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Grand National
Already Advised
5 points @ 44/1 Hello Bud
6 @ 33/1 Niche Market
8 @ 25/1 Mon Mome
4 @ 50/1 Kilcrea Castle
78 @ 11/8 Winner to carry 11st or more
50 @ 7/4 Winner to carry more than 11 stoneNow
8 @ 12/1 Big Fella ThanksValue Is EverythingFoxhunter Chase
35 points @ 3/1 nrnb, bog (b365) Roulez Cool(Soldatino is nrnb too)
Value Is EverythingFound out I did in fact take the 20/1 Somersby, somehow forgot. Knew considered it. Alzheimers? Taking Crack Away Jack losses out (a bigger bet than Somersby), still would not win as much back at 20/1 as backing Somersby now at 6’s.
Been forced in to this by RUK’s preview which agree with 100%.
For the benefit of this thread:Arkle:
20 points @ 6/1 (WH) Somersby
8 points @ 9/1 (WH) Riverside TheatreValue Is EverythingChampion Hurdle
12 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair)Celestial Halo
Disappointing in Ireland last time, but willing to forgive him that, normally consistent. Not heard of any physical problems since. Will have had a long break when lining up and goes well fresh. Cheltenham form makes it worth a bet at current price. Arguably went too fast early on last year (other front runners well beaten). May be better than that run suggests, Wincanton suggested so.
Been looking at Khyber Kim and wondering why he is not amongst the favourites? So….
18 points @ 9/1 (WH bog, nrnb)
Khyber Kim
Value Is EverythingQueen Mother Champion Chase
17 points each way @ 6/1 (T, L, WH) Kalahari KingWent to Newbury Cheltenham Preview this evening where George Primarolo was offering an enhanced Evens for Master Minded so could not resist a saver. Wish I’d done Kalahari King just a win bet now. Still, think if anything does beat MM it will be KK.
34 points @ Evens (T) Master Minded
Hope that’s allowed?
Value Is EverythingChampion Hurdle
12 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair)Celestial Halo
Disappointing in Ireland last time, but willing to forgive him that, normally consistent. Not heard of any physical problems since. Will have had a long break when lining up and goes well fresh. Cheltenham form makes it worth a bet at current price. Arguably went too fast early on last year (other front runners well beaten). May be better than that run suggests, Wincanton suggested so.
Been looking at Khyber Kim and wondering why he is not amongst the favourites? So….
18 points @ 9/1 (WH bog, nrnb)
Khyber Kim
6 points @ 40/1 (b365 bog, nrnb) Donna’s Palm
Value Is EverythingSupreme Novices Hurdle
I backed Dunguib (early prices at 7/1) last year. Been impressed (as we all have) with his form and way he powers through on the bridle this season. If doing the same at Cheltenham will be very difficult, if not impossible to beat. However, he is not a fluent jumper yet, and a big field can extenuate jumping problems. Hasn’t ever really looked like falling, but there’s a big chance of one or two bad mistakes here, particularly with (still) an inexperienced jockey on board. Having said all that, 4/5 might be worth taking on the day if still available.
With a short priced favourite it often makes for a good each way race.Get Me Out Of Here’s form (imo) has been under-estimated. I was at Newbury for the Totesport Trophy. Where I stood, the turn of foot he showed was electrifying. Did suffer an over-reach there, blood coming from a leg clearly visible in winners enclosure, probably from the mistake at the last. Won with quite a bit more in hand than distances suggest. Usually a very good jumper and has experience (over hurdles) in a large field. As long as he’s over the injury looks nailed on to be in the frame. Have been waiting for signs about the likely target / wellbeing. County and Neptunes came under consideration. Even talk of supplementing for the Champion. But another McManus Supreme possible with good form, Bellvano has recently gone for a walk in the market out to 40/1. Heard Nicky Henderson’s reportedly said the County is being considered for that horse. GMOOH himself is barely available at better than bookmakers top price, which also indicates a probable runner. Likely ride of AP McCoy which is always a bonus, particularly against inexperienced jockeys.
Menorah is interesting, Johnson went too fast, too soon at Ascot. Gave 10lbs to the winner Lush Life who came from a long way back. Even so, would’ve won but for another jockey error, taking it too easy coming in to the last (mistake) and unable to recover in time. On penultimate start won a novice hurdle at Kempton. Beat Bellvano 12 lengths getting 3lbs in a time faster than Go Native’s Christmas Hurdle.
