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  • #44082
    Kifill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 130

    Quote: from Stormont on 7:25 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]Quicker ground would be a no no for me, quicker ground plus bigger field = Kauto Star making a few mistakes too many.

    If he had made the mistakes he made in the KG and today at Cheltenham he would have been on the floor, those fences are very stiff, they won’t take much of that.

    If he puts in a good round of jumping he should win, but i don’t think he will put in a good round especially with a quicker pace and more runners. Jumping has always seemed to be an issue for him and you can’t usually win a Gold Cup with an average jumper when the race is hotting up.<br>

    It is, I think, a myth that the Gold Cup provides a particulary severe jumping test – the likes of Dawn Run, Imperial Call, Master Oats and Mr Mulligan went into their Gold Cups after demonstrating alarming jumping frailties, but managed to cope when it mattered.  Some with a similar history do not cope, Barton Bank for instance, and I suspect much depends on how the horse is settled and is ridden on the day, and whether the race unfolds in a suitable way.

    #44083
    jilly
    Member
    • Total Posts 608

    Today confirms that i was right to lay KS last night for the GC-In my mostest humble opinion.The fact that many on here make excuses for his errant jumping brings me most joy-cheers :biggrin: <br>

    #44086
    Stormont
    Member
    • Total Posts 300

    Quote: from Kifill on 11:13 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]

    Quote: from Stormont on 7:25 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]Quicker ground would be a no no for me, quicker ground plus bigger field = Kauto Star making a few mistakes too many.

    If he had made the mistakes he made in the KG and today at Cheltenham he would have been on the floor, those fences are very stiff, they won’t take much of that.

    If he puts in a good round of jumping he should win, but i don’t think he will put in a good round especially with a quicker pace and more runners. Jumping has always seemed to be an issue for him and you can’t usually win a Gold Cup with an average jumper when the race is hotting up.<br>

    It is, I think, a myth that the Gold Cup provides a particulary severe jumping test – the likes of Dawn Run, Imperial Call, Master Oats and Mr Mulligan went into their Gold Cups after demonstrating alarming jumping frailties, but managed to cope when it mattered.  Some with a similar history do not cope, Barton Bank for instance, and I suspect much depends on how the horse is settled and is ridden on the day, and whether the race unfolds in a suitable way.<br>

    I think that post is a complete myth, any race run at cheltenham much depends on the jumping, with such difficult fences which are also very stiff.

    If this horse makes mistakes around Newbury where the fences are generally easy to jump, he has very little chance of getting around Cheltenham, especially when we still aren’t 100% sure the horse will stay 3mile 2 around a stiff track.

    It concerned me yesterday that he also didn’t quicken away from a thorough stayer like L’ami, which to me, he should have done, especially when in my eyes Kauto looked the fitter horse out of the two.

    #44087
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    On that ground, L’Ami is a decent horse and to give him 10lbs and beat him isn’t a negligible achievement by any means.

    I think there’s some merit in what Kifill says. Add to his list the name of Take The Stand who gave Kicking King a real race two years back after making serious blunders at each of the first two fences. Nobody can be certain Kauto Star will jump round Cheltenham but even when he’s made mistakes this season he hasn’t looked much like falling and his supporters can take comfort from the fact that when he does make mistakes he finds plenty thereafter.

    #44088
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Ratings compilers – What mark did you get Kauto Star running to yesterday?

    #44090
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    I don’t like being pessimistic, and hope I’m wrong (despite my bets agin him), but having just seen the replay, I fear for Kauto Star’s safety. He took off from too far back didn’t he? And at speed.

    Of course the speed helped him plough through it, but the haste may not be quite matched by sufficient speed one day, and with the ground less soft, he could be injured.

    Someone suggested, despite other apparent counter-indications – that the problem was that he didn’t stay so well, and maybe they’re right.

    #44093
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Quote: from trackside528 on 1:24 am on Feb. 13, 2007[br]

    Quote: from Grimes on 12:52 am on Feb. 13, 2007[br]Someone suggested, despite other apparent counter-indications – that the problem was that he didn’t stay so well, and maybe they’re right.

    <br>Can’t see that at all, given the way he stayed on up the run in to see off L’Ami.. think its more a matter of concentration than anything else..

