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That is mostly an interview with Teddy Grimthorpe Joni, you’ll concede that he’s not exactly an unbiased assessor of Frankel.
I really think a drop in fee is a big possibility. You’ve got to do something spectacular to be unchanged or increased after two crops. I think he’ll need Cracksman to win the Derby, one or two more elite 3yos and at least two of the top 10 juveniles in both sexes to hold at his current fee. They’re asking Galileo money for a date with Frankel right now.
It’s not just the ability that breeders will assess, it’s the attitude. Even you’ll concede that many of these Frankels are horrible beasts no matter how talented they are. Too keen, badly behaved pre-race, heads on one side, temperament…
Many are not nice propositions for a jockey to ride or a trainer to train. If you’re spending that sort of money on a covering, you’ll dream big and want your stallion to be a sire of sires. Instead, many of these Frankel colts look to be in dire need of gelding.
Bill Oppenheim has been writing a regular column in Thoroughbred Daily News for some years now. He writes about breeding in North America and Europe, and his speciality is the statistics which determine how good stallions are at producing elite performers (by ratings, by money, by percentage of Group level performers, etc).
His column on 25th April 2017, about second-season sires, contained the following paragraph:
“Some private research we have done shows that Frankel’s runners are turning in ‘superior’ performances (Timeform 90+ @ 2yo, Timeform 95+ @ 3yo) at a better than 35% clip, twice as good as the next sire in six groups (I assume he means year-groups) of North American and European young sires, and three times as good as most of the top sires on the list.”
What numerical evidence there is so far appears to be favourable. Breeders and buyers tend to look at the numbers. How horses behave might be interesting, but what matters is: do they win races, do they win money, and do they win prestige. But it is only one and a quarter years into a three year period necessary to provide evidence of the value of Frankel’s offspring relative to his stud fees. As is usual, the fillies will turn into breeding mares and be worth their costs of production, even if some of them sold for high prices at the sales might not seem like it straight after their racing careers. As usual, for the colts, it is all or nothing, can they get a stallion job when they have finished racing? There are loads of duff Galileo and Dubawi colts out there, as there will be loads of duff Frankel colts. What buyers are buying when they look at a colt by these stallions is – what is the probabilty of getting a really good one that will pay for all the duff ones, and lots more as well ? Just like betting, it is a probabilty and percentage game. At the moment, two months into his second season, there is some evidence that the percentages for Frankel look good.
Dubawi’s advertised fee is £250,000, and Galileo’s is Private, which most people take to mean that his fee is more than that. I guess Frankel’s fee of £125,000 will stay the same next year, and after that it will depend on his stats for his offspring’s first three years of racing.
Where was that stated or implied?
I think that it’s the underlying current in this thread. I may, of course, be wrong.
You’d be very wrong.
No horse, in the next 10 years will do what Frankel did, least not in Britain. No Group 1 Ballydoyle, even the greatest of them all, has gone unbeaten either. If a horse like Dancing Brave, with his three year old achievements and STS slightly better achievements are over shadowed by Frankel’s 3 years of racing against many of the same opponents (top class opponents it must be added,their cv’s are solid) at 2 main distances,then there is the Guineas-Oaks-Arc winner of 2008, the unbeaten Zarkava (sired by a Juddmonte Stallion) then there is no hope for any other horse,never mind one sired by Frankel.
The core of the issue is based on hype and quality of the dams, money hand over and most important of all, and slightly relevant to Fair Eva, the temperament or lack thereof. Fair Eva has been mostly a success in some ways
I’m underwhelmed by Frankel the stallion but I’m not writing him off.
Still, a question to Joni and the Frankel ultras:
At the end of this season do you think Frankel’s covering fee will:
a. stay unchanged
b. be reduced
c. increase
That would be horrendous PR to reduce it. Besides it would only encourage more breeders to use him on lesser mares if the could afford it. Breed the best to the best . You’d like to think by the third crop that people would have found ways to control the temperament of the horses and most importantly, what are their foals likely best distances
Returning to the original topic of Fair Eva, she looked to me like a “made” two year old last year and doesn’t seem to have progressed physically this year. She also looks more of a sprinter than a miler, so might do better returned to a shorter trip.
On the subject of Frankel-as-a-stallion, we’d all like him to do well, but on the evidence so far, he’s proved a little disappointing. Don’t forget he received an absolutely stellar book of mares for his first season (and an almost equally classy one for his second), the sort of book normally reserved for a handful of world class sires like Galileo or Deep Impact. Even a selling plater would get some half-decent winners with those mares. I feel he should be doing a little better at this stage, although far too early to write him off.
