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Been doing a few DLAP threads for the big Flat meetings this year, which have generally done fairly well. Now time I got back to the old style jumping thread.
How I bet:
My threads look for value bets. “Value” as in available at a price I believe under-estimates its chance of winning. Any horse can be considered value, even an odds-on shot. I don’t put up many individual horses @ odds-on, although often do more than one selection in a race that can add up to in effect an odds-on bet.
Just because one selection is considered value does not mean it will be my only selection in a race. Can have two, three or four+ selections in big fields if believing them value. Although I may have one or two main bets on what I consider the best value, with one or two savers on those believed lesser value. Beauty of having more than one bet is am not put off backing outsiders. 20/1 individual winners are not unusual and twice on these pages put up tips in excess of 100/1. That said, sometimes I’ll ignore the lesser value horses altogether if one or two are believed absolutely outstanding value and/or each way terms for the main bet/s is/are very favourable.My stakes try to maximise profits. Taking account of how much chance I believe the horse has of winning, together with how much value I believe is in the bet.
Main bet stakes are based on this calculation:
My idea of the horse’s percentage chance of winning…
Minus the percentage of the odds available…
Times that figure by 7…
Plus my idea of the horse’s percentage chance of winning.So a horse that I believe is a 25% (fair 3/1) chance available @ 9/2 (18.2%):
25 – 18.2 = 6.8
6.8 X 7 = 47.6
47.6 + 25 = 72.6 rounded up to 73
Stake is 73 points @ 9/2
If not wanting to be so precise you could call it 75.Each way bets are 0.67 X what would be the win bet. In this case:
0.67 X 73 = 48.91 rounded up to 49
Stake is 49 points each way @ 9/2 (98 in all) instead of 73 to win.
Again, you could up it to 50 points each way if not wanting to be so precise.If choosing to follow my tips with my staking plan then please bet within your own means. Although I fully expect this thread to make an overall profit, any punter no matter how successful can go through a long losing run/s which can strike at any point.
Stakes per race usually add up to between 80 and 125 points. Sometimes below 80, occasionally more than 125 points; seldom beyond 150. Once a year around 200 in the Grand National. So if you’re used to staking around £80 to £125 in a race, with the odd £150 and £200 race, then I’d adise working stakes out to £1 a point.
If you’re used to working with £10 to £12 per race with the odd £15 or £20 race, then I’d advise working stakes out to 10 pence a point… and so on.Value Is EverythingI know you don’t believe in luck Ginger so instead I will wish you logical outcomes! Before I joined TRF I just tried to pick winners plus a scattering of lottery-ticket 100-1 shots with no notion of value. You and various other posters have helped me a lot…I still have weakness for some poor-value bets but at least now I know the mistakes I am making a bit better. Looking forward to reading this thread
I know you don’t believe in luck Ginger so instead I will wish you logical outcomes! Before I joined TRF I just tried to pick winners plus a scattering of lottery-ticket 100-1 shots with no notion of value. You and various other posters have helped me a lot…I still have weakness for some poor-value bets but at least now I know the mistakes I am making a bit better. Looking forward to reading this thread
Thanks GAG,
We all have a “weakness” from time to time.
Nicely put, “Logical outcomes” sounds good to me.
Value Is EverythingI’ve backed Lil Rockafella at a massive price for the Stayers Hurdle.
Hopefully Lil can start the season on a high. Judged by his placed effort in last season’s Stayers/World Hurdle is the one to beat here. Although that run is a bit of a standout performance at the moment, I see no reason why he’s flattered by that. Trainer in excellent form. With unfashionable trainer and jockey against a second favourite Nicholls horse and Twister third fav, it’s possible the Neil King horse will go out even further, but 7/4 is good enough for me.Petit Zig has some good efforts to his name, 1 1/2 lengths 2nd to Lami Surge at Sandown. But he’s inconsistent, sometimes looks temperamental, doesn’t win as one of his ability should and is up against one as genuine as they come.
Wholestone ran well enough on reappearance and may have fitness on his side, but has a lot to find to beat a top form Lil Rockafella, especially giving him 2 lbs. May well improve on the form that saw him 7 1/2 lengths 3rd in the Albert Bartlett, but has to find a lot to beat a top form favourite and at the moment isn’t far in front of the others either.
I want to be against both Petit Zig and Wholestone at these prices.
Fountain’s Windfall is interesting @ around 14/1. Novice who’s won his last three; including final run last season, all the way 8 lengths winner of the big Aintree 3m handicap from a mark of 137 on goodish ground. Has form on soft too and may well lead again, but could be taken on here.
Gayebury won a Perth Listed novice in April, but that looks more his level.
Missed Approach hasn’t run over hurdles since April 2016, 3 lengths 2nd in an Ayr handicap. Doesn’t have the scope for improvement that most here do and seems best racing from the front. Not sure to get it here.
One I like at a big price is Colin’s Sister. 9 lengths winner of a Grade 2 mares novice over 2m4f last February. Way she finishes suggests 3 miles should suit and 16/1 imo under estimates her chance.
