- This topic has 446 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 7 years ago by
.
- Posts
2:30 Cheltenham
71 points @ 2/1 (B365) Count Meribel (min 15/8)saver:
13 points @ 11/2 (B365) Global Stage (min 11/2)Value Is EverythingStakes/Deficit: Monday -72, Friday -138 (without a win) Mysteree a non-runner.
Todays Stakes 331
Return 702
Days Profit +371 pointsThread Totals:
Stakes: 5255
Return: 6576.4
Profit: +1321.4 points
Profit on stakes: 25.15%
Strike Rate: 63.27% (incl. 13 savers) 31 wins from 49 races
Strike Rate: 36.73% (not incl. savers) 18 wins from 49 races
(4 Ante-Post races still to run: 252 points)Today didn’t feel much like a winning day – Starchitect’s fatality with what looked the race at his mercy taking all the gloss off and then some. That hoorse has found less than sometimes seems up the run-in, but Guitar Pete in all probability a fortunate winner.
Thought I had the winner of the 3:05 coming to the last. Count Meribel going best and in front with what looked a doubtful stayer following. However, the one moving up a mile stayed on better than the one moving up a furlong.
International Hurdle lifted the mood. Smashing finish, The New One didn’t go off as fast as I expected and Sam Twister will be regretting not pressing on. Considering the weight concession ran as well as ever, although remains a possibility 3 miles might see his best chance of Festival glory. My Tent Or Yours settled better than often the case – may be he’s learing in his old age? Always had plenty of pace, able to track the pace and won out on the sprint for home. In truth MTOY had the form to win it fairly easily, so not at his very best to win, but found more in a finish than sometimes. First win for some time. Chtibello came with a promising run but couldn’t recover after hampered on the rail. Wouldn’t have beaten the winner though. Melon another to meet trouble, in his case no room rounding the turn. As my bets indicate had more to do than betting indicated and ran his best race yet despite things not going his way. Jumping wasn’t foot perfect but making ground at many obsticles to such an extent David Mullins needed to frequently take a pull and then interference on the turn for home. Melon still travelled best but it was no surprise didn’t find as much off the bridle after taking a bit of a hold for most of the race. Hasn’t had much racing and with more experience, a bigger field, faster pace and the fact he had to give weight to all bar TNO… this was a good trial. I have 5/1 Buveur D’Air but anyone without that bet might consider 20/1 each way Melon. Deserves to be third favourite.
Just to touch on the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup: Commiserations to Starchitect’s connections, but what a great ride by claimer Ryan Day. Had to push Guitar Pete along several times and kept in the race by a superb round of jumping. Won with a little in hand, pricking his ears and will stay further. Clan Des Obeaux was a bit sticky out the back and didn’t travel; yet came through to have every chance at the last. Le Prezien finished tired, jumping again left a lot to be desired – bad one three out the worst. Will not be a main bet in future. Kings Odyssey ran his race, but can’t see that he’s handicapped to win. Again, such a shame Starchitect’s, David Pipe hasn’t had much to smile about and visibly shaken today. Here’s wishing the Nicholshane trainer has a better second half of the season.
The day could easily have gone differently.
Value Is Everything2:35 Southwell
35 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Kaddys Dream (min 11/1)55 points @ 11/2 (B365) Midnight Silver (min 9/2)
Value Is Everything2:35 Southwell
35 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Kaddys Dream (min 11/1)Ei ei Ginge, had a small bet on this myself. Bit of an ‘account closer’ since it’s blue across the board and Sky must be asleep at the wheel but I ran the risk too.
Don’t usually like Robin Dickin horses off a break and would prefer to see the tonguetie on…but the Dickdog is going so well right now – even Dontminddboys managed to win the other day!
Kaddys Dream was a BIG eyecatcher on all career starts and the most recent run reads well. Could well be tailed but well worth chancing – glad you’re on for the ride too.
2:35 Southwell
35 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Kaddys Dream (min 11/1)Ei ei Ginge, had a small bet on this myself. Bit of an ‘account closer’ since it’s blue across the board and Sky must be asleep at the wheel but I ran the risk too.
Don’t usually like Robin Dickin horses off a break and would prefer to see the tonguetie on…but the Dickdog is going so well right now – even Dontminddboys managed to win the other day!
Kaddys Dream was a BIG eyecatcher on all career starts and the most recent run reads well. Could well be tailed but well worth chancing – glad you’re on for the ride too.
tbh I myself could only get half my stake on. Skybet limit every main bet, only allowed to win the same amount every time.
Exactly LS, I do find when a trainer is in such good form their first time out horses are more likely to be fit. Trainer form the main reason for backing her and could have more improvement this season. Jamie Snowden is also in good form, better than when Midnight Silver made her reappearance and could come on a lot tomorrow. Can’t see an alternative front runner so likely to get the lead and will be suited if the expected rain comes… Alex Hales – the other trainer in form and Stepover herself is probably the form horse. Might have a saver, but am concerned with the going if significant rain. Oscar Rose is the improver, will she turn up after unseating at Cheltenham today? Fergal O’Brien had a good start to the season, but that seems to have come to an end of late.
Value Is EverythingOscar Rose taken out now. Got to go in again at 18s in the new book I suppose.
