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For me horses that win over 1m2f as 2yos are almost always boats
And boats don’t usually win the derby
I’d worry about whether he has the cruising speed to stay in contention when they quicken
Which is why I had him down as a leger horse more than a derby horse
I’ve had 10/1 matched for the Leger too. As an insurance policy.
But a truly run 1m4f on soft ground in early June will need almost as much stamina as 1m6f on good-firm ground in September. He’s a boat, but he’s a bloody powerful boat. Not a speed boat but one who’d do well in the America’s Cup. Capable of maintaining a soft ground even pace at 12f… And if others do accelerate and he’s outpaced, could still stay on at the end.
Value Is EverythingTinman, as mentioned before, Ambiente Friendly had no form to speak of after his seasonal debut to think he could win a Derby. He then improved in his 2nd seasonal run (4th career start) to then become Derby shortlist material. There is a possibility that there is a bigger run in Los Angeles after 3 career runs and 1 season run going up in trip. AOB is expecting a chunky step forward from the ‘big horse’.
Willie Carson was unimpressed with City Of Troy’s physical development when he saw him on Guineas day and says regarding his Derby prospects, “How’s a little horse like that going to win?”
Thoughts?
COT could have just been a fully devloped 2 yr old – it was noticed he hadn’t grown much and I can’t quite remember who said it to him but I remember AOB was a little defensive in his response.
For me the stall 1 draw might well influence them more into changing tactics….i.e. will they now drop him in to ride him to get the trip or will they risk bouncing him out and going to the front, which will use up some energy early on, especially given the start is uphill.
Really wouldn’t surprise me if LA sits very handy to cover if anyone on the front tries to slow it up, the only way he wins is through a proper staying test and he may well need to be committed off the turn to try and take advantage of his stamina.
A lot rides (pardon the pun) on Wayne Lordan in both this race and the Oaks (Rubies Are Red), not sure what his Epsom experience is so will he be confident enough to be able to take the bull by the horns and kick from a long way out to exploit LA’s stamina?
It is not as if he is in great form either having ridden just 1 winner from 26 rides in the last 14 days.
“Really wouldn’t surprise me if LA sits very handy to cover if anyone on the front tries to slow it up,”
I already had a picture in my head of Los Angeles sitting in the first 3 or 4 from the beginning.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Dobbs on Voyage from his outside draw looked to nick an early lead …
I
m with Willie Carson on this. I think City of Troy was a brilliant and neat 2 yr old, but hasnt progressed physically from 2 to 3. Also watched a last weekend video of him in his work and most surprised to see that after he passed his lead horse and quickened away, he was then ridden out and taken off the bridle. As a work rider for many years, I was always told to leave something in the locker when riding work and never to get the horse off the bridle, especially a week before a race. We shall see if me and Willie are right about City of Troy tomorrow.In a year with no strong favourite, and question marks over many of the shorter-priced runners, I’m happy to look for something at longer odds.
I agree with BigG up thread that there was a lot to like about Voyage’s victory at Newbury over 1m2f.
Nice stamp of a horse, sire won the Derby, and he came away from his field nicely, hitting the line hard – and the trainer is in decent form. I’m sure I’ve backed worse 20-1 shots than this…
It’s difficult to think of another horse that has divided opinion – in recent times – going into the Derby as much as City Of Troy. Anyone that fancies him are doing so with a handful of optimism at the expense of confidence, while those opposing him will undoubtedly be keeping one eye on him during the contest. Yes, many of you may have been publicly exuding confidence that he was ‘only a two year old’ but his presence in this contest still makes you privately a little uneasy!
The draw is of little concern. White Birch & King Of Steel came from stalls two and four last year. Westover & Hoo Ya Mal from two and three in 2022, and Adayar emerged from stall one twelve months earlier. I think a lot depends on the quality of the colt, the tactics you wish to employ and, not forgetting, likewise of those on your outside.
Sayedaty Sadaty (1) will likely be ridden forward based on previous races and no concerns regarding the trip. I doubt connections of Kamboo (2) will be in a hurry to hustle and bustle granted his inexperience, and with Los Angeles in stall four and likely pacesetter, Euphoric, coming out of nine, the O’Brien mob are like well positioned chess pieces ready to strike.