Joni, you are right that I shouldn’t have written the word “crap”.
I regret that and I apologise for that to all the Frankel lovers out there.
People can have different opinions about Frankel’s first progeny, but it should be in fair and decent form.Returning to the original topic of Fair Eva, she looked to me like a “made” two year old last year and doesn’t seem to have progressed physically this year. She also looks more of a sprinter than a miler, so might do better returned to a shorter trip.
On the subject of Frankel-as-a-stallion, we’d all like him to do well, but on the evidence so far, he’s proved a little disappointing. Don’t forget he received an absolutely stellar book of mares for his first season (and an almost equally classy one for his second), the sort of book normally reserved for a handful of world class sires like Galileo or Deep Impact. Even a selling plater would get some half-decent winners with those mares. I feel he should be doing a little better at this stage, although far too early to write him off.
The same ‘sprinter’ that was left looking rather short of pace in the Lowther last season?
She stayed the mile fine but Charlton reported afterwards that she blew a lot – leading me to believe that they didn’t have her as race fit as they thought, he doesn’t have much (if any) experience in getting a filly ready for a guineas first time out and in hindsight she may have been better served taking in a trial rather than two racecourse gallops.
Her run gave me no reason for her not to stay at a mile but where she goes next could be dictated by the weather as I am not sure that her action will be suited to softer ground (Coronation Stakes at Ascot rather than the Irish 1000g).
That is mostly an interview with Teddy Grimthorpe Joni, you’ll concede that he’s not exactly an unbiased assessor of Frankel.
I really think a drop in fee is a big possibility. You’ve got to do something spectacular to be unchanged or increased after two crops. I think he’ll need Cracksman to win the Derby, one or two more elite 3yos and at least two of the top 10 juveniles in both sexes to hold at his current fee. They’re asking Galileo money for a date with Frankel right now.
It’s not just the ability that breeders will assess, it’s the attitude. Even you’ll concede that many of these Frankels are horrible beasts no matter how talented they are. Too keen, badly behaved pre-race, heads on one side, temperament…
Many are not nice propositions for a jockey to ride or a trainer to train. If you’re spending that sort of money on a covering, you’ll dream big and want your stallion to be a sire of sires. Instead, many of these Frankel colts look to be in dire need of gelding.
Just to maintain and maybe improve the reputation of these 1st Crop Frankel’s Gelding might be worthwhile. At least the pressure is off on the win – run ratio, they can train on until 5-6 , maybe win some big money races abroad and still enhance Frankel’s reputation. Cirrus Des Aigle and Sole Power’s reputations were hardly damaged by being gelded and it did not affect the former’s inability to be able to run in the Arc ruin his reputation.
They don’t want to do what Godolpin did (surprise surprise) and mess up New Approach’s chances when messing around with his price . He produced a Champion 2 year old-Guineas winner and an Oaks winner with his first crop and his progress has stalled because of the pricing mess up
Joni, you are right that I shouldn’t have written the word “crap”.
I regret that and I apologise for that to all the Frankel lovers out there.
People can have different opinions about Frankel’s first progeny, but it should be in fair and decent form.No problem HB – appreciate the apology. We all have our different opinions – that’s what makes the game so fascinating. Would be dull if we all agreed wouldn’t it.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
T/O – good luck to you mate. I haven’t the time to read through your long post but promise to do so next time I have a spare couple of days. ;) I agree on a truce – not interested in a wall-pissing competition.
I am glad you think one or two of them might be all right. I guess time will tell.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Returning to the original topic of Fair Eva, she looked to me like a “made” two year old last year and doesn’t seem to have progressed physically this year. She also looks more of a sprinter than a miler, so might do better returned to a shorter trip.
On the subject of Frankel-as-a-stallion, we’d all like him to do well, but on the evidence so far, he’s proved a little disappointing. Don’t forget he received an absolutely stellar book of mares for his first season (and an almost equally classy one for his second), the sort of book normally reserved for a handful of world class sires like Galileo or Deep Impact. Even a selling plater would get some half-decent winners with those mares. I feel he should be doing a little better at this stage, although far too early to write him off.
