May 14, 2019 at 17:03 #1437507
The distance concern for TDH is a myth on pedigree. Too Darn Hot is a full-brother to those very talented fillies So Mi Dar and Lah Ti Dar. So Mi Dar never tackled a distance shorter than a mile and a quarter after the age of two, while Lah Ti Dar is unbeaten in three starts from 10 to 12 furlongs.
If anything it’s the 2000 guineas he would’ve been more vulnerable.May 14, 2019 at 17:06 #1437519
Add to that Too Darn Hot also represents the remarkable Dubawi-Singspiel cross which had produced 10 black-type winners from a total of only 30 foals. With the Group 1 winners Left Hand and Wuheida and Group 2 winner Old Persian among them. Left Hand’s group victories came over 10 and 12 furlongs, while Old Persian’s Group 2 successes were both gained over a mile and a half.May 14, 2019 at 17:08 #1437520
Wont be the distance that beats him I imagine it’ll be a lack of sharpness and/or fitness first time out.May 14, 2019 at 20:26 #1437601
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A myth of pedigree perhaps Mike, but if you watch through some of his 2yo runs, it would be a slight worry.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 15, 2019 at 13:22 #1437941
I can’t find the quote, but didn’t even JG say something about doubting his chances of staying the Derby distance based on the way he runs?
I can’t for the life of me understand why Line of Duty is so weak in this? Is there a question on ground maybe? His 2 group wins were on GS.May 15, 2019 at 14:30 #1437946
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It’s competitive Frenchy. Surfman been hyped. TDH the best 2yo last year. AOB ruling the Derby trials so far. Telecaster as well.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 15, 2019 at 14:42 #1437947
It’s a great looking race for sure, can’t wait for it. I’m still happy to take the odds if they keep drifting and maybe some more for the Derby. Come on Line of Duty!
JG just said he’d have liked 10 more days on Too Darn Hot, I wonder what we read into that?!May 15, 2019 at 16:32 #1437999
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it’s hard to get excited by this years Derby, doesn’t seem that Ballydoyle themselves know who is there number one contender and who knows what will happen with Too Darn Hot tomorrow, I backed Line Of Duty at 25/1 during the winter so hoping for a good run in the Dante but it could be the race throws up more questions than answers.May 15, 2019 at 18:09 #1438007
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The ante post markets before the season started suggested they felt Japan was the best of the lot, went from 20/1 to 8/1 without hitting the track
But he has clearly had some problems
Be interesting to see how he runs tomorrow
A staying on second to too darn hot would make me happy as an ante post backerMay 15, 2019 at 21:20 #1438046
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JG said in an interview this was the only available race left for him after he missed the greenham and the guineas. He also said they would decide whether it was derby or at James palace next so obviously they have no idea if too darn hot will stay. What chance have the punters got when the trainer has no idea. Sounds like it’s unlikely he will stay to be honest which leaves the Dante wide open although tdh could win the Dante but not stay the 12f of the derby. Line of duty probably the value bet in the Dante imho.May 17, 2019 at 09:16 #1438819
It does actually look like a really poor Derby now unfortunately this year. The last time the derby field quality was as poor as this one will be, Wings of Eagles won @ 40/1. I’m going to give it one last anti post go as I still think there is a bit of value in the market.
It’s been a pretty unlucky year so far for me, with Too Darn Hot getting injured and then Mount Everest going the same way. My third big anti post Line of Duty was simply horrible yesterday, but gotta keep going!
The 2 biggest trials, the Guineas and Dante were poor from a Derby trial perspective. You would think that Telecaster’s connections would be drawing the money from the on track cashpoints in excitement to pay the supplement fee afterwards rather than almost downplaying his chances and suggesting the Irish or French Derbys instead. That says a lot to me and he might have had a hard race as well. His 117 RPR winning figure is decent enough, but I’m not sure it was that good a race? Looked really poor after all the hype for it. I cant see the winner of the Derby coming from the Dante and it definitely won’t come from the Guineas as Madhmoon won’t stay on breeding.
Sir Dragonet could be the one, but he surely can’t be trusted at Epsom after what was a horrible looking run for the first 6F at Chester. It looked impressive enough in the end, but it was on soft ground and not sure he beat anything in the end, plus if he does what he did there initially at Epsom surely he’s got no chance.
