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13/2 now General Panic. The betting world has lost its mind 😦. This is the equivalent of offering 100/1 on Frankel in the 2000 Guineas.
A betting market this bizarre has not been witnessed for over 10 years. Last time I saw a market this wrong was Deauville in 2010 for the Jacques La Maroi group 1. The market and all pundits classed it as a match between Goldikova and Paco Boy and completely ignored the obvious winner in Makfi allowing him to return at 7/1. Very similar market here with everybody going mad about Makalu and Robbie Roger whilst ignoring the obvious winner General Panic and letting him drift. What happened in France will happen at Southwell of that there should be little doubt, history repeating.
Topped up on General Panic at an outrageous 13.0 on betfair though won’t use this for any P&L. Should be able to lay stake back at half that price before the off to give a nice top up to my original bet at 9/2.
This is the King of 2yos long awaited and glorious return to the uk. A Jedi master level trainer of the 2yo. This is the undisputed king of the Fibresand 2yo in action and they offer 13.0 on a horse who is bred to be the Sultan Of Southwell.
Yes Kevin Ryan’s 2yos have made a good start to the season with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd from 3 runners but his record in 2yo aw novice races is a pathetic 2 wins from 59 runners up against a Master of the 2yo novice race with his 60% strike rate in 2yo aw novice races (44% strike rate in turf & aw novice 2yos).
The master has won over 357 million in prize money training in Hong Kong.
He has waited and waited til he could purchase the perfect yard, Nosedas old training yard in Newmarket located in the ‘Mayfair’ region of Newmarket. Almost all of his horses are 2yos and he is coming to do business. All 2yos meticulously picked and obtained for this brilliantly ran operation that will take all before him this year as he becomes known as the king of the 2yos.When you have the luxury training facility, you have the 2yo fire power and the know how and expert placement that this man has then you unleash a definite winner for your first runner back in the UK without any question. Absolutely no chance this man is unleashing a 2yo that he ‘hopes’ may go well today. He is making a statement of intent today and Kevin Ryan and George Boughey can do mothing whatsoever about it. This is Pegasus who will be flying out of the 1 stall today and will win by over 5 lengths here. This is an unstoppable force we are about to witness.
That’s what a master of the 2yo will do to you.
Doyler didn’t even need to shake the reins. Was only ever one outcome here and that was that General Panic was going to win very easily.
Have to proof the bet as being 9/2 even though I made plenty more on the outrageous exchange prices.
This will remain one of the worlds great mysteries how this horse was allowed to return at odds of 11/1 here? My mind is blown. 9/2 was an absolute gift last night without BOG. 11/1 sp is unexplainable. The Great Pyramids, Aliens all incredible mysteries but General Panic returning at 11/1 will never ever be topped. We witnessed history today.Should have been a clean profit of 33 Points had I have waited for BOG but alas it’s only 13.5 points on the board.
Regardless the cash cow that is the early season 2yo races is up and running and in profit. Not even warmed up yet.
P&L = + 2.5 points
A master dealt with a couple of punks in the form of Kevin Ryan and George Boughey today but come Royal Ascot both Wesley Ward and Charlie Appleby will be made to bow before the master of the 2yo.
P&L = +2.5 Points
1 40 Kempton
3 Point Win – MENG TIAN 4/1 (Bet365)
Straight in with Monday’s bet. 4/1 what a price. It’s the maestro trainer of 2yos again back for round 2. S P C WOOD is far too good.
It would appear the odds compilers have no idea who they are dealing with in reference to this trainer. Until they wake up then we take full advantage.Major boost and P&L correction. I thought all firms didn’t do BOG til 9am on the morning. Checked my bet365 and they have paid me BOG 11/1 even though I did the bet last night. Never realised Bet365 did that but delighted to have found out. As such the amended P&L is:
P&L = + 22 Points
An extra 19.5 points profit thanks to the surprise BOG.
Bet365 have already cut MENG The Magnificent in to 9/4 fav. The 4/1 was very much appreciated.
A high profile trainer will always want to return With a winner. A grand master level 2yo don trainer will make sure he returns with at least 3 in a row.Super S Woods 4 winners from 6 runners in 2yo aw novice races all time uk.
Will the king of the 2yo make it 2 wins from 2 runners. I think deep down you already all know the answer to this. Going to absolutely bolt up. Fingers crossed there are no non runners.
GRAFTONAT was last in Brocklesby. Around 20/1 outsider for this but you could add a zero and make it 200/1 and I still wouldn’t want to know.
MIRIQUE is another who makes zero interest regardless of what price is on offer and won’t be involved.
NOBLE ALERT – Amy Murphys only 2yo runner this season ran well and placed but not really a stable associated with 2yos and is just 4 wins from 74 runs with aw 2yos over the last 5 years and has just a 5% strike rate in novice races on the aw. Kempton is her best 2yo aw track with 2-24 here but this makes no interest at single figure odds.
WILD MOUNTAIN makes no appeal at around 3/1, not impossible he could win although unlikely but would want to see double figure odds before considering a bet on him.
