- This topic has 104 replies, 33 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Kauto’s performance today worried me in 2 ways today, and i will definatly be taking him on in the gold cup.<br>1, racing down hill at cheltenham on faster ground will be the end of kauto’s chances if/when he does that ‘guessy flop'<br>2, maybe he reached his performance peak in the tingle creek and king george. looked magnificent before both those races. i know it was a muddling pace today, but surely that can be no excuse being as kauto has won over 2 miles already this season, and lami is hardly a speedy sort. for me this was a more performance, and i will be taking him on. the gold cup will be his 6th race of the campaign and i think he came to the boil too early.
I would like to see the sectional times for this race before I make up my mind. A good point dave about KS’s 2 mile speed which should have slaughtered L’Ami like before. Muddling pace and similar mistake at the business end when the pressure is on. Hmmmmmmm?
Still think KS will win the GC if he stands up but not a betting proposition for me.
I thought he actually jumped better than ever most of the way round today. This last fence thing is odd though…
Agree with Kevin re the GC.
The manner of victory wasn’t quite so awe-inspiring this afternoon, but I was still pretty impressed with Kauto Star’s performance.
He did jump with more fluency today, other than at the first and last fences, but pulled far too hard sitting off a sleep-inducing gallop. I don’t think they could have gone much slower if they had tried, and this was almost certainly to the detriment of the Nicholls horse. It can’t be forgotten either that L’Ami was in receipt of 10lb and was just beginning to lose his grip on the winner going into the last, before (the already well-discussed) untimely error.
I maintain that he’ll improve further for quicker ground, and the guaranteed racing pace he’ll get at Cheltenham should see him in good stead. The only doubt is to whether the 3m 2.5f trip is within range, but if Ruby is confident then that’s good enough for me.
Quicker ground would be a no no for me, quicker ground plus bigger field = Kauto Star making a few mistakes too many.
If he had made the mistakes he made in the KG and today at Cheltenham he would have been on the floor, those fences are very stiff, they won’t take much of that.
If he puts in a good round of jumping he should win, but i don’t think he will put in a good round especially with a quicker pace and more runners. Jumping has always seemed to be an issue for him and you can’t usually win a Gold Cup with an average jumper when the race is hotting up.
I would hazard a guess that 90% of horses who had made the mistakes Kauto Star made at both Kempton and Newbury, would have ended up on the deck.
The thing with Kauto is, as appalling as a couple of his jumps have been, he hasn’t actually looked like coming down. He adjusts himself following the error and comes back on the bridle/quickens up as if nothing has happened. Granted, it is harder to get away with that sort of thing at Cheltenham, but at a decent pace on good ground I have a feeling he’ll be something else entirely.
As good as he is though, the current price is ridiculous for a Gold Cup. As has been said, he is the most likely winner, but some sense has to come into betting and this year’s showpiece looks like a ‘watch and enjoy’ event.
- Total Posts 17716
<br> Even if you totally ignore the bad jumps, today’s performance was well below his previous runs this season, (Imo, of course), which is more of a worry than either fences or distance for Cheltenham.
I couldn’t back Kauto Star at Cheltenham not with his tendacy to boot one out of the ground AND with stamina unproven up that hill at the end of three and a quarter miles.
<br>Thought he’d win by further but having a battle for a change might be a good thing rather than just hacking in on the bridle as he has all season.
Immediately after the race I thought that Ruby should have kicked on turning in to put the race to bed as he did on the horses previous outings this season.
However, I’ve been thinking about Kauto’s jumping, and it appears to me that he only makes these mistakes when he sees daylight – Exeter Nov Ch – in front 3rd last, Tingle Creek – in front last fence, King George – upsides 4th last, in front last and Aon – in front last.
Maybe he will anyway because of stamina doubts but I definitely think that Ruby should keep hold of the horse’s head until after the last in the Gold Cup using his 2-mile speed to pounce on the run-in….
I’m not going to tell Ruby/PN how to ride but I might write to PN to bring this up.
Quote: from Stormont on 7:25 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]Quicker ground would be a no no for me, quicker ground plus bigger field = Kauto Star making a few mistakes too many.
If he had made the mistakes he made in the KG and today at Cheltenham he would have been on the floor, those fences are very stiff, they won’t take much of that.
If he puts in a good round of jumping he should win, but i don’t think he will put in a good round especially with a quicker pace and more runners. Jumping has always seemed to be an issue for him and you can’t usually win a Gold Cup with an average jumper when the race is hotting up.<br>
It is, I think, a myth that the Gold Cup provides a particulary severe jumping test – the likes of Dawn Run, Imperial Call, Master Oats and Mr Mulligan went into their Gold Cups after demonstrating alarming jumping frailties, but managed to cope when it mattered. Some with a similar history do not cope, Barton Bank for instance, and I suspect much depends on how the horse is settled and is ridden on the day, and whether the race unfolds in a suitable way.
Today confirms that i was right to lay KS last night for the GC-In my mostest humble opinion.The fact that many on here make excuses for his errant jumping brings me most joy-cheers :biggrin: <br>
Quote: from Kifill on 11:13 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]
Quote: from Stormont on 7:25 pm on Feb. 10, 2007[br]Quicker ground would be a no no for me, quicker ground plus bigger field = Kauto Star making a few mistakes too many.
If he had made the mistakes he made in the KG and today at Cheltenham he would have been on the floor, those fences are very stiff, they won’t take much of that.
If he puts in a good round of jumping he should win, but i don’t think he will put in a good round especially with a quicker pace and more runners. Jumping has always seemed to be an issue for him and you can’t usually win a Gold Cup with an average jumper when the race is hotting up.<br>
It is, I think, a myth that the Gold Cup provides a particulary severe jumping test – the likes of Dawn Run, Imperial Call, Master Oats and Mr Mulligan went into their Gold Cups after demonstrating alarming jumping frailties, but managed to cope when it mattered.  Some with a similar history do not cope, Barton Bank for instance, and I suspect much depends on how the horse is settled and is ridden on the day, and whether the race unfolds in a suitable way.<br>
I think that post is a complete myth, any race run at cheltenham much depends on the jumping, with such difficult fences which are also very stiff.
If this horse makes mistakes around Newbury where the fences are generally easy to jump, he has very little chance of getting around Cheltenham, especially when we still aren’t 100% sure the horse will stay 3mile 2 around a stiff track.
It concerned me yesterday that he also didn’t quicken away from a thorough stayer like L’ami, which to me, he should have done, especially when in my eyes Kauto looked the fitter horse out of the two.
On that ground, L’Ami is a decent horse and to give him 10lbs and beat him isn’t a negligible achievement by any means.
I think there’s some merit in what Kifill says. Add to his list the name of Take The Stand who gave Kicking King a real race two years back after making serious blunders at each of the first two fences. Nobody can be certain Kauto Star will jump round Cheltenham but even when he’s made mistakes this season he hasn’t looked much like falling and his supporters can take comfort from the fact that when he does make mistakes he finds plenty thereafter.
I don’t like being pessimistic, and hope I’m wrong (despite my bets agin him), but having just seen the replay, I fear for Kauto Star’s safety. He took off from too far back didn’t he? And at speed.
Of course the speed helped him plough through it, but the haste may not be quite matched by sufficient speed one day, and with the ground less soft, he could be injured.
Someone suggested, despite other apparent counter-indications – that the problem was that he didn’t stay so well, and maybe they’re right.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.