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Jilly<br>Timeform list the top 6 best chasers as <br>Arkle 212<br>Flyingbolt 210<br>Mill House 191<br>Dessie 187<br>Dunkirk 186<br>Kauto Star 184
any probs with that assesment?
Seagull,
I am fully aware of how insurance – both bloodstock and this sort of thing works having worked in that industry.
For Betfair to pay 250k to save 750k seems bizarre in the extreme to me – particularly when they were prepared to offer 33s about Best Mate achieving such an eventuality.
<br>Kauto Star has won two of the three legs already and is still 6/4 to win the Gold Cup, yet you believe that it is a 3/1 shot to win the bonus from the outset?
<br>Incidentally, how many King George winners have gone on to win at Cheltenham three months later? Kicking King, Best Mate, Desert Orchid……..<br>
(Edited by Smithy at 9:00 am on Feb. 9, 2007)
Well not to offer a free bet @33/1 on KS would likely to mean someone somewhere thinks it can be done this year.
On Timeform ratings they would suggest that on the current mark KS would have won the last 24 runnings of The King George.(It became a level weight event in 1982). On this mark they calculate then that KS was 18lb better than Monets Garden and Racing Demon.<br>And that judgement was found to be correct.
The Haydock race was a 6 runner event and KS had an S.P. of 11/10.
The King George was a 9 runner race with at least 2 horses needing to have started an hour earlier to win.<br>The S.P. that day was 8/13.
Facing a likely payout then of £1 million and with your past experience what would you have judged the premium to be?
What have Timeform ratings got to do with this?
The issue here is whether the shrewdies at Betfair would bother forking out 250k to insure against a 3/1 shot that statistically should be much higher.
I can’t have it.
Smithy,<br>You have yet to state with your past experiance how you would have decided on a premium for insuring this event for the sponsors before the first leg.
<br>The shrewdies at betfair would surely patting themselves on the back given the current state of events.
<br>I think the 3/1 from the outset was a decent price as it was clear that there would not be many owners and trainers willing to take Ruby and KS on at Haydock and the KG at Kempton looked a ‘shoe in’ with the ground and race conditions in favour.
The man who is involved with Collins Stewart stockbrokers and has lots of horses told me the Best Mate event was definately covered by insurance.
The odds of Kauto Star completing the KG/GC double prior to Kempton were bigger than 3/1 – if you think it was good business then fair play to you sir.
Can’t understand what ‘shrewdies’ were taking 3/1 about the bonus being won after Hatdock when Kauto Star was still 6/4 for the King George at that stage and 4/1 for the Gold Cup.
Indeed DJ,
Just checked with one of the big 3 and Kauto Star was at least 12/1 to win the Betfair Million prior to the Haydock race.
This would presumably have been the starting point that underwriters would have used and although obviously Kauto Star was only one of a host of possible winners at the time, anything in excess of 15% would have looked excessive.
Seagull,
Is this 250k policy alleged to have been placed prior to Haydock, or prior to Kempton?
This would obviously make a lot of difference.
Exactly Smithy.
If it was prior to Haydock then it was stupidly expensive. KS wasn’t even thought of as a Gold Cup contender in most quarters at that point and there were no other obvious world beater out there.
Afterwards it’s completely different.
Still don’t think he’ll finish the race come March but…
Lee
Of course I am not privvy to the date the £1 million bonus was covered by insurance but I stand what was I was told by a far better source of information and contacts than most.<br>The subject came up in general chat at Fontwell Park.
So despite the weight of evidence to the contrary, you maintain that Betfair have taken 3/1 about a minimum 10/1 shot to the tune of 250k?
I have already stated I dont know what date this insurance was taken out.<br>So it is clear the ‘minnimum 10/1 quote’ are your words and not mine.<br>If it was just before Christmas it would have proved to be a prudent move and if anyone wanted to insure this risk this morning the cost would be even higher.<br>After Newbury today it could even be higher still.
As I have already stated the source of information concerning race horses especially with Paul Nichollls is far far better than most.<br>Despite your claim to have worked in the horse insurance industry and also insuring risks such as this you have failed to state what premium you would have charged after Haydock and before Kempton and also after Kempton with just the final leg to go.
<br>So you think what you like.
PS Smithy, I remember you as failing to take up my offer of a bet up to a £1,000 (which I was willing to deposit with the owners of this website) with you concerning the Brendan Duke stable making a level stake profit on the season a few years ago despite your rantings here that you would win you failed to come up with any stake.
To remind you in case you forgot you would have lost that one.;)
Quote: from Seagull on 11:55 am on Feb. 10, 2007[br]I have already stated I dont know what date this insurance was taken out.<br>So it is clear the ‘minnimum 10/1 quote’ are your words and not mine.<br>If it was just before Christmas it would have proved to be a prudent move and if anyone wanted to insure this risk this morning the cost would be even higher.<br>After Newbury today it could even be higher still.
As I have already stated the source of information concerning race horses especially with Paul Nichollls is far far better than most.<br>Despite your claim to have worked in the horse insurance industry and also insuring risks such as this you have failed to state what premium you would have charged after Haydock and before Kempton and also after Kempton with just the final leg to go.
<br>So you think what you like.
PS Smithy, I remember you as failing to take up my offer of a bet up to a £1,000 (which I was willing to deposit with the owners of this website) with you concerning the  Brendan Duke stable making a level stake profit on the season a few years ago despite your rantings here that you would win you failed to come up with any stake.
To remind you in case you forgot you would have lost that one.;) ÂÂÂ
As I have said, I would be amazed if, prior to Haydock, if a figure in excess of 15% (even that seems very high – 10% would have been my initial thought) would have been quoted.
I am thrilled for you that you know Andy Stewart – I really am – but if you come on here quoting figures of 250k, it would be nice to have some meat on the bones.
Am I imagining things or did McCoy say to Walsh after the race something along the lines of "I nearly got you that time" and then a 4 letter expletive afterwards? In all fairness McCoy must be fed up of seeing the back of Kauto Star – Exotic Dancer/ L’Ami etc.
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