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Interesting two year old races this weekend which will set the market for the early classics next year.
I know in the Dewhurst forum maestro Steve caution has gone for South Seas, and anything he puts up must be respected, however I could not go against CHURCHILL here.
He’s bomb proof and tough, just like his namesake. I know Steve thinks that the form of this one isn’t that great, but he only does enough and although on breeding he would like decent ground, any softening of conditions would not be a problem either as all he does is battle.
You’ve also got Rivet in there and Seven heavens but I really can’t see anything outbattling churchill up the newmarket hill.
Move on to the Fillies mile which is a tougher race to call.
SOBETSU represents the winning conditions of wuhedia who won the Boussac at the weekend, and judging by the way she won last time she might be every bit as good.
I backed interweave last time and she wasn’t just beaten by Sobetsu, she was hammered into a different parish. Of course there’s a danger when a horse wins by such a large margin that they are flattered, but I don’t think that was the case. Sobetsu is also bred to stay further than a mile, so this win wasn’t just encouraging for her guineas prospects, it was hopeful for her oaks chances too.
She does have some formidable rivals though. Hydrangea represents O’Brien, who got the Arc 1-2-3 and is going for a hattrick in this race. She’s a typical O’Brien filly in the sense that she’s improving with racing and she’s very tough. Arguably as the highest rated horse in the race she’s some value at around 9-2.
You’d also have to give a chance to rich legacy and spatial (who has form closely associated with Wuheida) but sobetsu rates the selection.
Selections: DEWHURST CHURCHILL
FILLIES MILE SOBETSUI’m quite undecided if anyone could beat Winston:-), but I absolutely hope so,because I think Galileo offspring should not necessarily win everything..
My second problem is, that I would rate both South Seas and Blue Point very high and could hardly decide between them. What do the experts say?
Perhaps even Steve could raise his voice..Hopefully Steve will be back soon hein bollow but he is currently on forum strike
I did Churchill at 3/1 in the Ante Post comp for the Dewhurst and need the points but I wouldn’t be jumping in too heavy at the current price.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Thank you, Jürg.. äh Nathan, at first I thought he ignored me with all of his knowledge..
I’m afraid I will never understand your concept (not you personally, but the majority of the forum) of good prices, as for me it’s all about which horse would win at any price! This race is a classic example:
What would be the use of a better price, if finally Winston won?
Have a good start into the new week, HBThe short ones don’t win everytime though
Don’t look at it as a better price but a price in terms of value the 4/6 could be a better price than South Seas 5/1 if you think South Seas would only win 15 times out of 100 when to make a profit on 5/1 shots you’d need to win at least 17 times in the 100 races.
How many times out of 100 would you expect Churchill to win this race if it’s over 60 then the 4/6 may be worth taking
I think I’ve done the maths right….
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Churchill in my eyes has the proven form, but I will support Seven Heavens to win a first Group 1 for his Sire.
Seven Heavens beat Lockheed first time out, Lockheed who eyeballed Mehmas in Churchills National Stks.
8/1 WHill, double with Churchill.Best Wishes
SilkSeven Heavens will have to settle better than he did last time otherwise he’ll go out like a light in this company.
Worry for me with the frankels he’s had two runners now in group one company and neither have performed with particular credit. I think to have a really great first season as a sire he need a group one winner but he’s starting to run out of chances.
Fleabiscuit is also interesting in the fillies mile if only because of the name! Also connections have a habit of upsetting the odds in big races.
I am with HB on this,my first port of call is who do i think will win. When i come up with my idea of the winner(which dont win very often) i then look at the price.If i dont like the price,i will make it a no bet race,not look for another.
Only time i will go against this is if i make it a two horse(or boxing as i bet alot on boxing) if i make it as such 5/6 each of two and firms are going 2/1 one of them i would back the 2s shot out pf value even though i cant split them.Back to the dewhurst i agree with Nathan i could not bring myself to back Churchill @ 4/6
GL all this week some interesting racing in latter part of week
Seven Heavens will have to settle better than he did last time otherwise he’ll go out like a light in this company.
Worry for me with the frankels he’s had two runners now in group one company and neither have performed with particular credit. I think to have a really great first season as a sire he need a group one winner but he’s starting to run out of chances.
