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Totally agree the more experienced horses tend to be overlooked in a race like this as the media tends to get stuck into the hype horses and the mug punters (like myself) lap it up.
Youmkin is drifting like the Kontiki 10/1 and 11/1 in a place.
The value looks like it lay with Cracksman at 6/4 early. He’s shaping up as if his stablemate has it all to do to beat him.
I may yet waste a couple of quid each way on Youmkin but the drift is off putting to say the least.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Tartini was 25/1 on debut the fav was Gosden’s other runner Azam who had previously lost to Eminent by just over 4 lengths. Tartini out at Nottingham that day for the experience beat up Azam over 7 lengths with a nice time on the clock. My spy’s tell me Tartini has improved hand over fist as a physical specimen over the winter. For the Derby I’m on at 25’s and took 40’s and 38’s last night on betfair for a couple quid each. He’ll be 10’s tops after he beats his stablemate tomorrow in the Derby trial although Stan James will go much shorter……
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Wouldn’t surprise me if Tartini won, very well related
You couldn’t possibly argue that Cracksman is value at odds on although I reckon he’ll win anyway
From my experience you just can’t win backing shorties at horses racing in the long run, it’s just too difficult. I backed Melon today and when the second fav practically refused I was even more confident, and even that lost.
So a lump on Cracksman it is
Not a secret agent as such but someone who knows someone who is a friend of the Father who’s daughter is engaged to a lad who is best friends with one of the work riders or something like that. Gosden has played down Tartini’s chances for tomorrow saying he’d need a thunderstorm and is saying he’ll be a mile and a half plus horse and views him as a Leger type. The 10f tomorrow could be on the short side in terms of distance but we’ll know more tomorrow.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Didn’t Gosden play down the chances of Dabah the other day?
I don’t believe anything any of these people say.
Yes, trouble is we’ve only seen Tartini the once whilst Gosden is with him day in, day out.
Tartini wouldn’t be running at Epsom tomorrow or have a Dante entry if Gosden didn’t think he had any chance of being a Derby horse. Tomorrow like a lot of early season races is awkward as we don’t know who works well at home and turns up sharp or who needs the race to come on for it better.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Well Cracksman is a rank bad price if you’re being entirely objective.
Although I have a feeling he’ll justify the hype in any case.
Not a secret agent as such but someone who knows someone who is a friend of the Father who’s daughter is engaged to a lad who is best friends with one of the work riders or something like that. Gosden has played down Tartini’s chances for tomorrow saying he’d need a thunderstorm and is saying he’ll be a mile and a half plus horse and views him as a Leger type. The 10f tomorrow could be on the short side in terms of distance but we’ll know more tomorrow.
I just can’t shake the fact that Tartini was so hard ridden from 3F out at Nottingham. It was like watching Kenneth Williams on top of a Teenage Tunisian Lad, during one of his holiday breaks from the Carry On films. Luckily for UK viewers Carry On Rogering was never released.
You can watch the two maidens here:-
Tartini http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20161026/2639291/15762501
In association with Under Pressure (David Bowie and Queen)
Youmkin http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20161026/2639268/15762527
In association with Nice And Sleazy (The Stranglers)
Very contrasting wins and the Tartini race was a lot faster.
Youmkin seems to have no friends in the betting though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I won’t be backing Cracksman today as my ante-post bet gives me enough interest and he’s a terrible price. However, and I know this is not something to pay too much heed to, but Jamie Spencer said the below in his 32Red blog:
I think we could all be playing for places if the vibes surrounding John Gosden’s Cracksman are correct, as he looked very good when winning at Newmarket last autumn. You do hear very good things about him.
Fingers crossed he’s the real deal.
Have backed Cracksman in the race today at 4/6, against my better judgement
hope I don’t jinx him.
Didn’t Gosden play down the chances of Dabah the other day?
I don’t believe anything any of these people say.
His filly was a maiden facing several Group winners and an exciting Andre Fabre filly. He could not have known that Brave Anna, Roly Poly, and Sea Of Grace were going to perform so poorly and that Pamplemousse was never really going to be a factor, out the back most of the way after making all previously. Gosden was talking about a filly rated 81, who needed to improve about two stones to be competitive if the best fillies ran close to their form.
It was impossible to be confident in those circumstances. Even if you feel your horse is improving, you can’t tell how the proven group horses are performing in other stables. The trainer never puts them out 100% on seasonal debut either. He always leaves room for improvement in the big race and not leave it in the trial race instead.
