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Cracksman is very short on experience and todays racs will be a real eye opener for him but would you still think the same way if he wins today and then subsequently turns up next time in the Dante?
Don’t forget Gosden had So Mi Dar win this race last year and then she went on to win the Musidora and so became a leading fancy for the Oaks before injury ruled her out.
Both Tartini and Youmkin are desperately weak in today’s Epsom Trial betting. Tartini is out to 13/2 and Youmkin 12/1.
Permian has been supported but I don’t back Mark Johnston horses. The yard have zero rhyme and reason as to when they will run will and when they will flop completely.
I think it would be disappointing to see a third placed horse from a Bath handicap winning this race but it is entirely possible some of these will not have progressed much over the winter. Permian ran well conceding a lot of weight last time and he only went down by a head and a short head in third.
Permian is rated 101 and So Mi Dar was RPR rated 103 when winning this last year. She was much less exposed however and emerged from the race rated 112. Would Permian be likely to register that amount of improvement today?
Permian was 3rd to Coronet last season and Gosden has a line through her to his two colts.
It’s a tricky little race but I expect Cracksman to take a typical Gosden style leap forward from 2yo to 3yo. With the market weakness in the other two once raced colts I am expecting that Cracksman will run out a good winner today. Most years you would say that if a horse prominent in the Derby betting can’t beat a Bath Handicap horse it will mean they have no chance in the Derby. Nothing is guaranteed though. Gosden revealed earlier this week that Guineas entry Utmost had not had a good winter and that they were easing right off on him after his disappointing effort in the Newcastle trial.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well Dettori did his best to get him beat by letting a race fit rival get first run – based on that you would think 10F is the minimum he wants
Well Dettori did his best to get him beat by letting a race fit rival get first run – based on that you would think 10F is the minimum he wants
I did say before the race that Cracksman needs a good, long, steady run to getting going but Frankie rode him as if he was on Golden Horn or Dancing Brave. It was a scramble in the finish and I think Cracksman needs another race before the Derby, if only to let Frankie get some sort of half clue about the type of horse he is and that they can’t all be sharp turn of foot horses.
A win is a win but on the face of that today you would be manning the lifeboats. I am sure there is better to come from this horse.
Tartini and Youmkin were disappointing. I have never seen Tartini as a Derby horse myself and that looked to be confirmed today. Younkin didn’t seem to last home. Both were very weak this morning and, although they did find some support eventually, the general feeling was negative for them since the betting opened.
Cracksman needs a big leap forward from this. He will need to find a stone between now and Epsom but in a year of few real candidates thus far, at least he has come forward from last year and handled the track, finishing the race off well.
Scrambling home like that obviously meant his odds didn’t change much. 12/1 is the best odds and who else? Stan James are shortest on 8/1. Good old Stan and James, the tightest two bas***ds in Bookmaking history
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gosden said most likely to take in another trial either Chester (which I think is a bad idea for a big long striding horse like him) or York – they may have to consider making their own running in the future unless Gosden has left plenty to work on and is expecting him to come on a lot for the race.
It is to his credit that he was still able to run the second down in a race run 5 sec slower than standard and I think he would have learned a great deal on just his second run – interesting to note that Gosden ‘convinced the owner’ to stump up the supplementary fee (£20k) for the Derby and now he has won a win and you are in race anyway.
He has negotiated his first step satisfactorily but you can be sure that he will strip fitter and a lot wiser for his next run.
Was workmanlike which is being kind but has a huge stride and when he got rolling looked formidable in the closing stages.
extra two furlongs is what he needs although what you can really say from that race is that the derby is still completely wide open.
I thought that was fairly encouraging given the circumstances. Cracksman clearly doesn’t have a blistering turn of foot, so the pedestrian pace they went did not benefit him at all. I can only see significant improvement to come with another run under his belt and hopefully a considerable amount learned by his jockey.
