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I also like Voyage but want 33’s as its complete guesswork. Yes, he looks very good but inexperience, possible going worries and a wide draw to contend with against him. He’s quick but could pull if held up and could get lit up if rushed early. I’ve have liked to have seen him have another run but good luck to those on him.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
“Made the running 2/3 in his 2yo season, he didnt in the superlative, his maiden is pointless for comparison, he was too good and the dewhurst the way he ran there was no need to take a pull, he flew out the stalls like kachy”.
——————————–I said “effectively made the running”, ham. On his debut he disputed the lead, in the Superlative they split into two groups at the start and he led his group. (See below)
And in the Dewhurst Ryan made sure he was at least disputing it from the off, you can see him urging for a stride or two as they came out of the gate.
I think there’s a good chance the way he was ridden was deliberate. It’s highly unusual for a top Coolmore 2 year old to be ridden like that for every start… You’d think they’d make a point of taking a pull and holding him up in at least one race in order to teach him for his future career… Unless that is the way the horse wants (or possibly needs) to race.
Value Is EverythingSometimes being out in front is the best place to be although I doubt first time up as a 2 yr old the tactics would have been to make sure you go and lead – after that the tactics may well have been to lead if nothing else goes on but being that he kept on leading they might have just decided that if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
Ylang Ylang also made the running in her first three races at 2, but after the shocking non performance in the Moyglare (her 3rd race) they changed tactics and have held her up ever since.
For COT, the draw may dictate a dropped in approach simply because we don’t know if he is going to stay and by pressing forward from the start from draw 1 means you are going to be using up valuable petrol just to get to the front (especially if someone else drawn inside him decides they want to lead). Ryan may have to sit and suffer in behind (where he also runs the risk of getting shuffled way back too) and then it may be a hope to get a run up the inside as it might be difficult to try to find a way to work to the outside of the field.
We should know pretty early on what way they have decided to go.
AOB has won this with Ryan Moore, Emmett Mcnamara, Seamie Heffernan, Padraig Beggy, Joseph O’Brien, Johnny Murtagh and Mick Kinane. I’m hoping he adds an eighth name to that list.
To me O’Brien’s 3yos are not firing this season at the moment and I may jump off Los Angeles.
The more I know the less I understand.
Relax, RTB. I’m on LA…I wouldn’t change my bet ;)
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
I couldn’t be having City Of Troy in this tomorrow as much as he impressed as a 2yo he doesn’t seem to have grown into his frame much this year.
Los Angeles is preferred however I’m going with . ..Ancient Wisdom .. 11/2 – EW (Paddy Power – 4 places)
to give Dubawi yet another success in a race that has eluded him over the years.The more rain the better for this mud lover who has only been beaten twice in his last 6 races by Rosallion and the impressive Economics who got first run on him at York, he has won all his other races impressively so my hope is he will win this.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Good luck with you bet, Jac. Do you think the ground will ride softer than on Friday?
I have Los Angeles at an average price of 7.39, RTB.
On soft I had him in as a 20.5% chance – just slightly shorter than a fair 4/1…
With the drying ground I now (on something between Good and Good-Soft) I think he has an 18% chance, a shade less than a fair 9/2 chance. So still currently value now @ 6.6.
Although the 2 year old Group 1 was on very soft ground, the trial he won this season was on a sound surface, so shouldn’t be inconvenienced by drying ground… It’s just that it reduces the test of stamina and Los Angeles looks all about stamina.Not as good value as Ambiente Friendly (provided the rain stays away) and Macduff though.
Already had averages of 10.19 and 20.53 and gone in again @ 8.2 and 14.5.Value Is EverythingThanks Ruby.. having sadly lost decent Derby hope Hidden Law I’d like to see him win for Charlie Appleby
Doesn’t seem to be any more rain forecast so unsure how it will be riding. Maybe those living close by could update.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Just a couple of days ago I’d been making City Of Troy the third best chance at 19% – a fraction shorter than 9/2. Now I have him as the favourite again, at 23% 100/30. Still not big enough for me to back him. If they were to beat Racing Post standard in any of the preceding races he’d be 26% 11/4 or 28% 5/2.
Value Is EverythingMacduff the one i’ll probably back now. Lovely pedigree with a mix of stamina + speed. Taken it slowly with him + even after winning his debut i think he’s been learning plenty on the job. That reappearance was fine + Arabian Crown was a potential Derby horse himself, 6-1 straight after his Sandown win.
Gl all.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I liked the sire angle on Ancient Wisdom Jac, we saw a Deep Impact win last year so Dubawi would continue a trend of those that have lingered around.
I think it’s time for a Camelot to do the business and LOS ANGELES looks the best of those but could see a big run from 2 other camelots in DANCING GEMINI and DEIRA MILE.
Too early for a Golden Horn? Voyage can’t be ruled out, we’ve seen recently these types go close.The ones I can’t have as sire victors are JUSTIFY (City of Troy) and GLENEAGLES (Ambiente Friendly) plus other outsiders.
The market around City of Troy currently is misleading, drifted out to 7/2 last night to be backed again over this early hours into 9/4, another negative is the dreaded stall 1 which has seen limited winners. I am going to have a look at the trends that are relevant more for this race.
Ancient Wisdom
Dallas Star
Los AngelesBased on the trends the winner should be coming from one of the three above…..
Ancient Wisdom finished off the season last year better than ever when landing the Autumn & Futurity Stakes, he had a few of these beaten in Deira Mile, Gods Window and Dancing Gemini. The Dante has seen only one winner in the past 10yrs which was Golden Horn with the only other runner being Desert Crown who bypassed the Derby, so in theory the stats is 1-1.
Sadly with the loss of Hidden Law who won the Chester vase this years Derby does not have a lot of depth on the ability that are coming form solid trends, the Lingfield trials Anthony Van Dyck went on to Derby glory and i am seriously surprised that Illinois has not taken his chances here after finishing behind Ambiently Friendly at Lingfied, Adayar who won the 2023 renewal of the trial also bypassed the Derby so once more 1-1 from the stats.
After watching yesterday the ground looked tacky and the rain has likely got into the ground, no electric times here so we have to bet based on trust that some of the main entries are going to handle the conditions and one horse we know can do that is CITY OF TROY.
All the pundits are swerving the hotpot here purely based on running in a straight mile that was ridden at a blistering pace, he ran over a mile, he flopped in the Guinea. Yeah solid three negatives and the way Ylang Ylang ran in the Oaks even Ryan Moore said she will get better as the season goes on, is the same that we are expecting, an 80% fit City of Troy.
Ambiently Friendly and Ancient Wisdom are strong adversaries to the favourite, Godolphin have to be respected and if the value is in this race it has to be ANCIENT WISDOM, the fact that they have not run scared and entered him is another positive, only thing putting me off with Ambiently Friendly is that the winners of the trial in Anthony Van Dyck and Desert Crown were both black type winners prior where he would have to improve a lot to land this on paper being only a Listed winner, however we have seen a maiden winner in Serpentine over the past decade, and who else but Aiden O’Brien can accomplish that.
My prediction is that both Ambiently Friendly and Ancient Wisdom will try and take the sting out of the race and kick on early into the bend for home, try and see if CITY OF TROY can get the trip in the ground, I think he will come home strongly and being by triple crown winner Justify I would like to think this is going to be a masterclass ride by Ryan Moore.
CITY OF TROY : 2pt win @ 11/4
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