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Snowy Morning is indeed a danger to the 11 st + brigade TAPK, think he’s well handicapped. Still a question about his jumping with me. Anyway if a 33/1 (albeit a value 33/1) shot is a danger, it’s not a significant one. Big Fella Thanks at the moment on 10-12 is perhaps the biggest danger. May well save on those two nearer the time.
Value Is EverythingChampion Hurdle
12 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair) Celestial HaloDisappointing in Ireland last time, but willing to forgive him that, normally consistent. Not heard of any physical problems since. Will have had a long break when lining up and goes well fresh. Cheltenham form makes it worth a bet at current price. Arguably went too fast early on last year (other front runners well beaten). May be better than that run suggests, Wincanton suggested so.
Solwhit is a worthy fav, (already backed him before this thread began. For the purposes of this thread might come back with a bet on him nearer the time.
Value Is EverythingForgot to put up Kilcrea Castle for the Racing Post Chase as well so…
Racing Post Chase
20 points @ 13/2 (WH, B365) Kilcrea CastleValue Is EverythingNeptunes Novices Hurdle
16 points @ 12/1 (WH) Peddlers Cross
Really liked the way this horse won at Haydock. Good jumper and attitude. Trainer in an interview on ATR has just said he’ll probably go for the Neptunes, unless it’s soft or heavy. I’d think he’s between a true 7/1 and 8/1 chance now (shorter nearer the time).
Value Is EverythingNeptunes Novices Hurdle
16 points @ 12/1 (WH) Peddlers Cross
Really liked the way this horse won at Haydock. Good jumper and attitude. Trainer in an interview on ATR has just said he’ll probably go for the Neptunes, unless it’s soft or heavy. I’d think he’s between a true 7/1 and 8/1 chance now (shorter nearer the time).
Hi Ginge, hope you are ok.
Great bet is that, i too was very impressed, it was a very taking performance at Haydock.
Forgot to put up Kilcrea Castle for the Racing Post Chase as well so…
Racing Post Chase
20 points @ 13/2 (WH, B365) Kilcrea CastleCouple of smaller bets:
15 points @ 6/1 (WH) Fistral Beach
10 points @ 9/1 (VC) Madison Du BerlaisValue Is EverythingAnte-post
William Hill Handicap Chase Cheltenham23 points @ 7/1 (WH) Bensalem
Big fan of this horse, seems to have been let in light considering his runs against Diamond harry. I thought Kingy’s was a good outside bet for the RSA. If he can get Bensalem’s jumping sorted out would be even more confident.
Value Is EverythingEider Chase
15 points each way @ 14/1 (T) Bold RansomWill probably back Gallant Nuit later, if Newcastle is on.
Big IF!
Value Is Everything3:35 Fontwell
38 points @ 9/4 (T) Qozak
17 points @ 8.8/1 (betfair) Golan Way
5 points @ 11/1 TrenchantValue Is Everything3:00 Fontwell
25 points @ 9/2 HerecomesthetruthWas against him at Ascot as thought he’d get taken on. Front running I believe is important to him. There are a couple rivals who sometimes lead, but no other confirmed front runner. So think the price is worth taking a chance on.
Heathcote stands a great chance on the 2nd to Fistral Beach and blinkers back on. But is inconsistant.
Moon is also inconsistant.
Or Bleu could come back to form in a small field.
Radetsky is not up to this.
Saphir is interesting, hopefully won’t take the Nicholls horse on up front. Could yet improve but too short in the market.Value Is EverythingRyanair Chase
11 points each way Schindler’s Hunt 16/1 (L)Showed at the weekend he’s back to his best. Every chance at the last before failing to stay 3 miles on soft ground. Third in this race last year behind Imperial Commander (goes for the Gold Cup), and Voy Por who’s shown none of his brilliance this term. Joncol may be better on softer, Poquelin yet to show he’s top class. Ditto Tranquil Sea and to a certain degree Barber’s Shop.
Schindler’s Hunt sometimes finds less than anticipated, which is why I’ve said each way. Another way might be to back win only and lay back two out.Now done a couple of others for this race.
11 points each way @ 16/1 J’Y Vole
9 points (win) @ 5/1 Tranquil SeaValue Is EverythingSupreme Novices Hurdle
I backed Dunguib (early prices at 7/1) last year. Been impressed (as we all have) with his form and way he powers through on the bridle this season. If doing the same at Cheltenham will be very difficult, if not impossible to beat. However, he is not a fluent jumper yet, and a big field can extenuate jumping problems. Hasn’t ever really looked like falling, but there’s a big chance of one or two bad mistakes here, particularly with (still) an inexperienced jockey on board. Having said all that, 4/5 might be worth taking on the day if still available.
With a short priced favourite it often makes for a good each way race.Get Me Out Of Here’s form (imo) has been under-estimated. I was at Newbury for the Totesport Trophy. Where I stood, the turn of foot he showed was electrifying. Did suffer an over-reach there, blood coming from a leg clearly visible in winners enclosure, probably from the mistake at the last. Won with quite a bit more in hand than distances suggest. Usually a very good jumper and has experience (over hurdles) in a large field. As long as he’s over the injury looks nailed on to be in the frame. Have been waiting for signs about the likely target / wellbeing. County and Neptunes came under consideration. Even talk of supplementing for the Champion. But another McManus Supreme possible with good form, Bellvano has recently gone for a walk in the market out to 40/1. Heard Nicky Henderson’s reportedly said the County is being considered for that horse. GMOOH himself is barely available at better than bookmakers top price, which also indicates a probable runner. Likely ride of AP McCoy which is always a bonus, particularly against inexperienced jockeys.
Menorah is interesting, Johnson went too fast, too soon at Ascot. Gave 10lbs to the winner Lush Life who came from a long way back. Even so, would’ve won but for another jockey error, taking it too easy coming in to the last (mistake) and unable to recover in time. On penultimate start won a novice hurdle at Kempton. Beat Bellvano 12 lengths getting 3lbs in a time faster than Go Native’s Christmas Hurdle.
Oscar Whisky, perhaps the other one with a significant chance. Winner of three races at odds-on this term for Nicky Henderson. Only asked to do just enough last time at Kempton. Yet to take on anything like the quality of Dunguib, Get Me Out Of Here or Menorah, but that’s not to say he can’t.
11 points each way @ 10/1 (WH)
Get Me Out Of Here
Value Is Everything46 points @ 15/8 (FD)Trabolgan
10 points @ 6/1 (C) Briery Fox
7 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Elerslie George23 points @ 13/2 (WH) Battlecry
13 points @ 11/1 (SJ) Big Fella Thanks30 points @ 7/2 (T) Flemish Invader
8 points @ 4/1 (SJ) BormoValue Is Everything
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