Fleabiscuit is also interesting in the fillies mile if only because of the name! Also connections have a habit of upsetting the odds in big races.
2 runners in Gr.1 is not much to make a habit…I haven’t seen any of Seven Heavens races (can’t find them on youtube) and his 2nd race was no race and hampered after leaving the stalls, but being a late May foal I will expect him to improve a lot and Lockheed is a good measure point, foaled 4 months earlier but improving from race to race culminating in a 3rd to Churchill latest, just a neck from 2nd.
Best Wishes
SilkLockheed’s trainer (also trainer of Rivet) was very complimentary of Churchill
‘We ran into Churchill in the National Stakes (with Lockheed), he’s very impressive’Churchill‘s form isn’t that much ahead of some of his rivals here, however has undoubted potential; you couldn’t get a better looking individual and is by Galileo. Has a great chance, but the 4 1/4 lengths he had to spare over non-stayer Mehmas flatters him. If Blue Point turns up (doubtful) Churchill will imo be nearer to Evens than 4/6. Godolphin colt beaten at a short price in Middle Park, but winner (who he’d beaten 4 3/4 lengths previously) The Last Lion had the run of the race. Improved (in Gimcrack) since his Goodwood defeat by Mehmas. However, this race may come too soon. South Seas might turn out to be Churchill’s main danger if a softish surface. Backed him at Sandown and did it well, but striked me more for the Racing Post than Dewhurst type and probably needs a test at this trip. I like Rivet as a horse, but although trainer still in reasonable form, Rivet won his last race at a time Haggas was winning everything. Has more potential than Thunder Snow, but only has a head verdict over the Champagne runner-up and latter is double the price. I’ll probably be looking to back Seven Heavens, particularly if a sound surface, shows a long fluent action and reminds me of his sire. Will have a lot more runners to settle in behind than at Ascot and – as long as he does – should improve considerably.
Value Is EverythingI’m quite undecided if anyone could beat Winston:-), but I absolutely hope so,because I think Galileo offspring should not necessarily win everything..
My second problem is, that I would rate both South Seas and Blue Point very high and could hardly decide between them. What do the experts say?
Perhaps even Steve could raise his voice..I have it on very good authority that Steve has backed South Seas for the Dewhurst, Derby and 2000 Guineas, Hein Bollow… Seems to have lost faith in Blue Point after defeat in the Middle Park and of his other 2000 bets on Escobar and Taj Mahal.
Personally, have always thought of Blue Point more a sprinter who could get seven if settling (must be a doubt). Be a little surprised too if turning up for the Dewhurst, doesn’t give much time to recover. Although could still be under-estimated due to the race not being run to his liking last time.
Value Is EverythingInteresting two year old races this weekend which will set the market for the early classics next year.
I know in the Dewhurst forum maestro Steve caution has gone for South Seas, and anything he puts up must be respected, however I could not go against CHURCHILL here.
He’s bomb proof and tough, just like his namesake. I know Steve thinks that the form of this one isn’t that great, but he only does enough and although on breeding he would like decent ground, any softening of conditions would not be a problem either as all he does is battle.
You’ve also got Rivet in there and Seven heavens but I really can’t see anything outbattling churchill up the newmarket hill.
Move on to the Fillies mile which is a tougher race to call.
SOBETSU represents the winning conditions of wuhedia who won the Boussac at the weekend, and judging by the way she won last time she might be every bit as good.
I backed interweave last time and she wasn’t just beaten by Sobetsu, she was hammered into a different parish. Of course there’s a danger when a horse wins by such a large margin that they are flattered, but I don’t think that was the case. Sobetsu is also bred to stay further than a mile, so this win wasn’t just encouraging for her guineas prospects, it was hopeful for her oaks chances too.
She does have some formidable rivals though. Hydrangea represents O’Brien, who got the Arc 1-2-3 and is going for a hattrick in this race. She’s a typical O’Brien filly in the sense that she’s improving with racing and she’s very tough. Arguably as the highest rated horse in the race she’s some value at around 9-2.
You’d also have to give a chance to rich legacy and spatial (who has form closely associated with Wuheida) but sobetsu rates the selection.
