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In truth this isn’t a bad tipping thread – perhaps we could start selling the service to Dean McKeown.
DELETED – AFTERTIME
Capricorn Run drifted to 14s for a place and then came out of the stalls 10L after the others had gone
I doubt that chronology is quite correct, though that’s how it would have seemed to most viewers at home. The awful truth is more like the following.
Order of Events
FIRSTLY Capricorn Run comes out of the stalls 10 lengths after the others have gone.
THEN the on-track boys bet into the pre-race betfair market, where bets aren’t subject to any in-running delay, laying Capricorn Run at all rates and giving BF a 22.5% piece of the action for effectively looking the other way and suspending late again
THEN Viewers of SIS see the pictures you will be watching on ATR, paying circa 7k a year to forgo the ATR time delay
THEN BF suspends the market
THEN After the artificial delay has been added to the ATR pics, you at home see that Capricorn Run has started at astronomical odds to place ‘before’ proceeding to do a Hamlet cigar
I was right all along. The race did highlight the clip joint nature of British racing, with various vested interests dipping their bread, just not on the horse I originally suspected.
Capricorn Run misses the break more often than not these days though doesn’t he.
He does indeed, and it’s maddening, as I had him down as marginally the best in of the five that contested the Scoop6 opener over C&D 15 days earlier and re-opposed today. But my goodness, you’ll starve before the day comes that he’s able to make such a pull at the weights tell given how often he throws it away in the stalls nowadays.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
With the mark he’s operating from these days, it’s hard to see how he gets beat the day he finally decides to come out on terms.
Agreed – just name the day, though!
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
BEFORE the race only on this thread lads – keep the aftertime discussions on separate threads, thank you.
Good spot today Glenn.
So, basically,
is it being said that, no matter whether these price moves in question are spotted or not,
the techno "redjackets" on course, together with the inside Exchange suspenders,
have the whole thing sewn up between them?- Total Posts 17716
Look at Tom Tate and Suits Me, fantastic trainer for the punters.
- Total Posts 17716
Bewery Man out to 11/4 from an early show of Evens for Sedgefield’s 12.50.
I was planning to back this, but such a big drift for a Ferdy Murphy horse discouraged me somewhat.
The Betfair legal eagles have been in touch, claiming my post on Capricorn Run was seriously misleading and asking me to put the matter straight. I’m only too happy to oblige.
Capricorn Run apparently drifted in the 10 seconds pre-off as a result of a ‘badly programmed’ bot laying it at all rates up to 12s to place. Whether the bot was ‘badly programmed’ in the sense it was doing things the owner didn’t really intend or ‘badly programmed’ in the sense that it didn’t have the notion of subtlety embedded into its artificial intelligence remains unclear.
In fact many things remain unclear to me about the Betfair prices on this race. Unlike those inside Betfair I don’t even know exactly what prices I got in the race, let alone what other people got. I won’t know the prices I got until midday tomorrow and I fear that my original 20 that I insinuated might be too good to be true on Bazroy will turn out to be exactly that, and the bet will be settled at a price of circa 16 as a result of premium charges.
Why is this? It could be because I backed a few winners last week or backed a few losers 60 weeks ago or the people I have been betting against haven’t been paying enough commission. I couldn’t really say for sure because Betfair don’t provide the tools to verify the Premium Charges they are applying to my account.
And the justification? Apparently the losers are losing too quickly. I’m not sure how getting rid of me is gonna help the Bazroy layers lose any slower. Wouldn’t they have been laying even bigger prices if I wasn’t shoring the price up slightly? I’m a value punter and by definition I’m usually stepping in to fill a vaccum. There was a surplus of layers, or lay money, on this horsea and a dearth of backers. I step in to provide liquidity that is so badly lacking on the back side and yet I’m getting cast as the villain of the peace..
There have also been insinuations that those paying the PC must all be doing something underhand. All I do is take what I consider value prices based on public information. I don’t like this insinutaion and I don’t like being lumped in with insiders, jockeys’ putters on and the likes. You don’t need to cheat to pay these charges, in fact you don’t even need to be an above average punter. For example, just randomly backing a thousand horses at a price of 20 would usually see Premium Charges kick if you get around 57 winners. Even for a pinsticker, this is less than a 5/1 shot. Something to bear in mind if you see a price too good to be true.
Like I say this is all conjecture at the moment. I never know Betfair prices until Wednesday week after I take them these days. I will of course correct things if, like in the song, Wednesday week never happens at all and the 20 I took on Bazroy hasn’t morphed into 16. I’d hate to be the cause of confusion.
Rant Over.
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