Oscar Whisky, perhaps the other one with a significant chance. Winner of three races at odds-on this term for Nicky Henderson. Only asked to do just enough last time at Kempton. Yet to take on anything like the quality of Dunguib, Get Me Out Of Here or Menorah, but that’s not to say he can’t.
11 points each way @ 10/1 (WH)
Get Me Out Of Here
9 points each way @ 10/1 (PP, bog, nrnb, money back (of win part) if Dunguib wins)
Menorah
Value Is EverythingAnother value ante-post bet.
World Hurdle
42 points @ 9/4
(sportingbet)
Big Buck’s
Biggest potential rival Punchestowns goes over fences and Kasbah Bliss unlikely to race over obstacles; Mighty Man isn’t getting any younger and injury prone. The latter comment also applicable to Irish Fivefourthree and Inglis Drever is sadly no longer with us. Top novice hurdlers Mikael d’Hagunet, Pandorama, Pride Of Dulcote, Bensalem, and Diamond Harry all go chasing this season. Zaynar (apparently) more likely to stay at two miles (expect a change there). Seems as though Big Buck’s hasn’t got much to beat this season in staying hurdles. Possible dangers are the Alan King and Emma Lavelle trained ex-novices Karabak and Bouggler. Both need to make vast improvement to beat a top form Big Buck’s. Nicholls horse never wins by far, idles badly at times. There is always a chance one or two novice chasers coming back to hurdles. But as long as that does not turn in to a temperament problem, will be very difficult to beat. Must have a much better than 31% chance of following up his 2009 win in the Stayers (World) Hurdle.
I like Time For Rupert. In the Cleeve was beaten 5 lengths but gave 4 lbs to the winner. So only a pound below Tidal Bay, is improving and more consistent than the Wylie nag. Won on goodish ground at Aintree last year. Considered the 20/1 but as I’ve got Big Bucks anyway, thought I’d try and get two winners in the same race!
17 points @ 9/1
(WH nrnb bog)
Time For Rupert
(betting without Big buck’s)
Value Is EverythingChampion Hurdle
, the full field and my 100% book.
The Contenders:Not convinced of
Go Native
‘s ability to get up the hill. Did win the Supreme last year. Going supremely well rounding the turn, looked home and hosed before having his lead cut back hand over fist. Had Medermit not been hampered at the last, could’ve been a different result. Won the Fighting Fifth, easily quickening clear after funereal gallop. Much better suited by the test of speed than (amongst others) Solwhit in third. Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle is always a speed test. Came there cruising once more, yet struggled to hold on from another speedster Starluck. Whether it is idling or stamina, can’t get away from the fact Go Native is a weak finisher in truly run races. Trainer hasn’t been pleased with watering despite the Newcastle run being on soft; this suggests more stamina worries. Everyone wishes connections well for their possible million pound bonus, but his current price seems to drastically over-estimate his chance. 14% 6/1
Starluck
won his Cheltenham prep on the all-weather at Kempton, proving well-being if nothing else. On the face of it is good value. Improved short-head second to Champion favourite Go Native in Christmas Hurdle (level weights), in front just after the line. Yet is a much bigger price. However, Kempton’s sharp track and test of speed suits him down to the ground. Looked like winning Timeform Radio Hurdle at Haydock, cruising clear before tied up badly as stamina began to take effect. Beaten by Mr Thriller on very soft ground. Also travelled extremely well until the hill, when third in last year’s Triumph. Won at Cheltenham on reappearance, but that was a comparatively slowly run race against inferior rivals, on good-firm ground (speed test). Everything we know about Starluck suggests he won’t get home unless it is a slowly run Champion (unlikely). 5% 20/1
Solwhit
is most consistent, again found plenty under pressure to win the Irish Champion last time. Winner of 5 of his last 6 races, all at Grade 1. Only one to escape him was the Fighting Fifth (3rd) which turned in to a sprint. Suited by a test of stamina at 2m. Beaten most of these at one time or another. Short head victor over an in form Punjabi on May Day. Looked to have a great chance (has the best form) until scoping badly on Monday. It’s going to be a hard job to get him over this and back to full fitness in just 8 days, but now seems more likely to take his chance. Had it not been for the scare I would make him favourite and by some way. Although ability to handle good ground is not proven. 9% 10/1
Binocular
has also been under a cloud with muscle problems being diagnosed. There must be a reason for disappointing runs this term; racing as if something is hurting. Not jumping with usual fluency on any start. Nowhere near best to win at Ascot latest run. Also below form third to Go Native in Christmas hurdle. Short priced third to Punjabi in last year’s Champion after preparation disrupted by snow. Interesting if back to best, but that seems quite a big IF. Announced as a non-runner but has reportedly made great progress since. Jumped well in work under AP earlier in the week and now a probable runner. Now the same price as he was before those problems.
