- This topic has 103 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
Can we get back to talking about the racing fellas, these on-going ego battles are beyond tedious. Perhaps there should be an unwritten rule where threads aren’t continually being hijacked to settle some “feud”
For what it’s worth although I greatly respect Steve as a tipster, he clearly has a habit of “not suffering fools lightly” which can rub people up the wrong way. Maybe he needs to rein it in a bit. Would be a shame though if he was lost to the site as you can learn a lot from someone like that.
Have taken the plunge and backed Sobetsu. Read something last night where Appelby was saying how wouldn’t it be great if Dubawi could have two group one winners in the same week as it would take him to “another level”. As if he’s somehow he’s a sire that has gone under the radar.
Charlie clearling been reading from the Aiden p.r. manual for hyping up sires
There is no “ego battle”! Where’s a brick wall when you need one? :lol:
It was you Judge who wanted to know Steve’s thoughts.
Thought I was doing you a favour by pointing in the right direction.Now can we please, please, please get back to the horses?
Value Is EverythingThank you for mentioning that Mrs Danvers is runnning tomorrow, Judge!
Just a short question to the Cornwallis Stakes (I know, it’s the Dewhurst thread):
Mrs. Danvers has stall 11 from 11 runners, would this be positve over 5f in Newmarket?
Cheers, HBChurchill‘s form isn’t that much ahead of some of his rivals here, however has undoubted potential; you couldn’t get a better looking individual and is by Galileo. Has a great chance, but the 4 1/4 lengths he had to spare over non-stayer Mehmas flatters him. If Blue Point turns up (doubtful) Churchill will imo be nearer to Evens than 4/6. Godolphin colt beaten at a short price in Middle Park, but winner (who he’d beaten 4 3/4 lengths previously) The Last Lion had the run of the race. Improved (in Gimcrack) since his Goodwood defeat by Mehmas. However, this race may come too soon. South Seas might turn out to be Churchill’s main danger if a softish surface. Backed him at Sandown and did it well, but striked me more for the Racing Post than Dewhurst type and probably needs a test at this trip. I like Rivet as a horse, but although trainer still in reasonable form, Rivet won his last race at a time Haggas was winning everything. Has more potential than Thunder Snow, but only has a head verdict over the Champagne runner-up and latter is double the price. I’ll probably be looking to back Seven Heavens, particularly if a sound surface, shows a long fluent action and reminds me of his sire. Will have a lot more runners to settle in behind than at Ascot and – as long as he does – should improve considerably.
My 100% Book for good-firm ground.
Churchill 51% 20/21, Blue Point 15% 11/2, Seven Heavens 13.25% 13/2, South Seas 10% 9/1, Rivet 6.75% 14/1, Thunder Snow 3.75% 25/1, Lancaster Bomber 0.25% 400/1.Blue Point currently available @ 7/1 and even better Seven Heavens 9/1.
Bookies best price percentage currently over-broke.
Value Is EverythingIt was featured in the article by Keith Melrose that you copied.
But okay, back to Dewhurst:
I wouldn’t bet against Churchhill, and his price is too short for me.“Feeling was mutual, i’d happily have strangled you in the St Leger thread too. ”
So funny.
churchill wins Dewhurst for me but to short
RHDODENDRON at 4/1 in fillies mile she improve on that last run in Moyglare
Steve and I agree on the fillies mile, I can reaally see why he’s backed Spatial for the Guineas and likes both her and Sobetsu for the Oaks. imo One of the two should win tomorrow and have backed both.
Sobetsu was beaten in a maiden by Spatial. Latter hasn’t run since which is a slight worry, but SMS doesn’t run his two year olds that often. By New Approach and dam won the May Hill. Impressive in winning her maiden. Sobetsu by Dubawi, has since improved to win a Newmarket maiden how she liked, going further and further clear in the final furlong. Stamina seems her forte and capable of making her own running (although Hydrangea may well make it). Appleby is in particularly good form at the moment too.
On the face of it both selections have a bit to find on “form”, however, they have masses of potential and the others seem a little exposed and (as it stands) not up to winning an average renewal. One that could yet make the grade is Rhododendron. Little disappointing when two lengths 3rd in Moyglare – 1 3/4 behind Hydrangea. However, am convinced some horses don’t perform in strong winds and there seemed a pace bias favouring prominent runners all day. Hydrangea tried to make all and got beat just a short head; may be flattered. Rhododendron came from further back and better than position. Their stable companion and Evens fav Promise To be True well beaten there and since returned to form at Chantilly at the weekend – 2nd to Wuheida in Group 1 Boussac. Wuheida was the filly that beat Spatial first time out. That said, winner probably improved an awful lot in the interim and form lines between maiden races don’t often work out.
