Home › Forums › Betting Chat – Bets & Tips › Ginger's Jumpers
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Istabraq.
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- March 15, 2018 at 11:02 #1346674
Stayers Hurdle:
25 points @ 25/1 (FD) Lil Rockerfeller (min 16/1)
41 points @ 13/2 (Sportsbook) Unowhatimeanharry (min 6/1)
11 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Nichols Canyon (min 6/1) NR
60 points @ 6/1 (B365) Sam Spinner (min 5/1)I personally laid Unowhatimeanharry back when the owner’s Yanworth got entered at a fair loss. Suspected the former wasn’t going well at home and they thought age was catching up with him. But the Fry stable is in good form of late, confidence seems to be reappearing and with a lot of rain forcast between now and post time… Not many of these are going to stay a truly run 3m if heavy. All three, Sam Spinner, Unowhatimeanharry and Lil Rockerfeller (54/1 is enormous!) should stay well. I’ve gone in again for UNWINH @ 9/1, but won’t put that bet here because the 41 is still here. Also topped up on Lil.
Lil Rockerfeller is outstanding value here.
Another:
10 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Lil Rockerfeller (min 20/1)
…and if you aren’t on already – Sam Spinner should be an 11/4 shot, so 4/1 each way on the machine is great value imo.Value Is EverythingMarch 15, 2018 at 16:07 #1346769– 48 on the day.
Given the first couple of days can’t complain (well, yes I can).Shattered Love was a good start, but the other two betting races were poor. Although got it right by backing against the hard pulling odds-on fav in the Ryanair, didn’t back the winner. In the Stayers Sam Spinner needs a thorough test of stamina and thought the race was bound to be truly run (backed three strong stayers)… Ground came right and then… Joe Colliver made it in to the biggest speed test of the meeting. LOL What an idiot!.
Value Is EverythingMarch 15, 2018 at 18:51 #1346821That’s what I thought too – and Daryl Jacob! Colliver said the horse wasn’t concentrating and couldn’t have gone any faster. Not sure I buy this but then what about the other, more experienced Cheltenham jockeys on stayers? Why didn’t Noel Fehily or Trevor Whelan make a move? They all sat there like dummies, going a crawl whilst knowing they had a potential Royal Ascot horse and the Irish Champion Hurdle winner in the field. A complete farce.
As for the Ryanair. It’s One For Arthur part 2. Connections, right up to the off, were saying the ground was against BDF. CC was always going to run like that. In fact, the Ascot Chase was the race of the season and none of the principals have recovered from it including WP and TN. Plus Frodon is very best on Heavy and there was none, Soft and a bit tacky all round.
Roughly another 6mm forecast, mainly overnight so will have to make selections based on the going being exactly the same tomorrow (cue a deluge!) What do you reckon, Ginger?
March 15, 2018 at 19:32 #1346827Yes GM, I think the ground will be roughly the same or a bit softer. Hope so, as don’t want it to dry out for my bets tomorrow. Got out of Redicean earlier today just in time I reckon – gone out to 13/2 from 5/1 this morning due to the ground (from what I saw has a flowing action likely to be at best on good). Had a few small bets in the small hours last night on the Gold Cup thinking it was going to be very soft, doubt it’ll be any worse than soft with heavy places and have laid them back today at the same prices. Native River is my main bet in the Gold Cup anyway, so the softer the better.
Value Is EverythingMarch 15, 2018 at 19:43 #1346832Triumph Hurdle:
52 points @ 11/2 (sportsbook) Redicean (min 5/1)
LAY 52 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Redicean (min 11/2)
44 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Stormy Island (min 11/2)
22 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Sussex Ranger (min 18/1)
34 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Mr Adjudicator (min 15/2)
saver:
15 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Farclas (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 15, 2018 at 23:18 #1346897Gold Cup: (will include just this thread)
30 points @ 11/1 (betfair) Native River (min 12/1)
26 points @ 20/1 (888, 19/1 betfair) Whisper (min 15/1) NR
42 points @ 7.4/1 (betfair) Sizing John (min 6/1) NR
savers:
22 points @ 5/1 (boyle) Our Duke (min 5/1)
11 points @ 10/1 (B365) Killultagh Vic (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 15, 2018 at 23:53 #1346915Ryanair
38 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Cue Card (min 13/2)
34 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Frodon (min 9/1)
28 points @ 15/1 (betfair) Cloudy Dream (min 12/1)
saver:
5 points @ 24/1 (betfair) Sub Lieutenent (min 16/1)(probable 20% reduction factor if Douvan is a NR)
Hi Ginge, not a criticism but would you have not been better off laying UDS if you made him such poor value.?
