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1:55 Kempton:
44 points @ 7/1 (FD) Fountains Windfall (min 6/1)69 points @ 5/2 (B365) Mia’s Storm (min 9/4)
saver:
28 points @ 4/1 (C) Ballyoptic (min 7/2)Fountains Windfall 7/1 a good bet. Jumped pretty well on debut but not so good at Newbury. So did pretty well to be still bang there with a chance when falling two out. Takes on the first and second again, Elegant Escape and Black Corton. Elegant Escape pressed Fountains Windfall for the lead and Ballyoptic another who likes to be up there. I’m still hoping Coleman takes at least a share of the lead this time. Black Corton is weighted to take revenge on Elegant Escape but to my line of thinking the Nicholls horse doesn’t have the scope for further improvement of his old rivals. However, tbh this doesn’t look a great Kauto Star, the two at the head of the market most likely to go on to more Grade 1 success. Ballyoptic will be suited by significant rain – more of a test of stamina the better for him. Good staying hurdler who should eventualy make an equally good chaser. Two reasons I haven’t made him a main bet are his jumping and form of the yard; although not bad it’s not as good as it was when Ballyoptic was last seen. The mare Mia’s Storm already has an easy victory over Elegant Escape, although both have probably improved since. 13 lengths winner of what looked on paper a competitive Listed mares race last time and gets the handy (too handy) 7 lbs allowance. May not want the ground too testing at this 3 miles, but other than that looks the one they all have to beat. Tizzard second string West Approach had Modus beaten last time out at Exeter, good form but hasn’t impressed me in the way he races, risky at fences. Some Invitation has scope for improvement, but needs to progress as if not will be outclassed here.
Have backed Fountains Windfall and Mia’s Storm with a saver on Ballyoptic, althogh might switch the latter pair around if getting significant rain.
Value Is EverythingKing George:
20 points each way @ 9/1 (Sky, NRNB) Whisper (min 8/1)25 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Fox Norton (min 7/1)
Value Is EverythingHave backed Fountains Windfall and Mia’s Storm with a saver on Ballyoptic, althogh might switch the latter pair around if getting significant rain.
Done.
Value Is EverythingHow do you switch them around after you have placed your bets? Do you lay back some of one or would you have added to ballyoptic stakes?
How do you switch them around after you have placed your bets? Do you lay back some of one or would you have added to ballyoptic stakes?
Both. But I was called for dinner and didn’t have time to put the bet up. Anyway, neither was successful so no difference.
Lot of the time the money back from the lay of the old “main” bet that becomes a new saver… is wagered on the old “saver” bet that becomes a new main bet… plus a little extra.
Today could’ve been so much better if Heskin had kept the Channon horse closer to the pace in the novice handicap and the Honeyball horse stood up in the Kauto.
Value Is EverythingStayers Hurdle:
25 points @ 25/1 (FD) Lil Rockerfeller (min 16/1)
41 points @ 13/2 (Sportsbook) Unowhatimeanharry (min 6/1)
saver:
11 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Nichols Canyon (min 6/1)60 points @ 6/1 (B365) Sam Spinner (min 5/1)
Value Is EverythingWelsh Grand National:
39 points @ 16/1 (VC) Bishops Road (min 11/1)
33 points @ 14/1 (VC) Vintage Clouds (min 11/1)
38 points @ 12/1 (VC) Wild West Wind (min 17/2)
savers:
11 points @ 13.5/1 (betfair) Rock The Kasbah (min 11/1)
12 points @ 11.5/1 (betfair) Beware The Bear (min 11/1)
14 points @ 10/1 (B365) Folsom Blue (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingChepstow off.
1:20 Kempton:
80 points @ 7/4 (B365) Shantou Flyer (min 13/8)
23 points @ 7/2 (B365) Cyrname (min 7/2)Value Is Everything2:30 Kempton:
30 points @ 9/1 (B365) Forest Bihan (min 8/1)53 points @ 4/7 (SJ) Politologue (min 8/15)
Value Is EverythingTwo saver bets won today.
3:00 Leopardstown:
83 points @ 11/8 (Sky) Sizing John (min 11/8)
34 points @ 13.5/1 (betfair) Road To Respect (min 10/1)
saver:
13 points @ 9/1 (WH) Djakadam (min 17/2)Value Is Everything1:20 Leopardstown:
64 points @ 2.6/1 (betfair) Nichols Canyon (min 85/40)
66 points @ 0.98/1 (betfair) Apples Jade (min 10/11)Value Is Everythingwell done ginge, but why oh why do you give so much back, you gave this horse a great write up and end up backing him around 7/2.
I know you like your savers but sometimes be brave.Well done again mate
well done ginge, but why oh why do you give so much back, you gave this horse a great write up and end up backing him around 7/2.
I know you like your savers but sometimes be brave.Well done again mate
Yes, can understand that nwalton. You’re right I have gone a bit too far in recent races.
tbh May be I should’ve left Sizing John alone (especially as a win bet ) and just done Road To Respect each way (with the place part as the saver) possibly with another saver on Djakadam… As I did mention in the John Durkan thread the Lexus might “come too soon” after a hard race on very soft conditions. Forgot all about that until after the race. Not altogether convinced of this “clinically abnormal” thing about Sizing John; with the hard race last time out and a possible virus in the yard (Jessie being on a long losing run with Sizing John her last winner) they’re good enough reasons for a poor run.However I digress – back to my savers: Prefer doing quite a few because they keep my confidence up and that in turn keeps me betting in the same profitable way. Without them would’ve gone 7 races without a win before Road To Respect. 363 points profit from the race is still imo a good amount.
Value Is EverythingCheers nwalton, I’ll do my best.
3:00 Newbury:
49 points @ 9/2 (Sky) Way Back Then (min 9/2)
51 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Dame Rose (min 3.3/1)Value Is Everything
tbh May be I should’ve left Sizing John alone (especially as a win bet 
) and just done Road To Respect each way (with the place part as the saver) possibly with another saver on Djakadam… As I did mention in the John Durkan thread the Lexus might “come too soon” after a hard race on very soft conditions. Forgot all about that until after the race. Not altogether convinced of this “clinically abnormal” thing about Sizing John; with the hard race last time out and a possible virus in the yard (Jessie being on a long losing run with Sizing John her last winner) they’re good enough reasons for a poor run.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.