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Quote: from trackside528 on 1:24 am on Feb. 13, 2007[br]
Quote: from Grimes on 12:52 am on Feb. 13, 2007[br]Someone suggested, despite other apparent counter-indications – that the problem was that he didn’t stay so well, and maybe they’re right.
<br>Can’t see that at all, given the way he stayed on up the run in to see off L’Ami.. think its more a matter of concentration than anything else..
’tis always a worry, when a horse clouts one late on, that he is coming to the end of his tether, but, a la Kicking King in the King George, when they produce more afterwards, it shows the tank isn’t necessarily empty.
There is obviously a concern about him clouting one at Cheltenham and then getting away with it as he has done at Kempton and Newbury. It’s not as though he can’t jump because he can, fluently, but the concentration, or whatever problem is will be harder to condition for.
I just can’t bring myself to back him mainly for that reason, but on the other side of the coin, One Knight pretty much hit every one to some degree in the RSA and made it home.
Kauto Star always seems to get a leg out to save himself and having that athletic ability is a big plus.
Hope they don’t get low sun issues, he’d be really buggered!!
<br>
Quote: from reet hard on 2:46 am on Feb. 13, 2007[br]’tis always a worry, when a horse clouts one late on, that he is coming to the end of his tether, but, a la Kicking King in the King George, when they produce more afterwards, it shows the tank isn’t necessarily empty.<br>
Mention of Kicking King brings to mind his shocking error at the last in his first King George. He went on to jump round Cheltenham without a problem.
Gus,
KK mistake was due to the fact there was a lunatic dressed as Santa running across the finishing line as he approached the final fence. Other than that, you can’t compare the erratic errors that KS makes to KK’s jumping ability.
JohnJ.<br>
Quote: from johnjdonoghue on 12:28 pm on Feb. 13, 2007[br]Gus,
KK mistake was due to the fact there was a lunatic dressed as Santa running across the finishing line as he approached the final fence. Other than that, you can’t compare the erratic errors that KS makes to KK’s jumping ability.
JohnJ.
LOL
Is that true?
Grassy,
Fair enuff, but it was his only ever serious error, maybe it was a coincidence ;)
JohnJ
I think you are betting 7/4 on KS staying up. Despite his tendency to make a hash of an odd fence, this doesn’t seem to make a difference to how he travels/picks up after said mistakes.
Can anyone realistically see KS staying up and not winning?
Yes, if he either does not stay the trip or is one of those strange beasts who dislikes the undulations at Cheltenham.
Quote: from Stormont on 11:53 am on Feb. 11, 2007[br]
Quote: from Kifill on 11:13 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]
Quote: from Stormont on 7:25 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]Quicker ground would be a no no for me, quicker ground plus bigger field = Kauto Star making a few mistakes too many.
If he had made the mistakes he made in the KG and today at Cheltenham he would have been on the floor, those fences are very stiff, they won’t take much of that.
If he puts in a good round of jumping he should win, but i don’t think he will put in a good round especially with a quicker pace and more runners. Jumping has always seemed to be an issue for him and you can’t usually win a Gold Cup with an average jumper when the race is hotting up.<br>
It is, I think, a myth that the Gold Cup provides a particulary severe jumping test – the likes of Dawn Run, Imperial Call, Master Oats and Mr Mulligan went into their Gold Cups after demonstrating alarming jumping frailties, but managed to cope when it mattered.  Some with a similar history do not cope, Barton Bank for instance, and I suspect much depends on how the horse is settled and is ridden on the day, and whether the race unfolds in a suitable way.<br>
I think that post is a complete myth, any race run at cheltenham much depends on the jumping, with such difficult fences which are also very stiff.
If this horse makes mistakes around Newbury where the fences are generally easy to jump, he has very little chance of getting around Cheltenham, especially when we still aren’t 100% sure the horse will stay 3mile 2 around a stiff track.
It concerned me yesterday that he also didn’t quicken away from a thorough stayer like L’ami, which to me, he should have done, especially when in my eyes Kauto looked the fitter horse out of the two.<br>
Stormont, I thought L’Ami looked by far the fitter animal (not that I really know what i’m talking about).. Anyone else got a view?