Punjabi
has not shown his form this term either. Boylesports Hurdle run easily excused when fourth behind Khyber Kim, as never at his best fresh. Stable did not expect him to win at Haydock either. Alan King’s Medermit did get 4 lbs but won by a comfortable four lengths there. Afsoun, who is nowhere near as good as he used to be, only 2 lengths further back getting 8 lbs. Acts on any going. Found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways by the BHA at Kempton. Won in a canter but even so, did not need to be anywhere near best. Second, Border Castle coming back from a 21 month absence and third Supernoverre hopelessly outclassed and only beaten 19 lengths. However, it’s true to say Punjabi is at his very best in the spring, quite possible he’ll be back to full fitness to defend his crown. 11.5% 15/2
The one who split Binocular and Punjabi in last year’s Champion was
Celestial Halo
. Made most of the running there. Does need a sound pace at 2 miles, but all the other front runners were soundly beaten and probably went too fast, too soon. Winner and third came from further back. Can be marked up for that and put up possibly the best performance this season when giving 20 lbs and a 10 length beating to Totesport Trophy fourth and easy big Ascot handicap winner Mamlook. Celestial Halo went on to be beaten by Khyber Kim at Cheltenham in the Boylesports International. Lost by 2 ¼ lengths trying to give 4 lbs so still came out the best horse at the weights. However, ran very disappointingly in the Irish Champion, a long way below form in fourth. May be the ground was a little too testing, but it wasn’t that different to the Boylesports. Possibly not over his exertions there and has been inconsistent. Yet goes well fresh and will have had 7 weeks off when lining up this time. Is by Galileo, who’s progeny are often disadvantaged by very soft conditions. Trainer did say in a Cheltenham Preview “Celestial Halo has come in his coat and looks fabulous and hoping for better ground”. Whether that means he looks fabulous, but hasn’t shown it on the gallops is the question. Wears blinkers for the first time and reportedly worked brilliantly in them. Not many prominent runners to take him on this year and looks excellent value.
11.5% 15/2
Khyber Kim
is the surprise package this year. Saw his first ever start over hurdles for Nicky Henderson at Newbury, and so taken with it even backed him at three figures for the Champion that same year. Then came disappointments and ran no sort of race in the Supreme behind Captain Cee Bee. Looking either of poor temperament or something hurting, though did achieve a fourth to Pierrot Lunaire at Aintree.
Reappeared at Newbury and should have won Gerry Fielden Hurdle, rider lost a stirrup at the last hurdle. Again did not reproduce that form. Even had one start over fences and blinkered (too free) in the County Hurdle.