While on paper, the quality of Mares are “stellar”, based on their own performances on the track or ability to produce group winning horses, even some group 1 winning horses , many of these star track performers are first time dams as well and we don’t know how good they will be. Granted Ouija Board did produce with Galileo , Australia , she hasn’t done much as a broodmare . I understand she has some complications every now and again. Who would have thought, despite her pedigree that Kind would have produced 4 horses, two of them Group 1 winners, that at least won at listed level, if you looked at her meh track record? Henry Cecil again is spot on, the kind of mare that you use IS important, so some slack might be given to the likes of Frankel. It is after all two horses that makes a foal.
You take Sea The Stars, he is now beginning to come into his own. Granted, he produced two classic winners in his first crop, but , alot of dross. Many of them are gelded by 3 (Mark Prescott has a big thing for them) His price tag started steady but he is now, with Invincible Spirit , the most expenses sire in Ireland, available to the public at €125,000. However, he too got hype based on his strong constitution and temperament.
His first crop he got Zarkava! Sadly, I think that horse broke his legs and was put down. I think he was sent to her again the following year and nothing happened. We have since since 1 of her products by Dubai , 3 for 10! Zarak, has placed in Group 1’s twice, nearly bet STS’s Cloth of Stars in the recent French Group 1. STS also got to mate with Zarkava’s mother, and they produced minor listed and Group 3 wins. Then there was the meeting with the proven broadmare Bordighera. No great shakes (Horse placed in some smart races) Even with Tagrooda, her dam was very well bred, and while no superstar, was very admirable when she ran for Jim Bolger.
Judge – if you feed these people they will keep on. Not worth it mate.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
That last post T/O was a bit too far and I would have reported it if Judge hadn’t already.
On Fair Eva, Charlton has said: “I know everyone said she didn’t stay, but I think she does stay and she’ll more than likely run over a mile again next time.”
She has an entry in the Irish 1000 but I can’t find a price anywhere. If the ground is Ok it seems a much better option that waiting for the Coronation Stakes. But then I’m just a bad punter who knows very little about Juddmonte.
No problem HB – appreciate the apology. We all have our different opinions – that’s what makes the game so fascinating.
Thank you Joni, I’m glad and relieved about it!
By the way, I am quite keen on one certain Frankel, which is Cracksman,
but maybe you know that already..Did you see the RUK piece on Fair Eva? The slow motion shots of her on the downs were stunning. What a gorgeous individual. I hope she goes on to better things for her wonderful trainer. Frankel might improve his mares, since African Rose hasn’t produced anything as good as Fair Eva previously. As for comparisons with Galileo, Sadler’s Wells was not as good as ND, on statistics, and Galileo is not as good as SW, so it is reasonable to expect that the next generation will underperform again. Tesio said that lines fade naturally. Perhaps huge books of good mares have propped up this line longer than expected… who knows. There are/have been a lot of other sires statistically better than Galileo, based on winners to starters, winners to foals, and black type winners to foals (including Dubawi boo! hiss!), so you can use facts whatever way you want. I can clearly remember people saying Galileo would end up in the NH yard, so it’s always unwise to make sweeping statements about young sires.
Did you see the RUK piece on Fair Eva? The slow motion shots of her on the downs were stunning. What a gorgeous individual. I hope she goes on to better things for her wonderful trainer. Frankel might improve his mares, since African Rose hasn’t produced anything as good as Fair Eva previously. As for comparisons with Galileo, Sadler’s Wells was not as good as ND, on statistics, and Galileo is not as good as SW, so it is reasonable to expect that the next generation will underperform again. Tesio said that lines fade naturally. Perhaps huge books of good mares have propped up this line longer than expected… who knows. There are/have been a lot of other sires statistically better than Galileo, based on winners to starters, winners to foals, and black type winners to foals (including Dubawi boo! hiss!), so you can use facts whatever way you want. I can clearly remember people saying Galileo would end up in the NH yard, so it’s always unwise to make sweeping statements about young sires.
Louise – What fabulous posts from you and MV. Wise and reasoned. Thank you. I do worry that myself and the other fans of Frankel sometimes come across as a bit TOO positive and “happy clappy” – believe you me, I TRY and stay reasoned and measured about the horse but he really did have such a profound impact on me that it is quite difficult. Reading such harsh and, in my view, uncalled for criticism on this thread is tough when I genuinely don’t think it is merited. So it is encouraging to read posts like yours and MV.
The Frankel thread may not be everyone’s cup of tea but it HAS had nearly 34,000 views over the last 3 years and was kindly voted “thread of the year” last year so those of us that regularly contribute to it can’t be spouting too much garbage surely otherwise people wouldn’t read it would they?!
Anyway – thanks for sharing your thoughts and keep posting!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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