When watching on Tv, i don’t really tend to look for fitness in the paddock but i was very interested in Doumen’s remarks in the morning, where he stated something like "this was merely as prep for march" and from looking at them both, i thought Kauto looked much the fitter animal…….. but it’s not always easy looking from the tele.
Maybe i’m wrong.
Anyway, i’m in the Kauto will not complete group……..
Back to the original post:
(don’t know how I managed to miss this thread)
If I were the sponsor of the Gold Cup, I reckon I’d be unhappy about this bonus gettting the publicity, as it inevitably will on the day, especially as it’s been provided by a rival.
I think an argument could be made that the Bf million detracts from the deal the Tote paid for.
I’d be interested to know when the current deal was agreed i.e. did the tote know the score before putting up the money?
If not, I reckon they’ve the right to ask for a rebate.
On the other hand, if they renewed since Betfair put up the prize, they knew the risk that, sometimes, a horse will be running for the £1,000,000.
Steve
My first impression, since it was the last fence in both races, was that he became over-anxious not to lose gound before the fence and thereby forfeited the spatial awareness and judgment shown by his rivals, who nevertheless lacked his raw speed.
Not that I want him to win, or for that matter, injure himself and/or get badly demoralised.
<br>I wondered, therefore, if Ruby kept him closer to the lead, obviating the need for his final burst  until after the last, i.e. starting from a little way behind on the run-in, might be the answer.
On the other hand, L’Ami sure wasn’t stopping, so there’s certainly a risk – though the final hill at Chelters would help.
Who knows, maybe he stays well enough to lead from the front!
(Edited by Grimes at 11:07 pm on Feb. 13, 2007)
There’s only one horse in the Gold Cup betting that I wouldn’t lay against Kauto Star, and that’s In Compliance. He looked a potential class act when debuting over fences and has always been held in high regard. I don’t think there was any fluke about his victory over War of Attrition last time and, whilst quicker ground is a slight worry, I’d fancy him to run a big race.
Despite the obvious speed influence in Kauto’s pedigree, there is some hope that the 3m 2.5f trip will prove within his range; both Barton and Ivoire De Beaulieu appear on the dam’s side, the latter being (prior to his two outings over here this season) a very useful long-distance animal.
The basics for me are if Kauto stands up, he wins, but In Compliance looks a dangerous rival should difficulties occur.
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For me, there is still a serious doubt about Kauto Star’s last run.<br> Fair enough, it was only a prep race, and no doubt he could have been fitter, but surely the same apllies in equal measure to the runner-up L’Ami. <br>Last fence blunder by the winnner or not, there really wasn’t that much between them all the way up the run in, and L’Ami was murdered by War of Attrition in last year’s GC.<br>Royal Auclair’s proximity doesn’t help either, beaten 14l on going he doesn’t like, yet thrashed 16l last year on more favorable ground in the big one.<br>PN is nobody’s mug, and he will produce a fitter horse on the day it matters, but one would still have expected better than this, judged on his previous runs this season?
Personally I think in a truer run race KS will murder L’Ami… I’d be willing to be he won;t get within 8 lengths next time. Plus he was giving L’Ami 10lbs..
I still think he’ll win the GC, WOA and exotic dancer are the only serious contenders.
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Aragorn/Grassy
Yeah, I hear what your saying, but surely a truer run race would have been more help to the out-and-out stayer, while the sprint finish should have favoured the VC winner?<br>Not sure about the weight concession either, as KS would be at least 15lbs higher in most ratings before the race.<br>I am not knocking KS for any of his previous runs, but still feel his latest was below expectations. The Official Handicapper wasn’t too impressed either, as he has dropped KS by 1lb – not an enormous amount, but about what you’d expect for a first below-par run?<br>Of course, he should still have a favourite’s chance in the GC, but ceased to be a betting proposition, imo, when he didn’t assert more easily on Saturday.<br>Of the others, War of Attrtition, given normal GC ground, will probably be my bet, with some sort of f/c to include KS and Exotic Dancer, which I agree are the only other serious contenders.
yes I think it is likely that Betfair will be getting some massive publicity because of their bonus on offer and the Tote can feel justifiably miffed if this does occur.<br>I think that Kauto..despite his immense talent..has used up a shedload of luck in staying on his feet in recent races and has to well worthy of being the banker lay at the festival.
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