I thought Tartini ran ok considering the distance was short of what Gosden said was ideal and they went no pace with him at the back end of it. He finish the race well enough to suggest he handled the course and they don’t go slow in Derby’s which will bring his stamina into play although it’s fair to say he lacks any kind of tactical pace. Cracksman is the better of the two but I’d still like to see Tartini line up in the Derby.
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I thought Tartini ran ok considering the distance was short of what Gosden said was ideal and they went no pace with him at the back end of it. He finish the race well enough to suggest he handled the course and they don’t go slow in Derby’s which will bring his stamina into play although it’s fair to say he lacks any kind of tactical pace. Cracksman is the better of the two but I’d still like to see Tartini line up in the Derby.
I can’t see it Nathan. Tartini needed to win today to get a spot in the Derby itself. I would say there is zero chance they would pay £85,000 to supplement him now.
Some firms have Tartini 16/1 for the Derby. That’s ridiculous in my opinion. I would think they will lower his sights now.
I wouldn’t rule Cracksman out too readily. O’Brien’s US Army Ranger scrambled home getting weight in a dodgy looking Chester Vase last season and still went off 7/2 Fav for the Derby. Sir John Lavery won an awful looking maiden on a ploughed field last year, yet sits the same odds as Cracksman just because he is trained by O’Brien. Oh, go on, I’ve talked myself into another bet on Cracksman.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After watching the race again a couple of times i would of been happy if he finished second to be honest.I think he will improve big style from that run and looks made for the Derby trip.
If there is one better only time will tell
Positives and negatives from Cracksman today.
On the plus side, the intent was there – they’re setting him up for a tilt at the Derby because he’s showing that sort of ability at home. Certainly looks like he’ll have no trouble staying the trip either.
Negatives: Gosden clearly felt the horse needed to get some Epsom experience and you can see why. Long-striding, lacking coordination and all over the place on the camber, he’ll need to learn some fast lessons from this to cope with the Derby itself.
After watching the race again a couple of times i would of been happy if he finished second to be honest.I think he will improve big style from that run and looks made for the Derby trip.
If there is one better only time will tell
I wouldn’t have been happy if he had finished 2nd as would have been skint if he had lost
Interview with Dettori and he said he hadled the course with no problems and if you watch his Newmarket race he handled the dip fine as well, I think he just has an unusally exaggerated action that takes your eye – I don’t think any horse runs arrow straight at Epsom but it didn’t appear to me that he had any problems.
He also went on to say that he is very laid back, which is a departure for a Frankel but that will help him in the long run and I think there will be a big improvement with his next run
If Gosden has a derby horse i think it be CRACKSMAN i do Gord.
Good luck with Tartini mate but more leger for me
Good bit of foresight there again Darren.I will be pleasantly surprised if Gosden supplements Tartini now but he didn’t disgrace himself..With Monarchs Glen down to run in another Derby trial on Friday I can see him having more chance of being supplemented than mine.I certainly cant fault Cracksmans performance today even with his unusual stride.
http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20170426/2681827/16062501
The link above brings the Derby Trial up.
Watching it again, Cracksman is quite slowly into stride but he soon has a good position. He does not seem to have a problem holding his position on the rail and corners OK. Just as Frankie looks to peel out from behind to get a run, Permian arrives on the scene and blocks Frankie’s passage (so to speak
)Frankie has to wait and then move wider to start his run again. I actually felt at that stage that Cracksman may score a shade cosily but approaching the furlong pole he seems to lose momentum briefly, I don’t know if he was unbalanced for a stride or two, or if it was just inexperience but, credit to him, he knuckled down and got up at the line.
Gosden has indicated that Chester or York will be next, depending how he comes out of this race.
Looking back at Golden Horn in his Derby year, he reappeared in the Fielden but was 50/1 after that race to win Dante and Derby. It was not until he blew Jack Hobbs away in the Dante, that everyone started believing he could win the Derby.
I see an uninspiring bunch sitting in that Derby market. The old saying is that, “A bird in the hand is worth two in Kate Bush” and there are only two firms (Ladbrokes and Coral) offering 12/1 on Cracksman now. It is all well not being impressed by Cracksman but where is the solid alternative?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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