Rich Legacy looked beaten in the May Hill before outstaying/out-fighting the runner-up. imo That form is possibly the best here. Both myself and Steve backed her to win at Donny. Smashing, genuine filly, however, she isn’t that well bred and I’d be disappointed if something else wasn’t capable of improving past her. Trainer thinks she lacks scope to improve too. That said, is fairly priced imo.
Urban Fox is a decent sort, but has had plenty of chances in lesser Group races and failed. Seems exposed.
Fleabiscuit comes from a top trainer, this looks too difficult for even him. Won her maiden well but this is a big step up in one go less than two weeks on from debut.
One I like at a massive price is Easy Winner and was just that on first run in a comparitively fast time for a juvenile. Another Godolphin by Dubawi. Enormously disappointing as favourite in Sweet Solera. However, stable was in the midst of a powerful virus at that time and is back to form in recent weeks. 50/1 with Bet365.
My 100% Book for good-firm:
Sobetsu 2/1, Spacial 7/2, Rhododendron 5/1, Rich Legacy 13/2, Hydrangea 10/1, Easy Victory 28/1, Fleabiscuit 50/1, Urban Fox 100/1.Sobetsu is available @ 5/2, Spacial 9/2 and outsider Easy Victory 50/1.
Value Is EverythingHave taken the plunge and backed Sobetsu. Read something last night where Appelby was saying how wouldn’t it be great if Dubawi could have two group one winners in the same week as it would take him to “another level”. As if he’s somehow he’s a sire that has gone under the radar.
Charlie clearling been reading from the Aiden p.r. manual for hyping up sires
I heard somewhere that Wuheida was the first 2 year old group 1 winner over a mile to be sired by Dubawi. I think Charlie was referencing that 2 in one week would put him into a new league of sire form. Technically, it already has because of Wuheida but another would enhance it.
On to the race, I dislike it when you have two horses up against each other that have met in maiden company with one having already had a run. It was a good 3 and a bit lengths that Spatial beat Sobestsu by, so even a ten length maiden win next time for the Appleby filly isn’t enough to convince me the form will be overturned. I think it will, though and she will likely benefit with it being at Newmarket.
Have taken the plunge and backed Sobetsu. Read something last night where Appelby was saying how wouldn’t it be great if Dubawi could have two group one winners in the same week as it would take him to “another level”. As if he’s somehow he’s a sire that has gone under the radar.
Charlie clearling been reading from the Aiden p.r. manual for hyping up sires
I heard somewhere that Wuheida was the first 2 year old group 1 winner over a mile to be sired by Dubawi. I think Charlie was referencing that 2 in one week would put him into a new league of sire form. Technically, it already has because of Wuheida but another would enhance it.
On to the race, I dislike it when you have two horses up against each other that have met in maiden company with one having already had a run. It was a good 3 and a bit lengths that Spatial beat Sobestsu by, so even a ten length maiden win next time for the Appleby filly isn’t enough to convince me the form will be overturned. I think it will, though and she will likely benefit with it being at Newmarket.
Sorry I’m a bit confused by your comment. You’re not convinced that the form will be overturned, but you think it will?
Ryan Moore’s verdict on the fillies mile:
15:10 Newmarket – Rhododendron
I don’t think you would be in a rush to rule out any of this field, even the maiden winners with plenty to find on form. And certainly Spatial gave me a good feel when winning a maiden on the July course which worked out very well, with the placed horses Unforgetable Filly and Sobetsu, who re-opposes today, winning their maidens by wide margins next time.
Rich Legacy saw this trip out well when winning the May Hill but Aidan’s pair probably just about set the form standard, and there is little between them.
My mount beat Hydrangea a head in a Group 2 at the Curragh, but finished nearly two lengths behind her when that form was turned around in the Moyglare last time, which was quite a messy race. They are both Galileos and should be suited by the step up to a mile, and I just hope that I am on the right one. It’s a pretty competitive race, though, and no result would really surprise me.
Talk about mastering the art of saying nothing. He “Hopes” he is on the right one.
