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2:15 Musselburgh:
28 points @ 12/1 (B365) Man Look (min 10/1)36 points @ 6/1 (B365) Romulus Du Donjon (min 6/1)
Value Is EverythingLooking unlikely for spare badges this year for Newbury Ginge., will be able to come up with something once renewals are through for 2018
Looking unlikely for spare badges this year for Newbury Ginge., will be able to come up with something once renewals are through for 2018
Realise that, Softie; no hurry – be grateful for any day just to catch up.
How’s the building work going at Newbury?Value Is Everything1:40 Fakenham:
85 points @ 13/8 (Sky) Creep Dubois (min 6/4)33 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Enjoy Responsibility (min 8/1)
Value Is Everything1:30 Newbury
52 points @ 9/2 (B365) Abbreviate (min 4/1)28 points @ 17/2 (B365) Holbrook Park (min 16/2)
part saver:
20 points a place @ 5/2 (betfair) Abbreviate (min 9/4)Value Is Everythingdon’t take the 16/2 GT 8/1 is available
GL today
Eyesight going, 6 looks like a 5 to me these days.
Note to self: Beware of backing in novice limited handicaps – at least this early in the deason. So little chase form to go on and therefore horses that could improve massively.
Value Is EverythingYou may have seen on an pld ante-post thread some bets for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Backing Thistlecrack @ 6/1 and Native Ruler @ 14/1 with savers on Might Bite 12/1 and Sizing John 8.4/1. But I’ve since laid both Thistlecrack and some Native Ruler back at the same prices. imo Neither main bet is currently value and the savers – although have now got better chances – now look too short. However, there is one that still looks value.
Cheltenham Gold Cup:
26 points @ 20/1 (888, 19/1 betfair) Whisper (min 15/1)Value Is EverythingKing George:
20 points each way @ 9/1 (Sky, NRNB) Whisper (min 8/1)10/1 is availlable elsewhere, but that’s not Non-runner no bet.
Value Is EverythingIf coming up soft or especially heavy at Kempton Bristol De Mai will look very good value at today’s 4/1 and as a result of his main rival having conditions to suit Might Bite will drift. But if the rain stays away good or good-soft will be against the Twiston-Davies horse’s chance. Although current betting seems to me priced more for good-soft and a drift (if any) will be less on BDM. Bristol’ improved when running away with the Betfair Chase, putting up a top class effort. But no other horse in the race showed their form and it would be wrong to get carried away. He’s no Kauto Star, at least not yet. Might Bite looked to be running away with the RSA before almost giving it away on the run-in; wandering badly. In the end just getting back up to beat stable companion Whisper on the line. On the day Might Bite was a lot better horse than distances suggest, but too much is probably being made of that because both horses have undoubtedly improved since. Signs of temperament as a novice seemingly replaced with a better attitude of late, even allowing another horse to lead him last time. Hopefully will do the same here, although wouldn’t want to see too many in front/around him; might not like being crowded. Jumping is an asset these days. Came down in the Kauto Star Novice this day last season with the race at his mercy and would’ve put up a time that compared well with Thistlecrack‘s King George. Might Bite has potential to improve again and should be favourite, whether he should be as short as 6/4? Not for me. If all stand their ground Fox Norton will also drift if soft/heavy, placing more emphasis on stamina. Form mainly as a 2 miler. Odds-on defeat last time out in the Tingle Creek, Possibly frightened himself with a mistake at the first and a poorer round of jumping than is usual leaving him on the back foot. Racing further back than any of his victories at the top level. Hopefully connections don’t try similar hold up tactics (as a lot do when going up in trip). Six lengths winner of the Melling Chase proves he stays at least 2 1/2 miles and could well stay 3 if conditions suit speed. Traffic Fluide and Double Shuffle just as well stay at home – outclassed. Outlander and Tea For Two need to improve massively from Haydock, O’ having 1/2 alength over TFT but with 66 lengths to make up on winner Bristol De Mai. Outlander won the JN Wine penultimate start after an inauspicious reappearance. But beaten a long way out and probably more to it than just stamina. Had pelvis trouble last year and possible that’s going to make him inconsistent. Tea For Two clambering over the last in the Betfair and out on his feet. Travelled well until the straight at Haydock and little doubt suited by a test of speed at 3 miles. Another whose chance deteriorates on soft ground. Placed in this last year, but on whatever surface I’ll be against him – cant see recovering in time. Disko is a far more interesting Irish contender than his owner-mate. Ground and trip not a problem and is one that could take on Bristol De Mai up front although doesn’t need to lead. Showed improved form last time out, giving 7 lbs and a 1/2 length beating to Ballyoisin. However, this grade 1 will need quite a lot extra. 2016 wasn’t a classic renewal of the King George, Cue Card disappointing but stable companion Thistlecrack deserves credit for winning as a novice. Looked capable of more progression and may need to if Might Bite or Bristol De Mai run well… However Thistlecrack was way below form over hurdles on reappearance/first run after injury. Questions to answer now. Will he ever recapture his best, let alone do so after such a disappointing run with only three weeks to step up? Looks unlikely. One I like at the odds is Whisper. Just failing to hold Total Recall who received a stone from the Nicky Henderson horse. Trainer currently in great form. Whisper would be a lot shorter without the Lambourn master trainer’s negative words about the handicapper slaughtering Whisper’s mark after Newbury. But Henderson is a trainer, not a form expert. Form of having 9 lengths back to Regal Encore (who recieved 11 lbs) just the same as it would’ve been if the well handicapped Total Recall wasn’t there. The performance better than majority of previous Hennessey winners and doesn’t need much more improvement to be right in the shake up.