2:40 Wetherby:
81 points @ 7/4 Lil Rockafella (min 13/8)
25 poits @ 16/1 Colin’s Sister (min 13/1)
saver:
8 points @ 14/1 Fountain’s Windfall (min 13/1)Value Is EverythingHi GT. It’s great to see you giving us the privilege of your selections once again. All the best for the forthcoming season
Hate to say this as he’s one of my favourite horses of recent years, but I want to be against Cue Card in the Charlie Hall. Not at his best first time out in this last year and even the previous year (when winning) nowhere near the form he produced to win the Betfair second time up. If winning any Grade 1 race this term I think it’ll be the latter race. Now 11 and probably takes a run to get him fit.
Coneygree should be spot on, got ready for an early season race in Ireland but did not take part. Although injury prone these days has a really good record fresh. Close third to Sizing John in Punchestown Gold Cup in April suggests he’s as good as ever. There are other front runners in the field though. Justifiably favourite, just a little too short to make him the main bet.
Bristol De Mai has a chance at his best, but possibly at his best from the front. Unlikely to get it with Coneygree, Village Vic and Double Shuffle in the field. I prefer stable companion Blaklion, who would’ve gone close in the Grand National had he not pulled too hard. Before that a good second off a mark of 152 in Haydock’s Grand National Trial, some 18 lengths clear of the third. Now 6 lbs better off with winner Vieux Lion Rouge for 3 1/4 lengths. That said, the Pipe horse has a particularly good record fresh. Twiston-Davis stable is in good form. Blaklion will need a test of stamina at this trip, but with should get it here.
Similar story with Definitely Red‘s stamina too. Improved performance when 14 lengths clear in Grimthorpe off 149, gives him a chance here. Pulled up when hampered in Grand National afterwards. Won first time up last year so should be fit enough.
Double Shuffle ran well enough at Chepstow on reappearance, but in truth doesn’t look up to this class and may be at his very best right-handed.
Shantou Flyer won a good Cheltenham handicap on first day of the year on first start for Rebecca Curtis. Now has first run for Richard Hobson. Asking a lot in this grade. 15 lengths to make up on Cue Card from Ascot Chase and only 2 lbs better off.
Village Vic is normally a bold jumping front runner and Cheltenham specialist. May not get his own way here and fall last time might not have done his confidence any good.
Vigilio was 18+ lengths behind Might Bite and Whisper before winning an Aintree handicap in May. Doesn’t look up to this class.
3:15 Wetherby:
36 points @ 10/1 Blaklion (min 8/1)
30 points @ 8/1 Definitely Red (min 15/2)
21 points @ 25/1 Vieux Lion Rouge (min 20/1)
saver:
40 points @ 9/4 Coneygree (min 2/1)Value Is EverythingBest of luck Mark!! You bash those bookies every year and this year will be no different. Will pop in at weekends to see what you’re on.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Thanks, Nathan, Mtoto, VTC and Joni.
Not a bad start:2:40 Wetherby:
81 points @ 7/4 Lil Rockafella (min 13/8) 3rd
25 points @ 16/1 Colin’s Sister (min 13/1) 1st Return 425
saver:
8 points @ 14/1 Fountain’s Windfall (min 13/1)3:15 Wetherby:
36 points @ 10/1 Blaklion (min 8/1) 2nd
30 points @ 8/1 Definitely Red (min 15/2) 3rd
21 points @ 25/1 Vieux Lion Rouge (min 20/1) 4th
saver:
40 points @ 9/4 Coneygree (min 2/1) PUStakes 241
Return 425
Profit +184 pointsValue Is Everything3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)Value Is Everything3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)38 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Vic De Touzaine (min 17/2)
Value Is Everything3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)38 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Vic De Touzaine (min 17/2)
20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Final Nudge (min 16/1)
Value Is Everything3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)38 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Vic De Touzaine (min 17/2)
20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Final Nudge (min 16/1)
Couple of savers:
9 points @ 12/1 (WH) Fletcher’s Flyer (min 12/1)
9 points @ 12/1 Hallan Harri (min 11/1)Value Is Everything3:00 Wincanton Elite Hurdle:
66 points @ 4/1 (B365) Charbel (min 7/2)
savers:
16 points @ 5/1 (B365) London Prize (min 9/2)
14 points @ 6/1 (FD) Flying Tiger (min 11/2)Value Is Everything3:00 Wincanton Elite Hurdle:
66 points @ 4/1 (B365) Charbel (min 7/2)
savers:
16 points @ 5/1 (B365) London Prize (min 9/2)
14 points @ 6/1 (FD) Flying Tiger (min 11/2)I like Lough Derg Spirit as a horse but looks very short here. Although has scope for furter improvement form of Musselborough win – beating Peter The Mayo Man 2 1/2 lengths in reciept of 3 lbs – won’t be good enough here. I rate Charbel, London Prize and Flying Tiger as all having better chances. Charbel is a horse I love, very genuine, well handicapped on chase form, has a good record fresh and at this time of year and trainer in brilliant form. Hasn’t run on very soft ground for a long time, but impressive when doing so. Hopefully won’t get in to a pace duel with LDS.
