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  • #44110
    Stormont
    Member
    • Total Posts 300

    When watching on Tv, i don’t really tend to look for fitness in the paddock but i was very interested in Doumen’s remarks in the morning, where he stated something like "this was merely as prep for march" and from looking at them both, i thought Kauto looked much the fitter animal…….. but it’s not always easy looking from the tele.

    Maybe i’m wrong.

    Anyway, i’m in the Kauto will not complete group……..

    #44112
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Back to the original post:

    (don’t know how I managed to miss this thread)

    If I were the sponsor of the Gold Cup, I reckon I’d be unhappy about this bonus gettting the publicity, as it inevitably will on the day, especially as it’s been provided by a rival.

    I think an argument could be made that the Bf million detracts from the deal the Tote paid for.

    I’d be interested to know when the current deal was agreed i.e. did the tote know the score before putting up the money?

    If not, I reckon they’ve the right to ask for a rebate.

    On the other hand, if they renewed since Betfair put up the prize, they knew the risk that, sometimes, a horse will be running for the £1,000,000.

    Steve

    #44113
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    My first impression, since it was the last fence in both races, was that he became over-anxious not to lose gound before the fence and thereby forfeited the spatial awareness and judgment shown by his rivals, who nevertheless lacked his raw speed.

    Not that I want him to win, or for that matter, injure himself and/or get badly demoralised.

    <br>I wondered, therefore, if Ruby kept him closer to the lead, obviating the need for his final burst  until after the last, i.e. starting from a little way behind on the run-in, might be the answer.

    On the other hand, L’Ami sure wasn’t stopping, so there’s certainly a risk – though the final hill at Chelters would help.

    Who knows, maybe he stays well enough to lead from the front!

    (Edited by Grimes at 11:07 pm on Feb. 13, 2007)

    #44115
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    There’s only one horse in the Gold Cup betting that I wouldn’t lay against Kauto Star, and that’s In Compliance. He looked a potential class act when debuting over fences and has always been held in high regard. I don’t think there was any fluke about his victory over War of Attrition last time and, whilst quicker ground is a slight worry, I’d fancy him to run a big race.

    Despite the obvious speed influence in Kauto’s pedigree, there is some hope that the 3m 2.5f trip will prove within his range; both Barton and Ivoire De Beaulieu appear on the dam’s side, the latter being (prior to his two outings over here this season) a very useful long-distance animal.

    The basics for me are if Kauto stands up, he wins, but In Compliance looks a dangerous rival should difficulties occur.

    #44117
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    For me, there is still a serious doubt about Kauto Star’s last run.<br> Fair enough, it was only a prep race, and no doubt he could have been fitter, but surely the same apllies in equal measure to the runner-up L’Ami. <br>Last fence blunder by the winnner or not, there really wasn’t that much between them all the way up the run in, and L’Ami was murdered by War of Attrition in last year’s GC.<br>Royal Auclair’s proximity doesn’t help either, beaten 14l on going he doesn’t like, yet thrashed 16l last year on more favorable ground in the big one.<br>PN is nobody’s mug, and he will produce a fitter horse on the day it matters, but one would still have expected better than this, judged on his previous runs this season?

    #44118
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Personally I think in a truer run race KS will murder L’Ami… I’d be willing to be he won;t get within 8 lengths next time. Plus he was giving L’Ami 10lbs..

    I still think he’ll win the GC, WOA and exotic dancer are the only serious contenders.

    #44121
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Aragorn/Grassy

    Yeah, I hear what your saying, but surely a truer run race would have been more help to the out-and-out stayer, while the sprint finish should have favoured the VC winner?<br>Not sure about the weight concession either, as KS would be at least 15lbs higher in most ratings before the race.<br>I am not knocking KS for any of his previous runs, but still feel his latest was below expectations. The Official Handicapper wasn’t too impressed either, as he has dropped KS by 1lb – not an enormous amount, but about what you’d expect for a first below-par run?<br>Of course, he should still have a favourite’s chance in the GC, but ceased to be a betting proposition, imo, when he didn’t assert more easily on Saturday.<br>Of the others, War of Attrtition, given normal GC ground, will probably be my bet, with some sort of f/c to include KS and Exotic Dancer, which I agree are the only other serious contenders.