With each passing home based ‘trial’, I have found myself leaning more and more towards the potential Irish challenge for this contest, merely reduced to Aidan O’Brien vs Britain (and a cameo from Adrian Murray). Can City Of Troy silence the doubters? Could Euphoric slip the field? Does Los Angeles have any question marks?(!).
So, with that I’m siding with LOS ANGELES to send his supporters into La La Land. It wouldn’t be the first time Ryan Moore got it wrong but, lets face it, he didn’t have a choice…Not a very good advertisement for the mythology of the horse when he sets sail on his expedition to stud!
It could very well be a Euphoric day for Aidan O’Brien, with City Of Angels finding the expected – and demanded – improvement to beat stablemate City Of Troy, leading home an Irish 1-2-3. Best of Britain? Believe in Balding to give you some value in this race. He’s pretty good at that ;)
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
With City Of Troy connections have a problem in that he’s effectively made the running in all his starts so far. Why is that? Is unusual for a top class Coolmore horse. Does he need to lead? Or does he need a clear view of the front? Or is he claustrophobic, not wanting to be surrounded by rivals? The last Guineas runner I can remember with a similar profile running in The Derby was Mister Baileys, and look how that ended. Has team Balydoyle now taught him to be amongst horses? For a miler going up to a mile and a half the horse’s main asset is surely his speed / turn of foot. So you’d expect City Of Troy to be held up. But I have noticed when this type of horse is held up they tend to do better when on the outer of the field, with at least one way out as it were. Not on the rail. However, even that is now going to be more difficult drawn 1. So will Ryan take a chance and ride prominently? Or try and get a position on the outer but may need to accept being on the inner? Or drop him out and be at the back with nothing to either side?
Value Is EverythingGinge, surely Moore would ideally stick to the inside rail, allow the horse to get into a rhythm and track the leaders before pulling a bit wider once they’re in line for home, to avoid the worst of the camber, and launching his attack down the middle of the course.
The question is, does he have the horse to do that.
Yes Glad, if City Of Troy’s temperament allows it the best place to be would be on the inner.
But I am asking what is the reason for him effectively making the running on all of his starts?
It is not something Coolmore usually do with their best horses. So it makes me think the reason could be he does not like being surrounded. If so being on the inner would be the worst place.It would also explain why he folded so tamely once headed in the Guineas.
Luxembourg is perhaps the nearest Ballydoyle type to City Of Troy. He used to be held up in his early days. But in recent years he’s appeared to be kept wide if unable to race prominently; since an awful trip on the inner in the 2022 Arc. Indeed, when not able to get a prominent posi’ Luxembourg seems a difficult ride and races with his head held awkwardly. He seems happier and is more consistent ridden prominently with a clear view of the front.
Value Is EverythingMade the running 2/3 in his 2yo season, he didnt in the superlative, his maiden is pointless for comparison, he was too good and the dewhurst the way he ran there was no need to take a pull, he flew out the stalls like kachy
Think your over analysing this.
Its not a thing
He wont win anyway, but it wont be because hes not made all
Hes just not trained on
More a poster on Fat Jockey but long time reader of the forum. City of Troy intrigues me. I have a friend who moves in circles at racedays, helping out ‘the lads’ home and abroad, can be close to them at times. COT was fully expected to win at Newmarket. Fully expect to win Saturday also, but Ylang Ylang rates a better bet. Ground coming right into COT also.
Most Justify’s need to be prominent do they not, when racing, following their father? I had looked previously and from a limited data set, saw that results were better when prominent or leading. Would agree with GT about temperament bred into them.
A lot made of the video when being hard ridden in work. Aiden was soft on him all winter, ground over here only dry in the last 3 weeks, since September! COT needs to be taught how to race, ride him out, get him used to not being soft. I would think a lot would have been made of him since Newmarket. Horse is over 16 hands high, I think we will see a different horse, physically anyways, mentally all going well on Saturday, but a lot has to go well to win any race, as we know. Doubt the 4s will be seen again.
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