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Folks – can I ask that we treat each other and our alternative views and opinions with respect.
Thanks,
David (Cormack15)Not at all Joni. I confess I haven’t read the Frankel thread (being more a jumping person), but I will now, am intrigued! Really, racing is first and foremost a sport (I want to prove my horse is better/stronger/faster than yours), and without that passion and belief it would be nothing but a business. How boring. Keep believing, I say.
Jonibake wrote :-
“The Frankel thread may not be everyone’s cup of tea but it HAS had nearly 34,000 views over the last 3 years and was kindly voted “thread of the year” last year so those of us that regularly contribute to it can’t be spouting too much garbage surely otherwise people wouldn’t read it would they?!
Anyway – thanks for sharing your thoughts and keep posting!!!”
I voted for it last year Joni, and I’ve seen nothing to change my mind on that matter
Jonibake wrote :-
“The Frankel thread may not be everyone’s cup of tea but it HAS had nearly 34,000 views over the last 3 years and was kindly voted “thread of the year” last year so those of us that regularly contribute to it can’t be spouting too much garbage surely otherwise people wouldn’t read it would they?!
Anyway – thanks for sharing your thoughts and keep posting!!!”
I voted for it last year Joni, and I’ve seen nothing to change my mind on that matter
Much appreciated Big G!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Not at all Joni. I confess I haven’t read the Frankel thread (being more a jumping person), but I will now, am intrigued! Really, racing is first and foremost a sport (I want to prove my horse is better/stronger/faster than yours), and without that passion and belief it would be nothing but a business. How boring. Keep believing, I say.
Couldn’t agree more!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Louise – What fabulous posts from you and MV. Wise and reasoned. Thank you. I do worry that myself and the other fans of Frankel sometimes come across as a bit TOO positive and “happy clappy” – believe you me, I TRY and stay reasoned and measured about the horse but he really did have such a profound impact on me that it is quite difficult. Reading such harsh and, in my view, uncalled for criticism on this thread is tough when I genuinely don’t think it is merited. So it is encouraging to read posts like yours and MV.
I can see another Music Video of yours appearing on this thread Joni…..’Love is in the air’ would be perfect for you and your ‘Frankel’ Fans
Roger Charlton reckons Fair Eva inhaled some kickback.
I’ve watched the race again numerous times and Fair Eva weakens in the last furlong. After looking a possible for 3rd at one stage, she ends up 5th and an ever increasing distance behind the leading four. If they had gone another 1/2 furlong, she would have been beaten a good bit further still.
Race reporters often use the phrase “Stayed on at one pace” when the actuality is that the horse is weakening relative to the others. The sectional times often show that all the runners are slowing in the last furlong, as opposed to the notion that the leading ones are quickening. The quickening usually happens earlier in the race and it then becomes about who can sustain the run best.
I felt Tayaaleb was coming with a promising looking run but she wandered a bit and ultimately her run faded. Winter started increasing her advantage over Daban in the closing stages. Daban had been close enough to strike but was weakening late on and that was the only reason she didn’t get second. To my eyes Rhododendron was out in sufficient time to win, but her run takes too long to get going, she didn’t pick up sharply enough in my opinion and she comes past fillies who have run their race and it creates the illusion of “Flying home”
Opinions are clearly strong on this thread and I am just putting my opinion forward on how the race panned out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Louise – What fabulous posts from you and MV. Wise and reasoned. Thank you. I do worry that myself and the other fans of Frankel sometimes come across as a bit TOO positive and “happy clappy” – believe you me, I TRY and stay reasoned and measured about the horse but he really did have such a profound impact on me that it is quite difficult. Reading such harsh and, in my view, uncalled for criticism on this thread is tough when I genuinely don’t think it is merited. So it is encouraging to read posts like yours and MV.
I can see another Music Video of yours appearing on this thread Joni…..’Love is in the air’ would be perfect for you and your ‘Frankel’ Fans
I’ll get on the case Gordio!!! Might ask you to provide some background harmony. Is that ok? :)
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
OK – I’ve deleted most/all of the slanging match posts (wasting 30 mins of my life in the process) – repeats by same combatants will result in user and ip address ban.
That is mostly an interview with Teddy Grimthorpe Joni, you’ll concede that he’s not exactly an unbiased assessor of Frankel.
I really think a drop in fee is a big possibility. You’ve got to do something spectacular to be unchanged or increased after two crops. I think he’ll need Cracksman to win the Derby, one or two more elite 3yos and at least two of the top 10 juveniles in both sexes to hold at his current fee. They’re asking Galileo money for a date with Frankel right now.
Galileo’s fee is massively higher than Frankels (quite rightly) – but it is misleading to infer that the fees are similar when Galileo is between 3 and 4 times the price.
