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4 05 Kempton
2 Points Win – STUNT 9/4
1 Point EW – JAC THE SCRAP 33/1Stunt should probably be a shade of odds on to win this race and will be hard to beat, the 9/4 looks very generous.
Jac The Scrap is vastly overpriced, she is bred to be an early 2yo and related to many horses who win on 2yo debut. She has a speedy pedigree and Luke Morris is a significant booking here. Although Tuner hasn’t done well with 2yos in recent years, just 3 winners in last 5 years he will surely go close with this one and should Stunt fail to fire today then Jac can take full advantage. Should be no bigger than 4/1 yet is 33/1.
Turner is 2/15 with 2yo AW novices in last 5 years, 13% strike rate with 2yos at Kempton (1/8) and Luke Morris has a 33% strike rate riding his aw 2yos (1/3) so although Turners overall record is poor in the last 5 years with 2yos, his 2yos in that time period under today’s race conditions record is actually very fair and not bad at all. This looks the right horse and jockey to start his season off with a bang.Thought Jac The Scrap had a nice pedigree for an early season 2 year-old. Trainer obviously puts me off a shade, but would be delighted if he could win. Love the stud his sire (Bobby’s Kitten) stands at.
Hope Alice Haynes could have a first 2 year-old winner as a trainer and for Cotai Glory, but I’m weeks away from betting anything. You are a braver man than I, Captain Robbo.
This is my favourite time of the flat season, the early 2yos. Best races for betting on I think. Should get off to a flyer here. Huge drift on Stunt as well so he will pay even better on BOG. Fools gamble on Thunder Love and I wouldn’t back her with counterfeit.
Good luck with this Thread Cpt.Robbo.
I too enjoy trying to find a few early season 2yo’s and usually start at the Craven Meeting. Sadly this year Newmarket not open for spectators until end of May.
Will certainly be looking in from time to time and hope you manage to pinpoint some useful 2yo’s for next seasons Classics.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Good luck with the thread Robbo. I read some good things about a couple of George Boughey 2-year-olds and the first one won yesterday. He has one called Cashew running tomorrow that’s expected to go well..
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Like the look of the Dark Angel filly Dark Terms running in the 1.40 Newcastle today against Cashew
She’s around 5/2 and trainer won this in 2019.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...P&L = -4 points
Not the best start at Kempton but hopefully a nice winner at Newcastle today. Done this bet on the exchange. With all the early money going on Cashew and Dark Terms it’s offered 3 good prices on 3 horses who have a chance here and means the stake can be mixed up for decent return if successful. Good luck with Cashew Joni Bake and with Dark Terms Tryptych.
1 pnt Win – LIV LUCKY 13.5
1/2 pnt Win – ALASKAN JEWEL 18.0
1/2 pnt Win – PINK STORM 18.0ANADORA is the first horse I would rule out and looks the least likeliest winner here. Trainer can ready them but doesn’t send his best ones here. Ryan has an awful record of just 1 winner from 55 runs with 2yos at Newcastle in the last 5 years. Likely to need further and more time.
MYTILDA has an appealing profile being a January foal and the oldest horse here, should have plenty of speed. Makin has had just 5 2yo winners from 100 runners in the last 5 years though and is taking on trainers who have stronger records with these types and likely to be vulnerable first time up to some of these rivals.
CASHEW must have a chance here. Trainers first 2yo runner of the season hacked up and stable in great form and have said this is showing plenty of speed at home. Priced accordingly and plenty of money about for it. Dangerous but has some valid rivals at much bigger prices so keen to take her on.
DARK TERMS trainer won this race last year and his first 2yo of the season looked sharp and ran well to be placed. Very dangerous trainer in these types of races and respected but the Dark Angel sire offspring record is just 3 wins from 46 Newcastle runs and they are 0/5 over 5f here. Couldn’t rule out but likely to be better for this run.
Wouldn’t be any surprise if either Cashew or Dark Terms won’t this race but both short in the betting and 3 kindly priced rivals today.
LIV LUCKY – Johnston is in decent form and is capable of readying a 2yo to win on debut. Has an entry at Kempton on Monday but they have opted to run here and could fancy their chances with this one. Daughter of Profitable who’s first 2yo runner won nicely the other day for George Boughey. The youngest in the field being an April foal but likely to know her job first time up and be sharp, an April foal has won both UK 2yo races so far this season. Big chance here of making it 2/2 for Profitable as a sire.
ALASKAN JEWEL – Out of Kodiac whos offspring are 2 wins from 6 runners with his 2yo debutants over 5f at Newcastle (Mytilda is also a Kodiac). Trainer has a good record with 2yos and this speedily bred filly is a dangerous horse here who looks vastly overpriced due to some more fashionable yards in opposition. Should be sharp and is an outsider with a clear chance today who cannot be ruled out.