Not for me, LS. Suspect some got on Kaddy’s Dream last night because of the Timeform free write up on betfair – saying “Kaddy’s Dream is worth monitoring in the betting on her belated return”. Only takes a few to try and get on before the “market move” and it in itself creates that market move. imo 16/1 at that time was worth a bet anyway because of the trainer form and if fit has a much better chance than 16/1. However, the fact Kaddy’s Dream has now gone the other way means there’s a far greater chance Kaddy’s Dream will need the race badly. ie Connections would be stupid to allow Kaddy’s Dream to go off 18/1 or even 12/1 if they know he’s fit and well. So if he stays at that price I won’t be investing more. Strangely enough, if shortening again I’d more inclined to take more 12/1 than this 18/1.
Ground now officially “soft” and may well actually be even softer than that. Race 1 seemed truly run and finished well spaced out yet 42 seconds slower than standard, second race 31 seconds. So Midnight Silver’s effectiveness on very soft graound and stamina should be even shorter than current 3/1. Where as it may not suit the favourite Stepover.
EDIT: Just seen Stepover now a non-runner and Midnight Silver now 15/8.
Value Is Everything2:35 Southwell
35 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Kaddys Dream (min 11/1)55 points @ 11/2 (B365) Midnight Silver (min 9/2)
Another:
16 points @ 15/8 (Sky) Midnight Silver (min 7/4)Value Is EverythingIndeed, market vibes couldn’t be much worse! Looks a bit of a stoomer*.
Hopefully shapes nicely for next time.
*opposite of a steamer – drifts and falls out the back of the TV!
Well done GT, old Snowdonia certainly going better now as you said.
Just a flicker from Kaddys halfway down the back.
Well done GT, old Snowdonia certainly going better now as you said.
Just a flicker from Kaddys halfway down the back.
Thanks LS. Yes, KD made ground quite nicely in the back straight, but went from going well to struggling in the blink of an eye. Been off 594 days so no doubt had a problem, obviously a physical reason which sadly suspect has not ben fully cured. Not one to be interested in again until showing much more.
As expected, MS got the lead and made stamina tell. Although Kalaniti travelled well for a long way and Iconic Sky made a swift move around the turn, always thought MS would stay on best. tbh After the two non-runners this was a poor Class 3; winner is a genuine type and hope the handicapper doesn’t cripple him.
Value Is EverythingTodays Stakes 106
Return 252.25 (incl. 50p R4 on first bet)
Days Profit +146.25 pointsThread Totals:
Stakes: 5361
Return: 6828.65
Profit: +1467.65 points
Profit on stakes: 27.38%
Strike Rate: 64.00% (incl. 13 savers) 32 wins from 50 races
Strike Rate: 38.00% (not incl. savers) 19 wins from 50 races
(4 Ante-Post races still to run: 252 points)Value Is Everything2:40 Ffos Las
51 points @ 5/1 (B365) Solstace Star (min 9/2)saver:
8 points @ 13/2 (Sky) Potters Story (min 13/2)Value Is Everything2:40 Ffos Las
51 points @ 5/1 (B365) Solstace Star (min 9/2)saver:
8 points @ 13/2 (Sky) Potters Story (min 13/2)Rayvin Black is a grand front running hurdler, gave 4 lbs and only beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D’Air (doing it easily) in February; but that obviously flatters him. Take that race out and he’s not as far in front of the others than betting suggests. Good 2 lengths 2nd to Stamp Your Feet (who received 7 lbs) last time off this mark – about as good as he is. This race jam packed of front/prominent runners. Can he lead here? If so will he need to go too fast to keep it?… And if not will he run to form? With a horse that front runs as often as he does it is probably important not to see other runners; so can understand the first time visor. Even so – at current prices of around 7/4 – not for me.
Mr Fitzroy looks just as one dimentional – from the front. Again ran poorly held up last time out in France. Never won off a mark as high as 120 although does act well on very soft. If there was a race he could dominate might be one to take a chance on at a big price; but that seems unlikely.
Tornado In Milan is second favourite, but he’s normally a prominent racer too. Needs to come on for his reappearance and almost 12 years old. Is he still capable of the form that saw him win twice last season off marks of 126 and 134? Now 136 and has an inexperienced claimer on board. Won for a claimer before, but there wasn’t as much pressure on the pace as this race is likely to be. How will she cope with possible pace burn out? 4/1 far too short imo.
Capitoul comes from a stable in form. Not much promise in beaten 20 lengths last time. But that came 6 days after a promising run before falling penultimate start – coming down when leading. Fallen twice in four starts since winning on debut for this stable. Will a first time hood make a difference?
Potters Story is in a smaller field than in two races at Cheltenham two starts this season. Won a small field novice here last season. Didn’t see much of it (fog) but tracked the pace out wide there. Should be enough room in this field to go around the outer and not give too much ground away. James Bowen is the best conditional jockey I’ve seen for a while, well worth his 5 lb claim and father Peter has seems to have hit form in the last week. Warrents at least a saver @ around 13/2.
Main bet though is Martin Keighley’s Solstace Star. Didn’t appear to stay 3m last time, reverts to hurdles/2m and has often raced prominently himself. But I don’t anticipate any problems on that score. Seems a genuine sort, happy to race in any discipline under any tactics and the Champion jockey usually reacts well to whatever the pace set… Plus – if as expected this is a strongly run 2m race on heavy ground – a stamina test should play to his strengths. Hasn’t won off this mark (135) but nor is it anything but well deserved. Good 2 1/4 lengths 2nd off 132 penultimate hurdles effort in a more competitive 13 runner field at Uttoxeter, 5 lengths clear of the rest. Trainer had a winner today and is in good form. 5/1 too big to ignore.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.