Broome also could be the one, but no horse has dropped their race RPR by 4 like he’s done from Ballysax to Derrinstown and won the Derby in over 20 years that I’ve gone back. It just didn’t at all scream Derby winner, that Derrinstown win. Looked workmanlike to me and he has a bit less scope to improve I think now.
Bangkok(on already at 33s) and Circus Maximus would not be without chances now in this line up, but don’t seem to be derby winners. Mohawk I think is going to go to the Jockey Club and Norway I think could be my Leger horse, but the 2 left for me are Cape of Good Hope, who has kind of been forgotten about now, but won the Epsom Derby Trial and it was suggested afterwards he would be back. It has improved a bit in quality this trial in very recent seasons, with Cracksman being the obvious one to have run in it and COGH is a full brother to Idaho and Highland Reel so staying 12F should be no issues and there is a fair amount of value left in the price considering all that.
By process of elimination, the other one left is Anthony Van Dyke. The more I look at him and the more I look at how much the Derby has cut up in quality, I now think he has a great chance. He has the mix of speed and stamina, with solid 2yr old Group 1 7F RPRs of 115 & 118 and now proved that he has a great chance of staying 12F by winning the Lingfield Trial. It was not an impressive win, but when you consider, he had missed some training in the lead up and AOB said he was only just ready to start and would improve from it also suggesting he needs faster ground as well, plus Ryan Moore talking him up and saying he will definitely improve for it then all considering, he must have a great chance of at least placing in the Derby as he doesnt have to improve much to do that in this derby field. 8/1 could be a lot of value come the day and could even end up being the favourite if they don’t supplement Sir Dragonet.
So my last go anti post at the derby this year.
Cape of Good Hope 33/1
Anthony Van Dyck 8/1May 17, 2019 at 18:13 #1438928
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I would be quite surprised if they don’t supplement Telecaster for this. Surely the temptation will be too great for the owners and trainer. They will probably never be in this position again in their lifetime.
I’m not sure he had that hard a race yesterday, certainly not hard enough to rule him out of this.
I was impressed with him yesterday and believe he is the one to beat.May 17, 2019 at 21:39 #1438961
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Having watched the Dante again I can’t see telecaster winning the derby. Japan and surfman were miles off the pace and had no chance of catching him and too darn hot ran out of steam. Sir dragonet looked stunning and although he was behind it was donnacha trying to relax him so wouldn’t be as worried as others. He looks the one horse who could be a star but the going was very soft so we would have to wait and see if he can replicate that on quicker ground. Antony van dyck looks the most likely winner to me as he finished very strongly and wasn’t fully fit.
The value bet to me is mohawk who was conceding 5lbs in the Dee stakes and wasn’t given a hard ride.
I can’t be having Cape of good hope I’m afraid unless he takes a huge leap forward so its Antony van dyck for me with mohawk ew assuming he runs in the derby of course.
I agree that Broome was workmanlike and maybe has plateaued.May 17, 2019 at 23:08 #1439010
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Yes couldn’t touch telecaster at all
He very much had the run of the race in the dante
Still haven’t lost faith in Japan, the enormous drift suggested he wasnt fit and will come on tonnes for the run
Will likely add Anthony van dyck who was the best of the derby trial winners for me, thought the sir dragonet race completely fell apart and the two obrein horses picked up the piecesMay 18, 2019 at 05:56 #1439160
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I just couldn’t have AVD as a derby horse. I thought it was an awful race he won too.
For me, Sir Dragonet has been the most impressive this season. Can’t believe I didn’t back the 50s when hovering over it after he got an entry for Chester. It was his SP on debut (14/1) that convinced me they didn’t see him as a derby type despite him winning that race and then getting the entry at Chester. Annoying that but these things happen.
Bangkok is my idea of the winner at this stage for what it’s worth. I’ve got a small bit at 34.0 on the exchange but am probably gonna top up at some point. I’ll have to have some on the favourite as well as whilst I’m kicking myself for missing the price, I’ll be even more annoyed should it win and I finally get a winning bet on the derby but chose not to back it.
Don’t think Cape of Good Hope is very high up the pecking order either tbh.
Imo, they think Broome is their derby horse. For that reason, I’m very tempted by the 6.2 on the exchange with him. Very tempted. Which would likely mean I have an army of three to go with unless Surfman runs. I have a tiny bit on him from a few mins before the Dante.
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