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Derby 2017

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  • #1298130
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    Blue Peter won the Epsom Derby Trial and the Derby in 1939 but as of yet he is the only one. However, Debussy beat none other than Midday in the 2009 renewal, Raincoat (2008) followed up his win by finishing 2nd in the Dante to Authorized, Franklins Gardens (2003) doubled up in the Lingfield Derby Trial and although disappointed in the Derby did win a Yorkshire Cup, Storming Home (2001) came 5th in the Derby but backed up to win the Edward VII and the following year’s Champion Stakes, Daliapour (1999) came 2nd to Oath in the Derby, Roland Gardens (1978) backed up to win the Guineas but didn’t get the trip back at Epsom, Oats (1976) came 3rd to Empery in the Derby, Pretendre (1966) was beaten a neck in the Derby when starting favourite and Premonition (1953) won the Irish Derby.

    I think what people forget when downgrading the Epsom Trial is that there is a good 3 week break until York so if you don’t have a Guineas horse (which yes is the best trial for the Derby as Judge says) then why not run in both?

    So Mi Dar won the Epsom Trial and then backed up to win the Musidora only last year.

    I would not be surprised at all should the form from Epsom on Wednesday be represented in the Dante as has happened many times down the years.

    #1298131
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    I think what people forget when downgrading the Epsom Trial is that there is a good 3 week break until York so if you don’t have a Guineas horse (which yes is the best trial for the Derby as Judge says) then why not run in both?

    I would not be surprised at all should the form from Epsom on Wednesday be represented in the Dante as has happened many times down the years.

    Agree with you there Charles, looks an ideal stepping stone. Dante should be a good guide this year to the Derby.

    #1298133
    LD73
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    Running in more than one Derby trial was a much more common trend in years past with Derby winners the likes of Shirley Heights (beaten in Classic Trial & won Dante), Troy (Classic Trial & Predominate wins), Henbit (Classic Trial & Chester Vase wins), Shergar (Classic Trial & Chester Vase wins), Shahrastani (Classic Trial & Dante wins) & Benny The Dip (beaten in Classic Trial & won Dante) to name a few.

    Another notable horse to do this was Old Vic who won the Classic Trial & Chester Vase enroute to Derby wins in the French & Irish versions.

    Guess it has gone out of fashion in more recent times but if you have a horse ready why not give it a go

    #1298136
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    I think the reason it has gone out of fashion was because in years past it was all about the derby but now the sport is more of an international game and there are big prizes to aim for later on, so the thinking must be why take in an extra race.

    Plus they can train them at home so much easier now than they could back then with modern facilities and so on.

    #1298140
    LD73
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    I think the reason it has gone out of fashion was because in years past it was all about the derby but now the sport is more of an international game and there are big prizes to aim for later on, so the thinking must be why take in an extra race.

    Plus they can train them at home so much easier now than they could back then with modern facilities and so on.

    Probably the old school ways being more eclipsed by the new school of thinking – it will be interesting to see whether trial races start becoming a thing of the past once the remaining old school trainers stop training altogether or maybe we will see the trend swing back the other way to more trainers taking in a prep race instead of going straight to a big race. Personally it would all depend on what is right for a particular horse as to what route you take.

    Remember when it was a common thought for several years that Godolphin’s horses wintering in Dubai had a distinct advantage when coming back to the UK to race due to the warm weather bringing them forward quicker than those having to go through the English winter.

    #1298142
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 1976

    From watching Churchill running he looks more of a stamina laden horse than given credit for. He looks like a derby horse to me and the ballydoyle team i think are looking more at 10 and 12 f. Eminent looked head and shoulders above anything in the craven and will be there at the end but if Churchill has trained on I think he will be outstayed. I’d love Churchill to go for the derby as he is quick and the derby needs a winner with a quick turn of foot to get it back in fashion. I think with ballydoyle the always think of what’s best for their stallion future. I hope they let Churchill take his chance at Epsom but if he wins the guineas comfortably it won’t happen. They have two very promising milers in order of the garter and cliffs if moher so let’s see what they do.

    #1298145
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    I hope they let Churchill take his chance at Epsom but if he wins the guineas comfortably it won’t happen.

    That’s a strange statement to make. Ballydoyle have always been about winning the derby. It’s what their operation is based around so would be very odd if they didn’t send their best horse who has already won the guineas to Epsom.

    #1298146
    LD73
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    I don’t see Churchill staying the Derby trip at all, he might get 10F but that is a very big doubt as his dam (Meow) never ran further than 5F and her dam was the top class sprinter Airwave who did manage to win once at a mile but the furthest any of her progeny has ever won over is an extended 9F.

    #1298148
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    If Gosden really feels Cracksman is a Derby horse I would expect him to go to the Dante next, assuming Cracksman wins here of course.

    If Cracksman can’t win the Epsom trial race I would imagine the Epsom Derby will be off the menu anyway.

