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I would be gobsmacked if the “lads” decided to go for the Derby with Churchill. He had a really hard race today and Moore really gave him the kitchen sink treatment to get the job done.
Barney Roy nearly came down coming out of the dip and you would think Epsom is not going to be his course at all.
Chester and York to come, but at the moment i would probably have Cracksman at the head of affairs at the moment.
yes only one 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) and sprinter won it, well done ballydoyle team
yes only one 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) and sprinter won it, well done ballydoyle team
Sprinter? Not sure Galileo’s who win classics are ever sprinters.
I think they’ll send this horse the derby route as they don’t seem to have much else really solid for the race. There’s only one Derby and if he gets outstayed and finishes 3rd they’ll probably learn more about the horse and the breed than if they send him to the St James palace and he wins that.
Permian hosed up in Listed company. It was a funny race with Majoris going off at a suicidal pace before the Johnston colt sluiced past him, staying on strongly to win by more than 4 lengths to boost Cracksman’s form.
Cracksman has been cut across the boards to an average of 8/1 now. If Churchill doesn’t run, he may go off short enough, assuming that he wins his prep race.
Cliffs Of Moher has been a talking horse for the race but who knows and Sir John Lavery looks short enough for a horse who won a race on gutters that hasn’t worked out.
The Derrinstown doesn’t inspire me today but no doubt whatever wins will be cut in.
As ever, Stan James are shamefully shortest on nearly everything in the race.
Stan James Odds compared to (Best Available) are as follows:-
Churchill 5/2 (6/1)
Cracksman 6/1 (10/1)
Eminent 9/1 (12/1)
Sir John Lavery 11/1 (16/1)
Waldgeist 12/1 (16/1)
Rekindling 16/1 (25/1)
Orderofthegarter 12/1 (25/1)
Seven Heavens 25/1 (66/1)Seven Heavens ran over 6F last time ffs. Firms quoting John Gosden’s hard puller and Pavilion winner Blue Point should be ashamed of themselves.
Damn disgrace those prices and Stan James were quoting the gelding Landfall all winter, when geldings are not allowed to run in the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking at Churchill yesterday in the paddock it did strike me how muscular he looked, in his hind quarters
there was real power there but in general looks wise he reminds me of another son of Galileo, Frankel, in terms of his imposing stature. They both look like equine equivalents of heavyweight boxers.
I recall there was a lot of talk in 2011 about whether or not Frankel should go for the derby. A lot of people didn’t think he would get home in a horsebox but I wasn’t so sure. In the end they took the decision not to go but I believe if he had run that year he would have won the race by about 10 lengths given what a desperate renewal it turned into. And this years race is turning into a similarly poor version so wouldn’t at all be surprised if they decided to have a punt at it. Churchill probably not in the frankel league but does he have to be, against this lot?
Staying or not staying is a relative term. Churchill would beat 99 percent of 3 year olds over the derby distance, the question is whether he’d beat the other one percent some of whom might just relish the distance that little bit more.
The people who go on about staying, a lot of them have probably never done any exercise. Try running a mile over that rowley mile at racing pace over these vast open spaces with the uphill finish. If you can stay that the chances are good you’re going to be able to run 1 mile four to a fairly reasonable standard
Sometimes as well with these horses that struggle to put their opposition away at shorter trips, they thrive when put up in distance. Churchill is an out and out galloper really so wouldn’t surprise me if he even got better going up in trip, although like I say the muscular frame would worry me a little.
Performance wise I would say he was closer to a horse like Lammtarra than frankel. Lammtarra kept winning without being particularly impressive, he would just find a way to beat them, and this horse is the same. Oppose him at your peril.
Have a proper look at the bottom half of Churchill’s pedigree. He’s one of the ones you could discard in terms of Epsom Derby breeding. I might be wrong, but I would be incredibly surprised if he evens goes to Epsom.
I agree with pretty much everything Judge has just said from the assumption that Frankel would have won the 2011 Derby to Churchill not having to be a thorough stayer or a superstar to win this year’s.
I remember being told both New Approach and Sea The Stars couldn’t win the Derby after their Guineas performances!
I’m also thinking that Coolmore already have a Guineas/St James’ Palace winning son of Galileo in Gleneagles at stud so why stand a similarly bred horse with all the same credentials when you could stand a Galileo Guineas/Derby winner?
Cracksman will win this!
He’s one of the main contenders given his connections but his form looks rather shoddy in the overall context of his price
Shoddy form or not. I think it’s worth bearing in mind that Permian beat Fielden winner Khalidi by six lengths yesterday. Khalidi has an official rating of 110.
Cracksman’s official rating is only 103 for the moment and that looks light to me. Timeform’s mark of 108P always looked more like it to my eyes. I feel that if Cracksman can improve 10 lbs and then 7 lbs across his next two races, he’s going to be a big player. This could be a renewal where 120 might even win it. Ruler Of The World won it and earned that rating, having come into the race on only 109.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Shoddy? His form and perspective looks excellent of course.
And I don’t care too much for prices, only the win matters!
Shoddy? His form and perspective looks excellent of course.
And I don’t care too much for prices, only the win matters!
You can’t ignore the price surely.
Eminent heads straight for the Derby https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/frankels-flag-bearing-son-eminent-to-bid-for-derby-glory/284680
Wonder if we will get two Frankel’s squaring off in the Dante with Cracksman and Swiss Storm?
Douglas MacArthur won the Derrinstown. You could have thrown a fag paper over the O’Brien colts in the finish. with Insayshable close enough up to confirm the visual impression of three mediocre colts from Ballydoyle.
I can’t see any of these being remotely good enough to win a Derby of any sort. Like the Ballysax before it, the Derrinstown looked short on quality.
Stan James need to lengthen Capri and Yucatan from 14/1 pronto, if they want to take any money on those slow colts.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wonder if we will get two Frankel’s squaring off in the Dante with Cracksman and Swiss Storm?
I think Cracksman would piss that particular face off. Swiss Storm’s old sparring partner City Of Joy scrambled home off 84 in a handicap at Donny last night. That leaves Swiss Storm with a mountain to climb and he’s already missed his seasonal debut. Cracksman would be mega short in that contest I feel.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Andre Fabre’s Plumatic was utterly thumped at odds of 3/5Fav today in the G3 Prix Guiche at Chantilly, so that’s one that we won’t be seeing at Epsom. Apparently highly regarded by his trainer, it makes you wonder how good Waldgeist and Akihiro are?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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