February 9, 2007 at 07:24 #44024
You think it is a 3/1 shot for a horse to win all three races?February 9, 2007 at 08:40 #44025
Was at the start. <br>Dont forget any company accepting the premium also needs to take into consideration costs of running office and brokers fees and to factor in a profit margin its not the same as betting the odds without any hidden costs involved.<br>February 9, 2007 at 08:46 #44026
Jilly<br>Timeform list the top 6 best chasers as <br>Arkle 212<br>Flyingbolt 210<br>Mill House 191<br>Dessie 187<br>Dunkirk 186<br>Kauto Star 184
any probs with that assesment?February 9, 2007 at 08:50 #44027
I am fully aware of how insurance – both bloodstock and this sort of thing works having worked in that industry.
For Betfair to pay 250k to save 750k seems bizarre in the extreme to me – particularly when they were prepared to offer 33s about Best Mate achieving such an eventuality.
<br>Kauto Star has won two of the three legs already and is still 6/4 to win the Gold Cup, yet you believe that it is a 3/1 shot to win the bonus from the outset?
<br>Incidentally, how many King George winners have gone on to win at Cheltenham three months later? Kicking King, Best Mate, Desert Orchid……..<br>
(Edited by Smithy at 9:00 am on Feb. 9, 2007)February 9, 2007 at 09:12 #44030
Well not to offer a free bet @33/1 on KS would likely to mean someone somewhere thinks it can be done this year.
On Timeform ratings they would suggest that on the current mark KS would have won the last 24 runnings of The King George.(It became a level weight event in 1982). On this mark they calculate then that KS was 18lb better than Monets Garden and Racing Demon.<br>And that judgement was found to be correct.
The Haydock race was a 6 runner event and KS had an S.P. of 11/10.
The King George was a 9 runner race with at least 2 horses needing to have started an hour earlier to win.<br>The S.P. that day was 8/13.
Facing a likely payout then of Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£1 million and with your past experience what would you have judged the premium to be?February 9, 2007 at 09:21 #44033
What have Timeform ratings got to do with this?
The issue here is whether the shrewdies at Betfair would bother forking out 250k to insure against a 3/1 shot that statistically should be much higher.
I can’t have it.February 9, 2007 at 10:25 #44035
Smithy,<br>You have yet to state with your past experiance how you would have decided on a premium for insuring this event for the sponsors before the first leg.
<br>The shrewdies at betfair would surely patting themselves on the back given the current state of events.
<br>I think the 3/1 from the outset was a decent price as it was clear that there would not be many owners and trainers willing to take Ruby and KS on at Haydock and the KG at Kempton looked a ‘shoe in’ with the ground and race conditions in favour.
The man who is involved with Collins Stewart stockbrokers and has lots of horses told me the Best Mate event was definately covered by insurance.February 9, 2007 at 10:40 #44037
The odds of Kauto Star completing the KG/GC double prior to Kempton were bigger than 3/1 – if you think it was good business then fair play to you sir.February 9, 2007 at 10:41 #44038davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
Can’t understand what ‘shrewdies’ were taking 3/1 about the bonus being won after Hatdock when Kauto Star was still 6/4 for the King George at that stage and 4/1 for the Gold Cup.February 9, 2007 at 11:02 #44040
Just checked with one of the big 3 and Kauto Star was at least 12/1 to win the Betfair Million prior to the Haydock race.
This would presumably have been the starting point that underwriters would have used and although obviously Kauto Star was only one of a host of possible winners at the time, anything in excess of 15% would have looked excessive.February 9, 2007 at 11:07 #44043
Is this 250k policy alleged to have been placed prior to Haydock, or prior to Kempton?
This would obviously make a lot of difference.February 9, 2007 at 12:17 #44045wilsonlParticipant
- Total Posts 862
If it was prior to Haydock then it was stupidly expensive. KS wasn’t even thought of as a Gold Cup contender in most quarters at that point and there were no other obvious world beater out there.
Afterwards it’s completely different.
Still don’t think he’ll finish the race come March but…
LeeFebruary 10, 2007 at 10:38 #44048
Any news?February 10, 2007 at 11:04 #44051
Of course I am not privvy to the date the Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£1 million bonus was covered by insurance but I stand what was I was told by a far better source of information and contacts than most.<br>The subject came up in general chat at Fontwell Park.February 10, 2007 at 11:08 #44053
So despite the weight of evidence to the contrary, you maintain that Betfair have taken 3/1 about a minimum 10/1 shot to the tune of 250k?
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