Are we really supposed to believe he knows nothing more than that? That the trainer and him haven’t even had a discussion about who might be the best one of the two?
I think Coolmore like to give the impression that they chuck in these well-bred Galileos and hoped for the best but I would be amazed if there wasn’t a lot of preparation that went into these races
Ryan is saying so little here that I wouldn’t be surprised if his mount ends up winning and winning impressively.
And I’ve backed Sobetsu
Ryan Moore’s verdict on the fillies mile:
15:10 Newmarket – Rhododendron
I don’t think you would be in a rush to rule out any of this field, even the maiden winners with plenty to find on form. And certainly Spatial gave me a good feel when winning a maiden on the July course which worked out very well, with the placed horses Unforgetable Filly and Sobetsu, who re-opposes today, winning their maidens by wide margins next time.Rich Legacy saw this trip out well when winning the May Hill but Aidan’s pair probably just about set the form standard, and there is little between them.
My mount beat Hydrangea a head in a Group 2 at the Curragh, but finished nearly two lengths behind her when that form was turned around in the Moyglare last time, which was quite a messy race. They are both Galileos and should be suited by the step up to a mile, and I just hope that I am on the right one. It’s a pretty competitive race, though, and no result would really surprise me.
Talk about mastering the art of saying nothing. He “Hopes” he is on the right one.
Are we really supposed to believe he knows nothing more than that? That the trainer and him haven’t even had a discussion about who might be the best one of the two?
I think Coolmore like to give the impression that they chuck in these well-bred Galileos and hoped for the best but I would be amazed if there wasn’t a lot of preparation that went into these races
Ryan is saying so little here that I wouldn’t be surprised if his mount ends up winning and winning impressively.
And I’ve backed Sobetsu
You seem to be making the mistake of thinking jockeys and trainers know who is the better stable companion, Judge. Hydrangea always finds a lot under presure, they don’t put horses under that sort of pressure at home… And Hyd was only a head behind Rhod in the Debutante – albeit Rhod won a little easier than the winning distance. Then, Hyd beat Rhod 1 3/4 lengths in the Moyglare. Form says there’s not much between them. Sometimes what’s happening at home gives a clear edge to one or the other. Sometimes it doesn’t and a jockey can not be confident of being on the right horse… and surely he should tell punters that? He apparently believes Rhod the better horse but not by much. Why is Ryan “saying nothing”? For me, it’s a lot more informative; a negative for both horses as it’s unlikely both are tip top two year old fillies. Therefore, if one of the unexposed types is up to the standard/ability of an average Fillies Mile winner – Hyd and Rhod will in all probability get beat.
Value Is EverythingI am going out on a limb here a little but for me EASY VICTORY is overpriced at 50/1.
Very impressive first time out and then pulled far too hard when favourite for the Sweet Solera and SBS horses where not running great. I just feel this horse is considerably better than she has shown so far and is overpriced.
I must admit I have backed HYDRANGEA too!!
Does anyone know who is scheduled to be on commentary duty at HQ tomorrow? I’m already cringing at the thought of hearing a “blossoming” quip should one of the Coolmore fillies prevail.
I’m siding with Spatial here- she may have held an experience advantage over Sobetsu the last time they met but there’s no reason to think that she won’t also have progressed in the interim.
I am going out on a limb here a little but for me EASY VICTORY is overpriced at 50/1.
Very impressive first time out and then pulled far too hard when favourite for the Sweet Solera and SBS horses where not running great. I just feel this horse is considerably better than she has shown so far and is overpriced.
I must admit I have backed HYDRANGEA too!!
I was going to type up a bit about this earlier, but didn’t get the time. It now looks like I’m jumping
on your bandwagon Raymo and Ginger, but I came to the same conclusion about HYDRANGEA and EASY VICTORY.
I took the 13/2 Hydrangea with PP and 50/1 e/w Easy Victory with Bet365 I don’t think EV can win, but I
can see her grabbing 3rd place. The 13/2 still stands for Hydrangea but, the 50s is now best 33s for EV.I’ve also doubled Hydrangea up with TASLEET (11/1 PP) in the Dubai 100 Challenge Stakes. He is stepping up,
but you can drive holes through most of the market leaders form, such as Cougar Mountain who on at best would
win this, but his best days are not too predictable. Richard Pankhurst and Gifted Master both fall into that
same category. Tasleet is at least consistent and is open to more improvement, he’ll do for me.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.