DUKE BOX – Kempton is Hannons worst aw track for 2yos and he is just 8% strike rate here in the last 5 years. Sean Levey riding doesn’t inspire any confidence in him. Will need further and more times and looks one for nurseries later in the season.
MYTHICAL STAR looks a possible winner, Spencer booked and could go well. Speedy pedigree. If Meng the magnificent wasn’t in this race then I would make this favourite. Unfortunately for Hughes and Spence Meng is in this race.
MENG TIAM – Polytrack surface will be perfect for him. Related to numerous 2yo sprint winners. Will be fast and will know his job. Outside draw makes no major difference in this 7 runner field and the master trainer Will have him knowing his job first time up and he should be fast out the gates. Doyle on board and his trainer has a 66% strike rate (4/6) in aw 2yo novice races. This is Woods first ever runner at Kempton and he will surely be expecting to be making it a winning debut at the track.
Hard to see anything troubling him here .With Mythical Star a non runner it looks like a match race between Meng Tiam and Wild Mountain. Paul Cole won this race in 2017 with a debutant and although he didn’t have a great season last year with his 2yos this February foal should be expected to beat the rest of the field today so any slacking from Meng and Wild Mountain could win but there is not expected to be any slacking.
P&L = +19 Points
Shock result today as Meng Tiam got turned over.
2 40 Bath
1 Point EW – DUE A RUM 15/2 (Bet365)
Plenty of 8/1 available but took bet365s 15/2 as they are offering bog.
Was expecting this to be favourite so surprised at the market.
Channon trained Bungleinthejungle to win on his 2nd start as a 2yo and tries to repeat the feat with his son. He does well at the track and this is a possible winner but looks far too short in the betting.
Wonderful World was 2nd in the Brocklesby and Muskateer Three was 5th. The winner of the Brocklesby was trained by Eve Johnston Houghton who trains DUE A RUM so she should have a good idea what is required to beat these two horses. She has a good record with her 2yos at Bath and the son of Due Dilligence is well drawn in 8.
Navello would hold some sort of chance but is too short in the betting. Great looking price on Due A Rum as I would have expected him to be around 9/4 to 3/1 here.Well done Robbo with General Panic
11/1 you were shouting it from the rooftops on here and rightly so.
You kept the faith when others were doubting and he repaid you, that must feel oh so good.
Brilliant.👑
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Really looking forward to watching Due A Rum. The ground riding fast at Bath is really going to suit him. His father Due Dilligence loved a fast surface as did his mother Rum Swizzle whos record at Bath was 3 runs -1-2-2.
The Brocklesby form has already been ripped to shreds, all 3 horses who ran in the Brocklesby were unplaced next time in lower grade races. Eve Houghton already has beaten the favourite and the 3rd favourite she will surely fancy her chances to beat them again with her fast ground loving flying machine.
All Edward Greatrex needs to do is hold on here and he will surely win.P&L = +17
1 10 Newbury
1 Point Win – GISBURN 5/1 (bet365 bog)
1 Point Win – SO SMART 15/2 (bet365 bog)Hannon runs 2 here and as the race is sponsored by Highclere Racing then many people will back Tyson who is owned by Highclere and he will be gambled into favourite (currently 2nd fav).
GISBURN looks the likelier winner of the Hannon pair and he will probably drift thanks to Tyson being in the field. He is the oldest in the field and related to winning sprinters. Must go close.SO SMART also looks dangerous and is a fair price at 15/2.
Tyson is probably the main danger to my bet but will be over bet and will return underpriced. The Charlie Hills horse looks the other one to watch out for and is likely to know his job first time up.
5 10 Bath
1 1/2 Points EW – BERKSHIRE PHOENIX 13/2 (Bet365 Bog)
Balding should get his first 2yo winner of the season up here. Bungleinthejungle Colt should enjoy this race. William Carver takes off 5lb and has won on 2 of the 5 turf 2yos Balding has put him on.
P&&
P&L = +15Correct with both Hannon horses, that Tyson would be heavily backed which he was after being 4/1 when I posted last night but the bigger priced Hannon runner was a more likely winner. GISBURN comfortably beat Tyson but alas it wasn’t enough.
Looking good for the Bath maximum bet as he has come in from 13/2 last night to around 6/4 now. Small rule 4 in there but absolute avalanche of cash has gone done on him.
P&L = +12
What a dirty day yesterday.
3 x 2yo races today and I’m so confident of winners that if I don’t find at least one winner here I will get the Covid Vaccine (obviously I won’t actually be that mental but confidence is in the sky). Thankfully I have some absolute ravers lined up and won’t be offering my services to the worldwide population reduction.11:15 Thirsk
2 Points Win – CLAIM TO FAME 4/1
4 55 Brighton
2 Points Win – DUSKY PRINCE 3/1
4 40 Nottingham
2 Points Win – GROOM 7/2
11/1 you were shouting it from the rooftops on here and rightly so.
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