PINK STORM is the most expensive horse in the line up and will probably turn out to be the best of these in time. Burke can ready a 2yo first time out but has stated this is a good horse but he has left his 2yos with plenty to work on. Jockey booking doesn’t inspire a big run today and may well need this run but could be an Ascot horse and as such couldn’t be fully ruled out. Class may get her home in front and at the odds is worth keeping on side.
A competitive looking race of debutants but must be in with a decent shout of being onboard the winner.
P&L = -6 points
Went for the 3 over priced horses and got 2nd, 3rd and 4th, all 3 saw off the front 2 in the betting but the 2yo I liked the least comes to chin me on the line. How annoying.
Always the way Robbo but it’s early days. I’m going to wait just a wee bit longer before I bet on some of these 2yo’s. Dark Terms who I liked came in plum last but I thought one that you chose Pink Storm ran a very nice race after the penny dropped and ran on nicely at the finish..first one for the notebook this year.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...P&L = -6 points
1 20 Musselburgh –
3 Point Win – LITTLETIMIHOULIHAN 9/2 (bet365)
Bet365 appear to have lost their mind offering 9/2 on this flying machine as such a max win bet is the only possible conclusion here.
THE GATEKEEPER- Johnston’s only 2yo so far this season ran ok in 4th without ever looking like winning. Trainers strong in 2yo novice races and this is his first 2yo colt of the season. Will need further in time and looks vulnerable today. Ben Curtis has never ridden a 2yo winner for Johnston and is 0/22 all time. Negative jockey booking and likely needs further and more time.
His sire was unplaced on 2yo debut and his dam came last on 2yo debut.KHUNAN – Fahey does have 2yo winners at Musselburgh and does well here but does much better in maidens than novice races with his 2yos.
Fahey only 2yo runner was unplaced this season.
Interesting on breeding out of a mare who won 3 times over 5f but the sire has a poor record with 2yos over 5f and is 0/9 with 2yos first time out over 5f.
Not impossible that he could go well but likely to improve for this opening run and likely to need this.ATOMIC FORCE – Ryan has had a winner and a second from his 2yo runners this season. His 2yos are clearly forward and running well and he has 2yo winners here.
Dangerous to rule out and a big player here.
His sire came last on 2yo debut and his dam was unplaced on 2yo debut and didn’t win til her 3yo season over 1m 2 1/2f. Bearing this in mind he may be in need of his first run and could be vulnerable though can’t be ruled out of winning with his yard going so well.LITTLETIMIHOULIHAN – Stands out in this field. He is bred for speed. His sire won by 8 lengths on 2yo debut over 5.5f and his dam won by 3 lengths on 2yo debut over 5f. He is the oldest 2yo in this field and the trainer has done really well with his 2yos since relocating to England. His only 2yo this season ran a cracker at 25/1 and was beaten a head yesterday in the pillars of the post which offers encouragement for where his 2yo string are this season and he could be in for a good season with his 2yos this year.
The sire Due Dilligence has a good record with producing first time out 2yo winners and this horse looks to be the one true sprinter in this field.
Stables unfashionable but that won’t stop him from winning. He could take some stopping here and a huge chance. Should be favourite.
He travels like Greased lightning and is very very frightening. Catch him if you can.3 10 Cork
1.5 Point Win – JARVIS 3/1
0.5 Point Win – DREAM OASIS 12/1Jarvis should take the world of beating here, January foal and oldest in the field. Trainer 30% strike rate with 2yos at Cork and in form.
Dangers look thin on the ground but the Harrington filly looks worth keeping on side at 12/1 and appears the biggest danger to Jarvis.Sky now offering 15/2 on Littletimyhoulihan. This company will be out of business by July if they keep making monumental mistakes such as this. Mind blowing price on the true favourite. How dare they call my Maximum bet a 15/2 shot.
P&L = -11 Points
1 36 Southwell
3 Point WIN – GENERAL PANIC 9/2
Got to get in early with this one, price should have collapsed by race time. The only question to be asked here is ‘How far?’. Top trainer is back in UK and will almost certainly be returning with a winner here.
Phenomenal record of 3 wins from 5 runs with 2yo novices on the AW, 8 wins from 22 2yo runners at Southwell. James Doyle’s only ride of the day.
When you are a highly successful international trainer then you pull out a winner on your return to the homeland as standard.
The sires offspring has a phenomenal record on fibresand and no mistakes have been made here. Wins pulling a train.Unbelievable they are offering 11/2 on general Panic this morning, I should have waited.
Can fully understand the money for the favourite Makalu but can’t believe that the avalanche of cash hasn’t yet arrived for General Panic. It’s surely unquestionable that the monumental gamble will start sometime soon. Makalu will end up crying like a girl as General Panic kicks fibresand in his face all the way up the home straight.
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