Selections: DEWHURST CHURCHILL
FILLIES MILE SOBETSUSteve likes Spatial for the fillies mile and Guineas, Judge.
Value Is EverythingI am only looking from a distance but it wouldn’t surprise me if Churchill has had a significant physical advantage over many of his rivals this season. I would question how much improvement he will find from two to three. He has yet to register anything approaching a spectacular performance. Last time out Mehmas fluffed the start and clearly didn’t stay leaving Churchill with precious little to beat. My money is on him eventually running into a rival with too much speed but chances are that might not happen until next year.
I’m quite undecided if anyone could beat Winston:-), but I absolutely hope so,because I think Galileo offspring should not necessarily win everything..
My second problem is, that I would rate both South Seas and Blue Point very high and could hardly decide between them. What do the experts say?
Perhaps even Steve could raise his voice..I have it on very good authority that Steve has backed South Seas for the Dewhurst, Derby and 2000 Guineas, Hein Bollow… Seems to have lost faith in Blue Point after defeat in the Middle Park and of his other 2000 bets on Escobar and Taj Mahal.
Personally, have always thought of Blue Point more a sprinter who could get seven if settling (must be a doubt). Be a little surprised too if turning up for the Dewhurst, doesn’t give much time to recover. Although could still be under-estimated due to the race not being run to his liking last time.
I think it’s likely that Ballydoyle will run a pacemaker to ensure a strong pace for Churchill. Blue Point would need to stay a strongly run 7f. The going is also likely to be very fast, which won’t suit him, I think Charlie Appleby partly blamed the fast ground last time.
Interesting two year old races this weekend which will set the market for the early classics next year.
I know in the Dewhurst forum maestro Steve caution has gone for South Seas, and anything he puts up must be respected, however I could not go against CHURCHILL here.
He’s bomb proof and tough, just like his namesake. I know Steve thinks that the form of this one isn’t that great, but he only does enough and although on breeding he would like decent ground, any softening of conditions would not be a problem either as all he does is battle.
You’ve also got Rivet in there and Seven heavens but I really can’t see anything outbattling churchill up the newmarket hill.
Move on to the Fillies mile which is a tougher race to call.
SOBETSU represents the winning conditions of wuhedia who won the Boussac at the weekend, and judging by the way she won last time she might be every bit as good.
I backed interweave last time and she wasn’t just beaten by Sobetsu, she was hammered into a different parish. Of course there’s a danger when a horse wins by such a large margin that they are flattered, but I don’t think that was the case. Sobetsu is also bred to stay further than a mile, so this win wasn’t just encouraging for her guineas prospects, it was hopeful for her oaks chances too.
She does have some formidable rivals though. Hydrangea represents O’Brien, who got the Arc 1-2-3 and is going for a hattrick in this race. She’s a typical O’Brien filly in the sense that she’s improving with racing and she’s very tough. Arguably as the highest rated horse in the race she’s some value at around 9-2.
You’d also have to give a chance to rich legacy and spatial (who has form closely associated with Wuheida) but sobetsu rates the selection.
Selections: DEWHURST CHURCHILL
FILLIES MILE SOBETSUSteve likes Spatial for the fillies mile and Guineas, Judge.
How do you know that? It opens up the shocking possibility that perhaps all your arguments with each other were actually some iternalized schizophrenic conversation with each other/yourself?!
Steve seems like a big form guy. I’ve learnt a lot reading his comments on here and yours too ginger.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Spatial won. Steve seems like the forum doyen, I don’t believe him at all when he says he only bets for “buttons”
:lol: Wish I had the literary power to do such a thing.
I can asure you Judge, I am not Steve.
Agreed, Steve was/is one of the most knowledgeable on here.
Although he doesn’t study form the way I know it, there’s nobody better ante-post.Steve made a comment on here about TRFers being surprised at which TRFers are also members of other forums. Thought that was aimed at me because I’d only just joined another one under the same name. Anyway, I’ve since kept my ear to the ground on the other place and there’s a poster there who couldn’t be anyone else.
Steve was the “Leicester” of TRF.
We didn’t get on, but he describes himself as a “bigot”.Value Is Everything
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