Derby 2019

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This topic contains 189 replies, has 33 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 1 month, 3 weeks ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 91 through 105 (of 190 total)
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  • #1439196

    Mike007
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    Too Darn Hot bet gone down the drain, so process of elimination Anthony Van Dyck ew. Probably 1 of AOB’s wins it.

    #1439785

    FinalFurlong91
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    Obrein has said the French derby is a possibility for sir dragonet

    Doesn’t look much rain in the forecast for Epsom so I’d think his participation could be in doubt

    #1439798

    mickeyjp
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    They are waiting till the last moment to decide as are telecasters owners. So we could end up with a match up between Broome and Antony van dyck. Strange decision to send SD to the French derby. A furlong and a half shorter than the derby and stamina looks to be his forte. I would have thought Circus maximus looked ideal French derby material. Maybe the lads have been overanalyzing things.

    #1439873
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Sir Dragonet showed a very rounded action at Chester and both his runs have come (probably deliberately) on very soft ground. imo It’s extremely doubtful he’d be as effective on the firm side of good, especially on an undulating racecourse like Epsom. It’s just too much of an injury risk to run. However, if at the supplementary stage the weather forecast strongly suggests it will be soft ground, then and only then would I expect him to run at Epsom.

    value is everything
    #1439879
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    Sounds now like they are leaning towards here!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1439880

    Frenchy15
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    Where did you hear that Jack?

    #1439886
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    “Epsom is always where the lads would want to be,” says Aidan O’Brien, adding that if he was to bet on where Sir Dragonet would run next, it would be in the Derby.
    Racing post!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1439887

    Frenchy15
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    GT, what’s your thoughts re Broome and AVD at the moment? I see Broome you tipped anti post for the St Leger and AVD for the Derby. Broome does looks like more of a stayer to me and Australia’s are seeming to want a good trip, (Western Australia winning a 13F Listed last week). Does he have enough speed for a derby? AVD on the other hand looks to have the right mix of speed and stamina and both AOB and Ryan Moore said he will definitely improve on the Lingfield trial.

    #1439888

    Frenchy15
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    Who do we think is going to be the Ballydoyle number 1? I’ll put my money on AVD I think!

    #1439889

    Frenchy15
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    I agree with GT Jack Re: the ground. Was second guessing why AOB said that originally on Sunday, it can only be ground dependent surely. Why would they go to Chantilly over Epsom otherwise. The forecast into next week at Epsom looks pretty changeable, so we could get either yet.

    #1439911
    Gingertipster
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    Judging from the BBC forecast, there’s no guarantee of any rain between now and Derby Day, Frenchy. Am sure “the lads” would rather go to Epsom than Chantilly. If looking the same ground at both venues then it’ll be Epsom, but there’s more rain in the forecast for France than England. Of course they won’t say that. imo Everything that comes out the mouths of team Coolmore is about encouraging people to use their potential stallions. To be a soft ground specialist knocks millions off stud value.

    I do fear for the horse at Epsom on a firm surface, but – in a way – will make the betting market.

    value is everything
    #1439915
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Backed Broome for the St Leger because I do think he’ll stay well, Frenchy; but does have a turn of foot and will be fully effective at the Derby trip. “Form” of Derrinstown not as good as the Ballysax, but that’s what you often get with a hold up horse. Impressed me with the form shown at that early stage as a 3 year old and power of his finish in a truly run Ballysax. Concerns me a bit he’s sometimes slowly away though. Had thought if Too Darn Hot came here Broome would be playing for the places – and then go for the Leger. Trouble is now, if Broome proves good enough there’s no way they’ll run at Doncaster! That said, still think if (and it is a fairly big IF) there’s an above average Derby winner in the field, it will be either Broome or Telecaster.

    Obviously happy am on Anthony Van Dyck at a big price (“big” if you don’t take in to account the money already lost on Too Darn Hot and Quorto) but tbh I think he’s too short now – Broome imo has quite a bit better chance than AVD. Won the Lingfield Derby Trial as easily as his two year old form warrented. Should help that he’s bomb proof, with loads of experience and could come on for that reappearance. But certainly come the end of the season I’d be disappointed if B and T don’t turn out to be better than AVD.

    Then again, I do think the Derby is between the three. Telecaster is a beautiful racehorse, negative is will such a big horse act at Epsom? Action is imo better than the similarly built Saxon Warrior’s, so am optimistic. Given his conformation and lack of experience could make another giant step of improvement if that inexperience doesn’t count against him in the atmosphere of Derby Day.

    Am going to have to risk Broome and Telecaster shortening though. Lost enough on TDH and Q to wait for the day of race or at least NRNB before backing the other two. If Coolmore decide to run Sir Dragonet it is possible AVD will be re-routed too. LOL. :wacko:

    value is everything
    #1439917
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    AVD now taken out of most bookmakers lists. :whistle:

    value is everything
    #1439923

    Frenchy15
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    Is he? No?

    #1439942

    moehat
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    Just had a quick look at the betting. Not many horses in it and, of those that are 2 of them have to be supplemented. Are there less than usual? Was going to have a small ew on Bangkok; how bitter sweet it would be should he win.

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