    888 and Unibet put Cracksman in at 6/4 for the trial, with Tartini 9/2 and Youmkin 4/1. However, Paddy Power are much more bullish about the Frankel colt and have him at 4/5, with Tartini 10/3 and Youmkin generally dismissed by them at 7/1.

    I can’t back Cracksman at odds-on. He could be anything but you could argue that for all three of the market leaders really. Frankie famously got it wrong when getting off Golden Horn to ride Jack Hobbs in the Dante and was lucky to get back on the winner for the Derby itself.

    Looking at Tartini and Youmkin, they ran one after the other at Nottingham at the same trip. Visually Tartini made a lot heavier weather of it. The time for the 1st leg, won by Tartini was a good bit faster and he struggled a bit to stay with them early doors. If you watch him at the 3F pole the jockey is throwing everything at him and it’s the final furlong when he starts getting on top.

    In the second leg they go a more sedate pace and after a slow start Youmkin is soon in touch, travelling easily pretty much all the way. The grey horse looks to try to kick off the slow pace but it doesn’t work out for him and you can soon see he’s vulnerable to Youmkin. The Godophin horse soon asserts and he wins very comfortably. There was no feeling that if they had gone faster he would have struggled. You might argue he would have been more impressive.

    Some winners have come from all three maiden races involving the 1st trio in the betting. You couldn’t push one to the front on the ratings really. It’s a toss up between Tartini and Youmkin in the sense of whether you prefer the faster time but pretty much all out for the final 3F, or whether you take the cosy winner but done in a good bit slower time?

    Based on Paddy Power’s odds, I would think the value is Youmkin at 7/1, with a dead eight runners and 1/5th the odds 1-2-3 places but others will no doubt have their favourite. I would think Youmkin has the action more likely to be suited to Epsom. Tartini looks a bit extravagant and he looked like a galloping track would suit him last time.

    Tartini ran in a hood last time but goes without it and Youmkin ran unaided last time but has cheekpieces on this time. Perhaps someone has theories on the changes of headgear?

    It should be a very informative race and I’m looking forward to it.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1298151
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    I don’t see Churchill staying the Derby trip at all, he might get 10F but that is a very big doubt as his dam (Meow) never ran further than 5F and her dam was the top class sprinter Airwave who did manage to win once at a mile but the furthest any of her progeny has ever won over is an extended 9F.

    Galileo has often had horses staying further than might have been expected going by the dam side. For example Cape Blanco who won the Dante and Irish derby was by Laurel delight who was an out and out sprinter.

    So yes, he might be a doubtful stayer but I wouldn’t look at just one side of the pedigree.

    #1298174
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 1976

    I hope they let Churchill take his chance at Epsom but if he wins the guineas comfortably it won’t happen.

    That’s a strange statement to make. Ballydoyle have always been about winning the derby. It’s what their operation is based around so would be very odd if they didn’t send their best horse who has already won the guineas to Epsom.

    [/quite]

    They didn’t send gleneagles as they looked to look after his stud value. Winning the derby doesn’t carry the kudos in the breeding world it used to. International breeders are more interested in 6-10 furlong champions.

    #1298175
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    I hope they let Churchill take his chance at Epsom but if he wins the guineas comfortably it won’t happen.

    That’s a strange statement to make. Ballydoyle have always been about winning the derby. It’s what their operation is based around so would be very odd if they didn’t send their best horse who has already won the guineas to Epsom.

    [/quite]

    They didn’t send gleneagles as they looked to look after his stud value. Winning the derby doesn’t carry the kudos in the breeding world it used to. International breeders are more interested in 6-10 furlong champions.

    I was surprised they didn’t send Gleneagles, because the ones they did send looked as slow as Tug Boats going into the Derby and they did nothing to change that impression in the race itself. At least Gleneagles would have had the speed to give it a go but they sent the barges instead and rather than blinkers, they would have needed sails fitted to get involved.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1298178
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 1976

    Coolmore are all about speed into their pedigrees hence the purchase of easton angel and huge promotion of war front. They will hope that one of Australia,gleneagles or declaration of war will provide a derby winner down the line. If I was to plump for the most likely it would be Australia.

    #1298184
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    Keep an eye on those Camelot’s also Mickey ;-)

    #1298185
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 1976

    Camelot I think will get middle distance horses. He was such a gorgeous looking horse and I would love him to be a top class sire.

    #1298192
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    Interesting test for Cracksman tomorrow. Up against his stablemate Tartini who judging by his sole win at Nottingham looks a real stayer and from the same family as Flying officer and Lucarno so likely to make up into a leger horse in time.

    Think Youmkin might also represent a bit of value.

    #1298203
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    I wouldn’t mind if one of the undefeated horses win the Trial tomorrow as there is some serious potential on show but at the prices and given there’s 8 runners I’ll take a chance with Permian each-way at 8/1. He’s brought very solid form into this season and started off the campaign when only just failing to concede a stone to a promising type at Bath. He has the experience which the unexposed colts are lacking and although he may find one too good I’d be surprised should he finish out of the frame and could make up into an Edward VII type.

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