Although possible Whisper is better right-handed; of those four right-handed runs:
Two were handicaps, one of which he comes out the best horse at the weights – ahead of winner Saphir De Rheu. One was on chase debut on reappearance in January 2015, obviously had some kind of problem to be off so long (April to Jan). Didn’t jump well and not seen again over fences for almost two years. Suspect something was wrong with him at that time – also below par 5th in Cole Harden’s Stayers Hurdle when next seen before bouncing back when beating that horse at Aintree. Then that two horse race, but calling it that doesn’t do justice to the performance. At Kempton on this season’s reappearance against Clan Des Obeaux who’s gone on to beat Vintage Clouds easily by 7 lengths giving him 7 lbs and then failing only by 2 3/4 lengths when carrying 11-12 off a mark of 155 in the Caspian Caviar – even though getting behind and making a fast move to get in front. Clan Des Obeaux may well be on his way to Grade 1 company himself. Beating him as good as anything Whisper had done previously over fences. Improved subsequently at Newbury. So imo he’ll probably act right-handed. Yes, been beaten by his stable companion more than once before and probably will again here. But Might Bite is 6/4 and Whisper 10/1 or may be better still 9/1 NRNB with Skybet look attractive odds… And with so many questions about those at the head of the market an each way bet seems wise.Value Is Everything1:20 Kempton:
33 points @ 10/1 (C) Private Malone (min 17/2)
60 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Mister Whitaker (min 9/2)Value Is Everything1:55 Kempton:
44 points @ 7/1 (FD) Fountains Windfall (min 6/1)69 points @ 5/2 (B365) Mia’s Storm (min 9/4)
saver:
28 points @ 4/1 (C) Ballyoptic (min 7/2)Value Is Everything1:20 Kempton:
33 points @ 10/1 (C) Private Malone (min 17/2)
60 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Mister Whitaker (min 9/2)It’s a competitive race. Reigning Supreme may well start favourite given Henderson’s record at this meeting. Undoubted potential, but off a mark of 134 will – in his first ever chase – need to be better than ever was over hurdles. Possible, but I’d rather take him on at around 5/1. Hells Kitchen is a massive chasing type that surely must win good races over fences at some point. But Fry isn’t quite in such good form and imo HK makes too many mistakes and doesn’t look entirely straightforward, so will pass on him too. Mister Whitaker has only been put up 7 lbs for an easy Carlisle triumph. On the upgrade and as long as it isn’t too soft looks a good bet at around 11/2. Hasn’t been too far away from the front in his two chases and this race doesn’t look to have much pace. Might pay to race handily which is one reason have also gone for Private Malone. Emma Lavelle has had 2 winners and 2 seconds (and a 4th who should’ve been a lot closer in the Tommy Whittle) in her last 7 starts. Private Malone himself showed improved form last time out (off just 1 lb lower) to be a good 1 1/2 lengths second to Markov at Fontwell. Winner since won by 6 lengths off a 3 lbs higher mark. Private Malone is now on the same mark that saw him take a handicap hurdle by 4 1/2 lengths.
Value Is Everything
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