    ’tis always a worry, when a horse clouts one late on, that he is coming to the end of his tether, but, a la Kicking King in the King George, when they produce more afterwards, it shows the tank isn’t necessarily empty.

    #44095
    griff11
    Participant
    • Total Posts 116

    There is obviously a concern about him clouting one at Cheltenham and then getting away with it as he has done at Kempton and Newbury. It’s not as though he can’t jump because he can, fluently, but the concentration, or whatever problem is will be harder to condition for.

    I just can’t bring myself to back him mainly for that reason, but on the other side of the coin, One Knight pretty much hit every one to some degree in the RSA and made it home.

    Kauto Star always seems to get a leg out to save himself and having that athletic ability is a big plus.

    Hope they don’t get low sun issues, he’d be really buggered!!

    <br>

    #44096
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    Quote: from reet hard on 2:46 am on Feb. 13, 2007[br]’tis always a worry, when a horse clouts one late on, that he is coming to the end of his tether, but, a la Kicking King in the King George, when they produce more afterwards, it shows the tank isn’t necessarily empty.<br>

    Mention of Kicking King brings to mind his shocking error at the last in his first King George. He went on to jump round Cheltenham without a problem.

    #44098
    johnjdonoghue
    Member
    • Total Posts 994

    Gus,

    KK mistake was due to the fact there was a lunatic dressed as Santa running across the finishing line as he approached the final fence. Other than that, you can’t compare the erratic errors that KS makes to KK’s jumping ability.

    JohnJ.<br>

    #44100
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Quote: from johnjdonoghue on 12:28 pm on Feb. 13, 2007[br]Gus,

    KK mistake was due to the fact there was a lunatic dressed as Santa running across the finishing line as he approached the final fence. Other than that, you can’t compare the erratic errors that KS makes to KK’s jumping ability.

    JohnJ.

    LOL

    Is that true?

    #44102
    johnjdonoghue
    Member
    • Total Posts 994

    Grassy,

    Fair enuff, but it was his only ever serious error, maybe it was a coincidence ;)

    JohnJ

    #44105
    Salselon
    Member
    • Total Posts 883

    I think you are betting 7/4 on KS staying up. Despite his tendency to make a hash of an odd fence, this doesn’t seem to make a difference to how he travels/picks up after said mistakes.

    Can anyone realistically see KS staying up and not winning?

    #44107
    Kifill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 130

    Yes, if he either does not stay the trip or is one of those strange beasts who dislikes the undulations at Cheltenham.

    #44108
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Quote: from Stormont on 11:53 am on Feb. 11, 2007[br]

    Quote: from Kifill on 11:13 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]

    Quote: from Stormont on 7:25 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]Quicker ground would be a no no for me, quicker ground plus bigger field = Kauto Star making a few mistakes too many.

    If he had made the mistakes he made in the KG and today at Cheltenham he would have been on the floor, those fences are very stiff, they won’t take much of that.

    If he puts in a good round of jumping he should win, but i don’t think he will put in a good round especially with a quicker pace and more runners. Jumping has always seemed to be an issue for him and you can’t usually win a Gold Cup with an average jumper when the race is hotting up.<br>

    It is, I think, a myth that the Gold Cup provides a particulary severe jumping test – the likes of Dawn Run, Imperial Call, Master Oats and Mr Mulligan went into their Gold Cups after demonstrating alarming jumping frailties, but managed to cope when it mattered.  Some with a similar history do not cope, Barton Bank for instance, and I suspect much depends on how the horse is settled and is ridden on the day, and whether the race unfolds in a suitable way.<br>

    I think that post is a complete myth, any race run at cheltenham much depends on the jumping, with such difficult fences which are also very stiff.

    If this horse makes mistakes around Newbury where the fences are generally easy to jump, he has very little chance of getting around Cheltenham, especially when we still aren’t 100% sure the horse will stay 3mile 2 around a stiff track.

    It concerned me yesterday that he also didn’t quicken away from a thorough stayer like L’ami, which to me, he should have done, especially when in my eyes Kauto looked the fitter horse out of the two.<br>

    Stormont, I thought L’Ami looked by far the fitter animal (not that I really know what i’m talking about).. Anyone else got a view?

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 105 total)
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