Ran encouragingly in the Swinton after little over a month off (from another Aintree run). Given too much to do when fifth. Six month break followed before the Greatwood at Cheltenham. By now it seemed being fresh was important. Won well, coming through from the back under 11 stones 9 lbs. Only just over a month later he won the Boylesports, again at Cheltenham from Celestial Halo and Medermit. Admittedly getting 4 lbs from the former, doing nothing wrong again in the finish. So the best fresh argument is a little dented. Can say he’s at least equally effective fresh, this is going to be his first start since December 12th. All three wins on soft, though unlucky second on good-soft and fourth at Aintree on good. Good second at Newmarket on the flat on good-firm. Khyber Kim’s three wins are before January, but local tracks just as likely to be significant. Newbury being close to Nicky Henderson’s Lambourn base and Cheltenham close to Twister’s yard at Naunton Gloucestershire. May be I am looking too closely, he’s improving and seemingly now of equable temperament. 9/1 looks well worth chancing. 14%6/1
Medermit
was a little unlucky in the Supreme last year. Outpaced before staying on, just failing to get up. With winner Go Native stopping, had it not been for being slightly hampered at the last may have just got there. Both have improved since. Encouraging third to Khyber Kim in the Greatwood when stable in poor form. Comes out same as the winner at the weights. Then third to the same horse in the Boylesports. 5 ¼ lengths behind at level weights. 3 lengths behind Celestial Halo (who gave 4 lbs), but 8 in front of an unfit Punjabi. Would’ve done a little better too, but for a mistake 2 out. Showed a surprising amount of pace there and at Haydock (both on soft). May struggle though, back on a sounder surface. Again getting 4 lbs from a below form Punjabi 4 lengths behind, yet won with quite a bit in hand. Problem is Afsoun keeps the form down in third, unless you believe that horse was far better there than any other run this season. Medermit must be respected, is improving and Alan King’s stable is in much better form now. However, it’s difficult to see why he should be shorter than Khyber Kim in the betting. 10% 9/1
It’s difficult to know what to make of
Zaynar
‘s form. Lost unbeaten run, long way below form when length second at 1/14 at Kelso, trying to give 8lbs to Quweto. In trouble some way out and often goes through a flat spot in his races. Did so on penultimate start, not needing to be at his best to beat Cape Tribulation in Relkeel. Seemed to improve when beating Karabak on reappearance, giving him 2 lbs and a 6 length beating. However, Karabak’s stable was in poor form at the time and of those taking Zaynar on, only weak finisher Red Moloney in third probably ran to form. Ridden by Andrew Tinkler there who again takes the ride. Zaynar has not run at 2 miles since winning the Triumph in cheek pieces last year. Remember him working poorly at Kempton prior to that success. Headgear reapplied needs to have the same effect this time around, which is a distinct possibility. Weak in the betting of late which is a little disconcerting, though it may be something with his unfashionable jockey booking. 10.5% 17/2
The Outsiders:
The second string of the Meade stable. Just might stop them getting their Million Pound bonus. Can not understand why
Donnas Palm
is as big a price. 4 ½ lengths second, splitting Solwhit and Sublimity in the Irish Champion. Five year old who should still be improving. Has given 9 lbs and a 3 length beating to Triumph third and Coral Cup favourite Mourad. Possibly best with some give in the ground, but odds-on winner at the Punchestown Festival. Consistent, not out of the first two this season. With doubts about a lot of the favourites, 40/1 is too big to ignore. 4.75%
20/1
Won In the Dark
won two poor Irish conditions races. The form nowhere near good enough to even be placed. Beaten over 20 lengths by Donnas Palm in the Irish Champion. Did finish 4th in the Fighting Fifth to Go Native; but the sprint for home means form is very suspect. 0.25% 400/1
Jumbo Rio
is an admirable racehorse, one of the best juvenile hurdlers in Ireland last year, but does not seemed to have improved much since. Good third in the December Hurdle this term, 4 ½ lengths behind Solwhit getting 3lbs weight for age, possibly flattered. 0.75% 132/1
Ebadiyan
out-battled Muirhead giving him 5 lbs in the Limestone Lad Hurdle, making all. Runner up not at his best. That was at 2m 3f and is bred to stay. Long way below form last time out. Ran out when in front two out in last year’s Triumph. Difficult to see him figuring for his extrovert trainer. 0.125% 800/1
Muirhead
was over 5 lengths fifth to Punjabi in last year’s Champion and 2 ½ lengths second to Solwhit in November. However, since then he’s done his best to rekindle the worst attributes of the stable’s Harchibald. Not won since 2007. 0.2% 500/1
Raise Your Heart
has not run over jumps since 10/1 last in the Greatwood Hurdle in November. Towards rear in three flat races in Meydan Dubai including last time only on March 4th over 10 furlongs. Did win a listed race in Turkey at that trip. Nothing done over hurdles suggests he’s up to this. 0.05% 2000/1
Celestial Halo @ 11/1, Khyber Kim @ 9/1 and Donnas Palm @ 40/1 are the value bets in my 100% book.
Value Is EverythingBeen looking at the Gold Cup:
This is an outstanding each way race.
Where the favourite Kauto Star is an odds-on shot (ideal for each way betting). What if Kauto Star did not run to form for some reason?
Second favourite unseated last time, seemingly scaring himself in the process. Would not be at all surprised if Denman was not placed at all.
Third favourite Imperial Commander is a doubtful stayer.
