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Sorry, I was studying too late last night – too tired and had too many bets in too many races. Too tired to study tonight too.
This message was brought to you by the word “too”.
Value Is Everything2019 Champion Hurdle:
86 points @ 7/2 (B365) Buveur D’Air (min 11/4)Value Is Everything2019 Stayers Hurdle:
47 points @ 16/1 (WH) Sam Spinner (min 9/1)Value Is EverythingOther than Samcro I don’t see any of the male novices having enough speed for the Champion Hurdle. Most of the good ones (including the Supreme one/two Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov) are apparently going chasing anyway. Apples Shakira possibly, but provided she settles will stay further. Five year olds don’t have a good record either and in the same stable/ownership as the favourite – has the Mares Hurdle as an alternative… Laurina – impressive in the Mares Novice. Team tactics meant victorious by a longer distancer than would’ve been the case, but she’s still very very good. Trouble is I suspect she’ll only end up in this if Mullins doesn’t have anyone else – that said doesn’t have much at present.
This year’s Champion a two horse race. Melon the improver that only lost by a head after being in front on the run-in. On the face of it looks value at 8/1, over double the horse that beat him. But with size to make a chaser and currently around the same price for the Arkle – if Melon goes chasing Mullins doesn’t have much for the Champion. Laurina could try to emulate the stable’s Annie Power (mare switched here when defending Champion Faugheen got injured). Faugheen is too old now, regressing and likely to have one last run stepped up in trip. Melon disappointed from time to time too, can pull too hard in more slowly run affairs/”trials”. So if backing this year’s second to go one better I’d rather wait until beaten and (in all probability) price lengthens.
Samcro has undoubted great potential, but with his 2019 destination unsure (priced up for five races) difficult to know whether any odds give “value”. However, sometimes it’s too good to be true and just tells you what is not going to be targeted. 10/1 Champion Hurdle might seem great value, but with the owner’s love of chasing is very unlikely to remain hurdling – so 10/1 is all about liklihood of running. Be a third of that price if an intended runner. Gambling on him jumping poorly over fences (either on course next year or at home) isn’t for me, especially as jumps hurdles fluently and therefore probable to do the same over larger obsticles.
More likely to get a run for your money with Buveur D’Air. Henderson’s horse likely to remain difficult to beat throughout this and next season. Seems a sound racehorse and should go in to next year’s race in form. Finally, has previously shown even better ability than Tuesday’s win. Turn of foot more effective given conventional Cheltenham going. If I were a bookmaker’s odds compiler would be putting Buveur D’Air in @ 2/1.
2019 Champion Hurdle:
86 points @ 7/2 (B365) Buveur D’Air (min 11/4)Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)
Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)
34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)20 points @ 50/1 (WH) Vintage Clouds (min 28/1)
Value Is Everything3:25 Aintree:
121 points @ 11/10 (betfair) Supasundae (min 10/11)
18 points @ 33/1 (L) Cyrus Darius (min 25/1)Value Is Everything2:50 Aintree
22 points each way @ 14/1 (B365) Clan Des Obeaux (min 11/1)Value Is Everything1:45 Aintree
34 points each way @ 13/2 (PP) Rene’s Girl (min 11/2)Value Is Everything4:05 Aintree
38 points each way @ 4.8/1 (betfair) Grand Vision (min 4/1)Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)
34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)
20 points @ 50/1 (WH) Vintage Clouds (min 28/1)34 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Total Recall (min 10/1)
Another:
8 points @ 11/1 (Sky) Anibale Fly (min 8/1)Those two should be a lot clearer of the field than they are.
Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)
34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)
20 points @ 50/1 (WH) Vintage Clouds (min 28/1)
34 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Total Recall (min 10/1)
8 points @ 11/1 (Sky) Anibale Fly (min 8/1)28 points @ 27/1 (betfair) I Just Know (min 18/1)
Value Is Everything2:20 Aintree:
59 points @ 5/1 (B365) Vision Des Flos (min 9/2)
25 points @ 10/1 (PP) Scarlet Dragon (min 17/2)
saver:
34 points @ 9/4 (PP) Global Citizen (min 2/1)Value Is Everything3:25 Aintree
38 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Politologue (min 13/2)
saver:
28 points @ 11/8 (B365) Min (min 11/8)Value Is Everything
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