Galileo’s fee is private, negotiated on a mare by mare basis for any outside owners who want to breed to him. Anecdotes from the bloodstock world suggest Group placed mares or proven pattern producers receive a significant discount, down to something in the region of Frankel’s fee.
As I said previously, it is far too soon to judge if Frankel’s fee is good value. His oldest offspring are only two months into their three-year-old careers, and have some developing to do before they reach their peaks. Frankel himself was not exactly precocious, was he?
Anyway, if anyone was forced to make a judgement now whether his fee would go up or down next year, they could look at the stats of Invincible Spirit, Sea The Stars and Dubawi, chosen because it is difficult to find other stallion fees at and above Frankel’s level, and there are freely available statistics about their progeny at The Racing Post.
Invincible Spirit has a fee of 120,000 Euro (£100,000). He has had 11 crops of three-year-olds and has 45 offspring rated higher than 110 RPR. So, an average of about 4 per year.
Sea The Stars has a fee of 125,000 Euro (£105,000). He has had 5 crops of three-year-olds and has 23 offspring rated higher than 110 RPR. So, an average of about 4.5 per year.
Dubawi has a fee of £250,000. He has had 8 crops of three-year-olds and has 63 offspring rated higher than 110 RPR. So, an average of almost 8 per year.
Frankel hasn’t even had one complete crop of three-year-old racers, but already has 4 offspring rated higher than 110 RPR, and the prospect that a few more might join that 110+ group by the end of this season. The more there are in that group, the higher the probability that one or more will be a lot better than just Group 3 and Group 2 level.
Even this early in the year his fee does not look excessive.
As for some of the Frankel’s being a bit difficult or headstrong, is that not a good sign rather than bad? In the last 60 years from Nasrullah to Montjeu, some of the most sought after stallions had a tendency to produce their fair share of temperamental ones.
As I said previously, it is far too soon to judge if Frankel’s fee is good value. His oldest offspring are only two months into their three-year-old careers, and have some developing to do before they reach their peaks. Frankel himself was not exactly precocious, was he?
Anyway, if anyone was forced to make a judgement now whether his fee would go up or down next year, they could look at the stats of Invincible Spirit, Sea The Stars and Dubawi, chosen because it is difficult to find other stallion fees at and above Frankel’s level, and there are freely available statistics about their progeny at The Racing Post.
Invincible Spirit has a fee of 120,000 Euro (£100,000). He has had 11 crops of three-year-olds and has 45 offspring rated higher than 110 RPR. So, an average of about 4 per year.
Sea The Stars has a fee of 125,000 Euro (£105,000). He has had 5 crops of three-year-olds and has 23 offspring rated higher than 110 RPR. So, an average of about 4.5 per year.
Dubawi has a fee of £250,000. He has had 8 crops of three-year-olds and has 63 offspring rated higher than 110 RPR. So, an average of almost 8 per year.
Frankel hasn’t even had one complete crop of three-year-old racers, but already has 4 offspring rated higher than 110 RPR, and the prospect that a few more might join that 110+ group by the end of this season. The more there are in that group, the higher the probability that one or more will be a lot better than just Group 3 and Group 2 level.
Even this early in the year his fee does not look excessive.
As for some of the Frankel’s being a bit difficult or headstrong, is that not a good sign rather than bad? In the last 60 years from Nasrullah to Montjeu, some of the most sought after stallions had a tendency to produce their fair share of temperamental ones.
1. Frankel costs £125,000 for each live foal that he produces. STS , a Guineas-Derby-Arc winner costs nothing like that when he first started, his price is roughly the same as Frankel’s now, but only after two horses from his first crop won classics in the UK and Germany
2. Frankel several high profile mares have been sent to Frankel
3. Whatever about the rest of the season, most of the 2 year olds that we saw from May or June of last year, we probably have seen the best of what they can do.The two fillies , Fair Eva and Queen Kindly might win a pattern race, and if they do, they can be said to have been successful. It will be up to the 2 year olds who started their campaign in September of last year, the less exposed ones.. Those who had 2 lengthy two year old seasons have not really progressed. (Someone will say Cunco, but, he shared a field with 2 other Frankels)
One big defence for Frankel the sire is that trainers , especially trainers those who only saw the horse in the flesh in the parade ring or glanced at him on the gallops, they will need time to figure out what is the optimum distance for their horse. We saw, despite all the exposure how Cunco looked to be promising at the end of the 2 year campaign at 10 furlongs at the listed race. Maybe if Gosden had a crystal ball in January 2016, maybe he might not have sent Cunco out so early?
4. As for stats, fact is, STS did produce two horses that won classics within his first crop! A third horse from that 1st crop has since gone on to win a Group 1.(Went to stud in the end of 2009, started mating in 2010, first born 2011, and a handful ran at 2 years at 2013) Some of his first crop would later go on to win Group 2-3s and place in Group 1s around the globe when they got older. He was not that price immediately!