Fourth fav Cooldine may well improve, but has yet to put up a performance much better than the rest of the field.
Would not put anyone off backing Tricky Trickster if you still think he’s value. Is 16/1 enough though? Still unexposed, but will have to improve a good deal from Newbury to even reach the frame. Quite possible, but what price would Niche Market be in this?
The rest of the field are 66/1 and more.
I like 8 runners for each way betting, but take out the rank , no hopers Cerium and Mr Pointment. Mon Mome has next to no chance at this trip on goodish ground, does not have enough speed. Casey Jones and Calgary Bay might run in the William Hill instead. So how many are you left with?
My Will ran well last year, but doubtful he’ll be primed until April’s target.Carruthers arguably ran better than his position of second suggests last time. Got embroiled in a pace dual with both Madison Du Berlais and Joe Lively. Time before put up the best performance of his career when beating subsequent easy handicap winner Big Fella Thanks. So still unexposed. It is possible, if not probable he’s best on softer going, but that could be that he’s better with a test of stamina. Should get the stamina test here. Did finish second in a bumper on a firm surface. At 66/1 each way nrnb, bog, I believe he’s worth chancing the ground.
Might be worth taking 100/1 nrnb, bog, Calgary Bay too. I think he’s a bit like Khyber Kim in that he’s been a bit temperamental. But did nothing wrong over 3 miles on good-firm last time. Winning a class 2 handicap under 11 st 10 lbs. Stamina yet to be proven, but is bred to stay. From the family of Grey Abbey. Has been inconsistent in the past, but record on goodish going is pretty decent. There won’t be many better looking animals in the parade ring either. Might he yet fulfil his tall reputation? With money back if he does go to the William Hill ,100/1 looks too good to miss.
Both prices at William Hill. Realise you could get a bit better on the exchanges, but feel non-runner no bet is important.
2 points each way @ 66/1 (nrnb bog)(WH) Carruthers
2 ponts each way @ 100/1 (nrnb bog)(WH) Calgary BayValue Is EverythingArkle:
20 points @ 6/1 (WH) Somersby
8 points @ 9/1 (WH) Riverside TheatreThink they’ve under-estimated a few outsiders here:
2 points @ 27/1 Kangaroo Court
1 point @ 35/1 Mad Max
2 points @ 100/1 (PP) I’m DelilahValue Is EverythingCan’t see those coming anywhere TBH Ginger……do think Calgary Bay stands a chance TBP in the GC, though.
In a way I agree with you Rich. I rate them as the 6th, 7th and 8th best chance. Just feel they are all over-priced.
Working out my 100% book, all outsiders coupled from Kangaroo Court down add up to the third best chance of winning.
Now:
Been forced in to this earlier than I wanted by Dave Nevison tipping it up on RUK.Jewson Handicap Chase
9 points each way @ 11/1 (b365 bog, nrnb) Hey Big SpenderBrilliant jumper, corageous, improving. Can see one or two improving past him, hence the ew; but he’ll give his all and loves Cheltenham.
Value Is EverythingAnte-post
William Hill Handicap Chase Cheltenham23 points @ 7/1 (WH) Bensalem
Big fan of this horse, seems to have been let in light considering his runs against Diamond harry. I thought Kingy’s was a good outside bet for the RSA. If he can get Bensalem’s jumping sorted out would be even more confident.
Another few bets in this race:
11 points @ 19/1 Exmoor Ranger
8 points @ 20/1 Niche Market
1 point @ 59/1 Knowhere
(all 3 on betfair)Value Is EverythingToday’s bets (on this thread)including Ante-Post:
Supreme:
11 ew @ 10/1 Get Me Out Of Here
9 ew @ 10/1 Menorah (Paddy Power Dunguib offer)Arkle:
17 @ 8/1 Crack Away Jack
20 @ 6/1 Somersby
8 @ 9/1 Riverside Theatre
2 @ 100/1 I’m Delilah
2 @ 27/1 Kangaroo Court
1 @ 35/1 Mad MaxWilliam Hill:
23 @ 7/1 Bensalem
11 @ 19/1 Exmoor Ranger
8 @ 20/1 Niche market
1 @ 59/1 KnowhereChampion Hurdle:
12 @ 17.5/1 Celestial Halo
18 @ 9/1 Khyber Kim
(Also backed Donnas Palm NRNB)Value Is Everything
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