I know you prefer backing to laying but what sort of percentage of value would you be looking for to lay one.?
Well done on your results btw…
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
March 16, 2018 at 02:52 #1346944You’re right Nathan, I’ll have to think about doing that when a similar chance arises.
Value Is EverythingMarch 16, 2018 at 03:18 #1346945County Hurdle
25 points @ 12/1 (B365) Flying Tiger (min 11/1)
25 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Samaoineamh Alainn (min 14/1)
21 points @ 14/1 (B365) Whiskey Sour (min 13/1)
18 points @ 24/1 (B365) Lagostovegas (min 20/1)
savers:
11 points @ 10/1 (B365) Bleu Et Rouge (min 10/1)
11 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Duca De Thaix (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 16, 2018 at 03:23 #1346946County Hurdle
25 points @ 12/1 (B365) Flying Tiger (min 11/1)
25 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Samaoineamh Alainn (min 14/1)
21 points @ 14/1 (B365) Whiskey Sour (min 13/1)
18 points @ 24/1 (B365) Lagostovegas (min 20/1)
savers:
11 points @ 10/1 (B365) Bleu Et Rouge (min 10/1)
11 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Duca De Thaix (min 10/1)
another saver:
7 points @ 16/1 (betfair) Sandsend (min 15/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 16, 2018 at 03:49 #1346947Foxhunter Chase
52 points @ 7/2 (Coral) Burning Ambition (min 100/30)
27 points @ 20/1 (B365) Grand Vision (min 14/1)
13 points @ 7/1 (WH) Wonderful Charm (min 7/1)
12 points @ 8/1 (B365) Foxrock (min 15/2)Value Is EverythingMarch 16, 2018 at 14:05 #1347046Albert Bartlett
60 points @ 8/1 Next Destination
38 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Chef Des Obeaux (min 11/2)
12 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Mr Wipped (min 25/1)
30 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Chriss Dream (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 16, 2018 at 15:20 #1347071Gold Cup: (will include just this thread)
30 points @ 11/1 (betfair) Native River (min 12/1)
26 points @ 20/1 (888, 19/1 betfair) Whisper (min 15/1) NR
42 points @ 7.4/1 (betfair) Sizing John (min 6/1) NR
savers:
22 points @ 5/1 (boyle) Our Duke (min 5/1)
11 points @ 10/1 (B365) Killultagh Vic (min 10/1)
12 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Definitly Red (min 9/1)
4 points @ 37/1 (betfair) American (min 33/1)
10 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Our Duke (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingMarch 16, 2018 at 15:24 #1347073Gold Cup: (will include just this thread)
30 points @ 11/1 (betfair) Native River (min 12/1)
26 points @ 20/1 (888, 19/1 betfair) Whisper (min 15/1) NR
42 points @ 7.4/1 (betfair) Sizing John (min 6/1) NR
savers:
22 points @ 5/1 (boyle) Our Duke (min 5/1)
11 points @ 10/1 (B365) Killultagh Vic (min 10/1)
12 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Definitly Red (min 9/1)
4 points @ 37/1 (betfair) American (min 33/1)
10 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Our Duke (min 9/2)
top up
10 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Native River (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingMarch 16, 2018 at 17:07 #1347102Had a small each way bet on my first Arkle ante-post bet North Hill Harvey for the Grand Annual @ 10/1, but price has quickly gone. If returning to 9/1 or more suggest an 18 points each way bet.
Value Is EverythingMarch 16, 2018 at 17:26 #1347108Great week GT
Just got 10.00/3.30 on NHH
March 16, 2018 at 17:30 #1347112Yes, I’ll include the above NHH bet at 9/1 now.
Also:
20 points @ 8/1 Top Gamble (min 8/1Value Is Everything - AuthorPosts
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