    #44122
    bigmickie
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    yes I think it is likely that Betfair will be getting some massive publicity because of their bonus on offer and the Tote can feel justifiably miffed if this does occur.<br>I think that Kauto..despite his immense talent..has used up a shedload of luck in staying on his feet in recent races and has to well worthy of being the banker lay at the festival.

    #44123
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    For me you’ll be laying whether or not he falls.. When he gets his jumping right he’s an absolute stag.. Considering he went off even money for the champion chase last year on the basis of a win in the tingle creek and basic potential, 7/4 isn’t a bad price (admittedly this is a stronger race than the CC last year) on what he’s achieved this year.

    Reet, not sure where you get L’Ami being an out and out stayer from.. He’s a very good 3m chaser in my book.

    #44125
    SirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1208

    Well was last years gold cup any good??  Why should this one be any better??r

    War of attention, who doesnt win that many races but jumps and stays quite well wins from Hedgehunter.  Is the  latter a classy Grade 1, 3 mile chaser?  They open up a big gap to Forget the Past who was a nonstayer and lami, who we wont surely be ever calling a top 3 mile chaser either..or are we?

    IMO, and without wishing to start any debates on Beef Or Salmon, he is essentially still wining and competeing well in races in Ireland despite getting older,  is partly because there are not too many genuine soft ground tolerating grade 1 horses around and the gold cup shows us that the situation might be worse for good ground grade 1 horses.  T

    This gold cup should be between KS and WOA simply because the rest are good handicappers at best.  Perhaps we can add In Compliance to the list but we have to wait and see if he stays…a comment that applys to the favourite but at least the evidence looks stronger.

    This is no golden era, thats for sure.

    SHL

    #44127
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    This thread is about the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and its possible winners.<br>How on Earth did Beef or Salmon get onto it?:biggrin: :biggrin:

    #44128
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    "Well was last years gold cup any good??  Why should this one be any better??"

    Ay? Whats your point? Not sure I follow.

    I also think (as with many other people) your dismissing exotic dancer too easily. Personally I think if anything will beat Kauto Star it will be him. He’s proved he’s more than just a good handicapper. Or are there only three horses in training that aren’t (KS, Well Chief and Beefy!!)<br>

    #44129
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Quote: from reet hard on 3:50 pm on Feb. 14, 2007[br]This thread is about the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and its possible winners.<br>How on Earth did Beef or Salmon get onto it?:biggrin: :biggrin:

    • <br>
    • I will not take the bait<br>
    • I will not take the bait<br>
    • I will not take the bait<br>
    • I will not take the bait<br>
    • I will not tak<br>
    #44131
    SirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1208

    Quote: from Aragorn on 3:54 pm on Feb. 14, 2007[br]"Well was last years gold cup any good??  Why should this one be any better??"

    Ay? Whats your point? Not sure I follow.

    I also think (as with many other people) your dismissing exotic dancer too easily. Personally I think if anything will beat Kauto Star it will be him. He’s proved he’s more than just a good handicapper. Or are there only three horses in training that aren’t (KS, Well Chief and Beefy!!)

    My point is that your assessement that this race would be better than last years Champion chase might not be true.  Could many of these shoulder top weight in handicaps?  I doubth it seriously and I think once Kauto star stays and jumps, he wouldnt have to be a wonder horse (which im still not convinced he is) to win it.

    Not this time Reet :) :)

    SHL

    #44132
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Harry,

    Are you seriously telling me that last years champion chase was stronger than this years gold cup?! :o Come on.. ;)

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