Unless there is a Leger horse within the Frankels, there might be (Many of those AOB horses at Chester this week scream St Leger) There is little prospect of Frankel producing an Oaks/Derby winner this season.One thing holding STS back is the lack of 2 year old Group 1 winners. Word is, after a relatively fine season last year, the Aga Khan will be using him more and he had a very nice book this Spring.
5. As for Invincible Spirit, for a sprinter, his first crop included the French Derby winner! Bar the crops of 2006 and 2009, a horse from each crop won a Group 1.(obviously we have to see what the 2015 crop do) His stats ain’t too shabby. Bit pricey though (€125,000, but was not that first immediately) .Seems to do well in France
6. Dubawi , with his first crop also produced Group 1 winners! In fact EVERY Annual Crop has produced at least 1 Group 1 winner in the crop, at some point in the horse’s career , somewhere around the world (obviously the 2015 crop we have to wait and see) His first Crop included a 2000 Guineas winner. Dubawi is famous for his horses being allowed to develop slowly. And, for that, they are more prominent by 4 +, where the really big money races are looked at. Of course, he has produced Classic winners with Night of Thunder and New Bay, recently. 9 horses from his First Crop have won Group 1s in places like the UK, France, Dubai (obviously), Hong Kong, US, and Australia; countries with vastly superior prize money (sick, considering some of the true donkeys can make such crazy money and never win a race again) These winners have come in sprints, mile and middle distance . At please note, while the likes of Australia hand out Group 1s like candy, these Group 1s won by Dubawi in foreign countries are premier group 1s where some European horses ran in them. Lucky Nine for example won Group 1s that are part of the World Sprint Series beating the likes of European Sprint champion Sole Power
7. It is all about the Group 1’s!
Your comparison is slightly flawed. Bar STS, both aforementioned horses prominently lie in the top echelons of sires when world prize money is taken into account each year. (STS did well last year) Frankel’s Japanese horse seriously bumped him up to the top of the 2 year old list last year (coz they have crazy prize money) None of the horses that you mentioned were anywhere near £125,000 when they started.That is the issue!
Frankel is already there price wise. This is really important. Frankel has had a nice book of mares in from 2013-2015. You have horses like Australia and Camelot coming and both of them are well under £60 k a live foal, not to mention Gleneagles (Pressure is also on STS!) Juddmonte ain’t the only ones with a great band of broadmares or funds to snap up whoever they want that does not have Saddlers Well/Galileo blood. That might be tricky though as Camelot/Montjeu were from SW group too) Coolmore will be hell bent that either of them succeed Galileo. And you know how good Coolmore are in getting people hyped and getting investors eg China Racing Club into looking at their horses. Competition is going to be tight. You also have Kingman lurking around and he is only £50K a pop.
Since it is all about the Group 1s, those horses, who have had to compete with Galileo, have pretty damn good cvs in Group 1 producing horses – STS is only starting (doubt there will be anything from him in the next year)
8. A two year old is capable of ending the season in the 100’s by placing in a maiden, winning a maiden and possibly beating a horse or two that went on to win a Group 3 shortly after wards, and maybe place in a listed or group 3, 4 races 1 win (ideally 2). Big deal?. Let us see how many of them retain that mark. I believe Palmer’s Majoris was once 100 now down to 95, might be lower after his last blow out
It is all about the Group 1s or at least their performances in them, and ideally, in Europe as oppose to Oz or America where their main market can see them. Blowing up before the race starts and it occurring far too frequently with a number of horses does not bode well! (Frustrating, because some of these Frankels, while they might not have the speed like him, do have engines and do have talent. Fair Eva looked great in the Guineas until she tired coming into the final 2 furlongs, seemed to handle the dip)
A couple more of his runners, Count octave and Cunco got spanked by the Galileos today.
Lot of pressure on Cracksman next week in the Dante stakes to uphold the Frankel legacy. Can imagine that going off a silly sort of hype price though, something around evens, will you be willing to take that though given how laboured he looked at Epsom? I’m not sure.
A couple more of his runners, Count octave and Cunco got spanked by the Galileos today.
Lot of pressure on Cracksman next week in the Dante stakes to uphold the Frankel legacy. Can imagine that going off a silly sort of hype price though, something around evens, will you be willing to take that though given how laboured he looked at Epsom? I’m not sure.
Rather surprised with Gosden. He really has flogged Cunco. He ran something like 6 or 7 times at 2, never gave him a break. It was a bit much asking Cunco to run after a quick turn around from Sandown which was a bit of a bog irrespective of the so called “good” description. Would have been better off seeing Monarchs Glen try the Lingfield Trial (at least get him a potential listed win or place) As for anything Qatar Racing touches , meh.
As for Cracksman, this won’t be a popular thought, anything by Roger Charlton………..
(Al Kazeem , aside, who by the way was a Dubawi)
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