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No rain overnight here and the sun is starting to poke its head out from behind the clouds.
Good post JamesScudamore, punters need to be brave and bold.
CITY OF TROY “AOB quote”
“The stride on him is incredible, but he just never gets tired. He goes again going to the line again. I’ve never had a horse where we don’t know where the limit is. We usually push them to the limit, but we can never find his limit.”
04may24 2000Guineas ts=51 rpr=84 (too bad to be true)
In the dewhurst he looked stamina LOADED.trends data
Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 109 or higher… DALLAS STAR (only 106)Only one of mine made the line up so have added another, Bellum Justum copes with the track and ground should be fine, by Sea the Stars too and 25-1 is a decent ew price I think, still available with b365
Euphoric ew 3pl
Bellum Justum ew 4plGood luck all
I won’t be having a bet. It might be the Derby, but it’s not worth wasting money. If it was a decent field you could far more easily put a line through City Of Troy, but chances are he wouldn’t have to be that good to beat this lot. Just as the Oaks looked like a glorified Ribblesdale this looks like a glorified King Edward VII. You just have to hope something will emerge later in the season as the middle distance cupboard looks bare.
I have a trio running for me:
City Of Troy 9/2
Ambiente Friendly 12/1
Ancient Wisdom 11/1 and 6/1, average 17/2I am not too hopeful about City Of Troy but I am hopeful that the other two will give me a run for my money.
My ew picks…
Los Angeles 14-1
Ambiente Friendly 15-2. 4 places.plus City Of Troy 4-1 free bet.
Ground should be quicker come race time – weather 20 degrees and sunny.
Good luck all.
Only one Galileo in the field and he’s 150-1. He’s from the second last crop I think. I don’t know how many mares Galileo covered in his last season, but if numbers were declining it’s possible that Mr Hampstead could be the last Galileo to run in a Derby.
Andrew Balding has had some big priced place horses so either of his two are worth a punt.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Taking two in this which I don’t normally do, Los Angeles and Bellum Justum.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
“It’s possible that Mr Hampstead could be the last Galileo to run in a Derby.”
That is unfortunate. At Chester he looked so slow, he would struggle to win the Queen Alexandra.
^ In my 100% Derby book, I rate the Galileo horse a 0.05% chance. In other words to back him I’d need better than 2000/1. Well, more than 3000/1 actually, because I’d need to factor in a margin for error.
Value Is EverythingI’m sort of with stilvi on this but, on the basis that most seem to have a bit of a chance of winning and everything definitely has a chance of running into a place, I have put a couple of quid on Kamboo (80-1 – 4 places) just for a bit of interest.
Id disagree tonge, most dont have a chance of winning, infact nothing out of the 3 i say below have any chance, the oaks was two yesterday, this is 3 at most, but most likely 2, if the ground quickens up AF will be the 3rd but the winner will come from LA or AW (regardless of ground concerns for AW, its not going to quicken up that much in the next 3 hours based on the time of the 1st)
cot just wont stay, he may redeem himself over a mile, he wont be winning this, dancing gemini has his rating because DV and HL underperformed in the poulains, the rest just forget, group 3 horses
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