start over hurdles. Still needs to improve on that, but there are reasons to believe he can.
Yards who were in poor form last season often end up with well handicapped horses this term and not only that…
Although I rate six of todays rival trainers as in fair form 6 or 5 out of 10, there are four I rate as poor form 4/10 or worse and Curtis the only one in what I’d class as good form 8/10.
Fair bumper and last season showed Captain Mcginley runs well fresh.Do agree Kasparov, his price is far too short now. Nothing in his form to justify Evens.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.