Excellent and early information was provided this week by Gosden regarding the fillies’ targets and that is a refreshing contrast to the stables who hum and haw right up to the race itself.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have backed Cracksman at 14/1.
In a Derby year where very little inspired in the usual races for Epsom clues it seemed likely a horse with 1 or 2 runs would improve and come to the fore this season. The Racing Post Trophy didn’t inspire me last year. I don’t believe Rivet will get the trip and I am not a big fan of his sire Fastnet Rock.
Akihiro was my first proper bet on this race but my heart sank with him last time. I would not even be confident of him running now to be honest.
I marked Cracksman’s maiden down as one to watch, not just for him but also runner up Wild Tempest. My one concern was if Epsom would suit Cracksman, as he looked like a colt who lengthens, rather than quickens. He looks sure to be a good horse this season but I had reservations about tactical speed in the Derby and he looked a horse who takes a couple of furlongs to really reach top gear.
The vibes are good though and the stable have had an excellent start, particularly with the fillies. The yard looks as potent as any this season, even allowing for O’Brien’s juggernaut.
I reckon Cracksman can be the new Derby favourite this evening and rather than lump at short odds today, I felt a bet at 14/1 was in order. This will be my last wager on the race, win or lose today. Two proper bets and a trickle of £1 wins at 50/1, 40/1 and 33/1 will suffice for me.
Cracksman and Robbin’ the bookies is the aim
Cracksman 14/1 (new Derby fav tonight?)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Its interesting how times change and ideas have to be re-examined, perhaps adapted or maybe even totally thrown out.
An example today is John Gosden’s decision to run both Cracksman & Tartini in today’s Derby trial at Epsom.In previous years I would simply have dismissed both horses as potential Derby winners on the basis that the trainer, by running them in the Epsom trial, didn’t really rate them and if the man in charge of their training didn’t rate them then the chances of them being any good was slim.
The reason I would have came to this conclusion, and it has been a modestly profitable view to take for 30 years, is that Epsom is a hugely idiosyncratic track and on firm ground perhaps even a slight danger to the wellbeing of a young and growing 3yo colt. The Derby is the Derby and the rewards of victory far outweigh the risks of running uphill, downhill and across an adverse camber for a mile and half in June. However, any trainer that subjected a colt to two trips to the Surrey switchback really didn’t have any great regard (as a stallion prospect or potential big prize money earner) for the colt in question.
Therefore previously, and in my mind, a run in the Epsom trial in April was an automatic sign that the trainer had a low opinion of the colt and could be safely ruled out for Epsom in June. He didn’t think he was all that great if he subjected him to two runs round that track. This has proven to be a reasonable assumption previously with no winner doubling up or even going anywhere close to the double.However, when a trainer as talented, bright and respected as Gosden acts in opposition to this (to my eye) sensible convention then I have to pay heed and ask…what the hell is he doing that for?
Gosden has sent two colts priced at 20/1 or less (one is 12/1 3rd favourite currently) to a modestly endowed conditions race which has proved extremely moderate trial despite being over the course. York, Newmarket, Chester all appear better locations for ‘trials’ than Epsom.I can think of two reasons, one somewhat stronger than the other. Firstly and less likely, watering at the Derby meeting means the course can no longer be a danger to horses in the way it once was (e.g. Pennekamp in 1995). Secondly John Gosden has used the ‘breakfast with the stars’ Epsom event as a final prep/blowout for some horses who did subsequently win at Epsom and in addition other trainers have also used BWTS successfully also. Pour Moi comes to mind.
Despite the inner rail being dolled off and BWTS participants coming down the centre of the straight, JG has seen then come to no harm and has also seen positive benefits in terms of experience. He has then extrapolated this benefit at BWTS to today’s Epsom trial race.It will be interesting to see if this comes to fruition with the acid test coming, of course, on the first Saturday in June and not today.
I appreciate that since the Epsom trial has a low reputation it therefore attracts second class entrants and it is a self fulfilling prophecy that the winners would not double up in the classic. However, it is the reason it has had such a poor calibre of entry and winner that interests me.So I will be putting a line through Cracksman & Tartini for the Derby as to my mind John Gosden has marked my card today. I do of course stand to be corrected in June perhaps.
Cracksman to win today though.
Good luckHe basically came on before the Nell Gwyn and said that he would be happy if it picked up some black type while doing everything to play down it’s chances.
he must have known it had a fantastic chance but preferred to put punters away.
Like I say I don’t trust trainers in general and I certainly don’t trust Gosden.
Will go with my own thoughts from now on.
, maybe it’s a good sign?!
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