London Prize won a big hurdles handicap and runner-up in the Ces on the flat. Be surprising if he doesn’t improve again over obsticles. Just have a slight concern over both going and whether he has the pace for this. Good win to run ratio, unlike Zubayer. Nicholls horse doesn’t win very often for one of his ability; seconditus. Both he and Lough Derg Spirit imo far from certain to be as effective if the expected rain sweeps through.
Melodic Rendezvous needs very soft ground and might get it if the forecast is correct. May have his favourite course but age is against him. Surely on the downgrade? Only good run last term 2 1/4 lengths 2nd. Has a chance if that form can be believed; however, imo flattered after getting a soft lead on 2016 reappearance. That’s highly unlikely tomorrow with both Lough Derg Spirit and Charbel in the field.
Flying Tiger won a Fred Winter on goodish ground off a 7 lbs lower mark than here. Has soft ground form too, including a promising 5th in a Group 3 on the flat.
Coer De Lion‘s chance probably relies on picking up the pieces if others go off too fast, coming through exhausted horses in a stamina test. Might be one to play only in running if there’s a pace burn out.Value Is Everything3:35 Wincanton Badger Ales Trophy:
38 points @ 12/1 (FD) Yala Enki (min 17/2)38 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Vic De Touzaine (min 17/2)
20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Final Nudge (min 16/1)
Couple of savers:
9 points @ 12/1 (WH) Fletcher’s Flyer (min 12/1)
9 points @ 12/1 Hallan Harri (min 11/1)On first look this looks extremely open. But although there isn’t much between them all on recent form some have a much better and some a much worse chance purely because of scope for improvement. When half of the field could easily show improvement it’s long odds-on at least one actually will. That means the other half (of exposed looking individuals) are very much up against it. I’d be against the likes of Theatre Guide, Fox Appeal, Alfie Spinner, Fact Of The Matter, Monte Royale and Tempestatefloresco for that reason alone. Then there’s “trainer form”, a minus for Double Shuffle and Relentless Dreamer; a plus for Yala Enki, Fletcher’s Flyer, Vic De Tounzaine, Final Nudge, Alfie Spinner, and Hallan Harri. Temperament is also against Fox Appeal (doesn’t win and finds nowt) and Pilgrim’s Bay (puts it all in one run in 10). Going looks to have changed the race, original market favourites Present Man and Southfield Theatre still have a chance but not anywhere near the chance they did a couple of days ago. Horses not only need to act on the surface, it also changes stamina requirements. Under good or good-soft conditions around Wincanton it would favour those effective from 2m6f to 3m1f. Where as on soft or even heavy the likes of Yala Enki, Vic De Tounzaine, Final Nudge, Fletcher’s Flyer, Hellan Harri, Southfield Royale and Mr Mix come in to it. The last two named are the ones I’ve taken a chance by leaving out. Mr Mix could yet improve a lot, but sometimes doesn’t find a great deal under pressure and (so far) jumping hasn’t been great. Not ideal for a big field like this. Southfield Royale is a handicap certainty on splitting Tea For Two and Native River in the 2015 Kauto Star. Those two have improved since, but it’s still good form from Southfield Royale. Just been very disappointing last season and if he was thought back to his best connections wouldn’t allow him to be 18/1; Market is telling you something here. If fit and well would be half those odds. In a strange way, if he shortens up 12/1 might be better “value” than the current 18/1.
If Yala Enki can get to the front (there are other front runners) has a great chance. If surrounded by horses early I’ll think about getting out of the bet. Handicapper seems to let winners of good races at smaller tracks (Kelso) in better than he should. Ground looks to be coming right. Latter comment goes for stable companion Vic De Tounzaine too. Although he won’t be seen early, a fast pace will suit him. Venittia’s first winner of the season last time out, only just getting up but second has franked the form since. VDT can improve, stable in good form this week. Ditto Harry Fry. Fletcher’s Flyer is an odd one, tends to travel kindly in his races but stays really well. Reason why he’s not a main bet is imo sometimes doesn’t find much off the bridle. Reynoldstown 3rd was a good run on “form”, but looked winner turning in. That said, often such horses are best to catch fresh/first time out. Final Nudge won first time up last season and could be significantly higher in the handicap had he stood up four out in Midlands National. Rain has more than doubled his chance.
Hallan Harri wasn’t the best Bet365 winner you’ll see off 9-10, a mark of 126. Now only 4 lbs higher and now has the excellent James Bowen claiming 7 lbs off. Sandown was on much firmer, but has form on very soft and ground brings his stamina in to play. Would’ve been a main bet but am concerned his all the way success flatters him and probably won’t be as easy to make all here.Value Is Everything
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