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You want to use Rip Van Winkle for a reason to lower STS rating but you seem to forget that Twice Over has lost 2 length to Zenyatta, a colt who was given a right pasting to Sea The Stars in the Eclipse, a horse who has never even beat Tartan Bearer.
With Twice Over performing well in the Classic shows that Sea The Stars rating cannot be dropped as it cant be elevated now after Rip Van Winkle flopping.
To be fair Rip Van Winkle surely never ran his race last night. Hopefully he will keep in training as he can clean up next year.
As I mentioned earlier, I was surprised at how wound up the horses seemed to be getting when in the saddling barn [amazing to see all that on the link, I might add]; given the lengths that Aidan O’Brien goes to to keep his horses calm before a race I wonder if it affected them in any way. Also the commentator mentioned that Mastercraftsman had hated the surface when going out on the track during the week. I also wonder if Murtagh is nowhere near as good a jockey at Santa Anita as elsewhere..has he ever worked in America like eg Dettori? However, all in all an amazing night and I’m still buzzing!
Surely it’s not always about what a horse has beaten or what they have achieved, but how you feel at that moment in time when you’re watching them..I mean, Dessie won the Gold Cup but, hey, he only beat Yahoo, didn’t he? But it’s still etched in most people’s memories.
Yahoo was a pretty decent horse on bad ground – probably as good as several horses who won Gold Cups. Desert Orchid was winning on ground which didn’t suit him and on a course where his record was poor. There were plenty of handicap performances that provided an indication that he was one of the greats.
Fist mentioned about avoiding talking about Sea The Stars but I don’t think you can because had Rip And Winkle and Mastercraftsman bolted up there would no doubt have been a clamour to elevate his rating.
There was talk about reassessing his rating after the Breeders Cup – presumably upwards? Surely the reverse can also happen? The subsequent efforts of Fame And Glory, Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle have done nothing to boost the rating. If there is a solid yardstick it is the very useful but clearly not brilliant Conduit. As I suggested at the time the Arc was his best performance and also the most solid race with which to rate Sea The Stars. The form of the Irish Champion has always looked dubious and the Eclipse form was never quite what it was cracked up to be with the likes of Rip Van Winkle/Conduit/Jukebox Jury all showing better form over different trips, Twice Over improving at the backend and Cima De Triomphe subsequently doing very little for the form.
Sea The Stars was the one outstanding 3yo but although you can give him a big plus his basic rating shouldn’t be above 133.
Ratings is by an large a complete folly system. To be accurate, they would need in scientific terms a series of tightly controlled experiments and an adequate set of replicates. Racing however is all about constantly changing conditions, the goalposts are always being moved and in addition in modern racing, you dont see them for too many races.
Two things do strike me however, Firstly horses like the mare last night, sts and zarkava (multiple consistent winners) never seem to win by big margins and the ratings system would always only be able to rate them on the oppostion. Secondly in any great triumph like last nights race, you can usually find a couple of horses somewhere near the front that you can use to crib the form.
People are obsessed about putting a number on a horse but its a crude system that makes often makes too many assumptions to be honest. Besides, how do you judge greatness anyway? It could mean something different to stilvi than it does to myself.
Overall, lets just say that its been a great year for racing in that we had two outstanding horses who got people interested outside of the sports bounderies. Im sad they wont be around next year.
SHL
I know this might seem contentious but, I happen to agree with John McCririck, when he told the American presenter that if the Breeder’s Cup was run in England, then the American horses wouldn’t be sighted.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
LOL@Himself.
Zenyatta would pulverise any British filly or colt of this generation; any French filly or colt; any Irish filly or colt (bar one); at Newmarket, Sandown, Ascot, Goodwood(oh, especially Goodwood); the Curragh, Leopardstown, Longchamp or Deauville; Flemington and Sandown, Australia for that matter.
You made a comment about STS which I’ve been smiling at for a month, but I forgave you because of the emotion of the Arc. I’m full of it at the moment. Here’s why.
Last night, I watched an unbeaten filly, in the last race of the day, a five million dollar race; detached by fifteen lengths, racing against colts for the first time, on the inside two out, behind a wall of horses and seemingly beaten – in running baldies laying seven to one and thinking it’s Christmas come early.
Then, as if by magic, Smith girds her loins, takes a pull, looks up, whispers in her ear, gives her a gentle tap which helps her find another gear and hey presto, Zenyatta goes past the gallant front runners like a knife slicing through hot butter. I’m on my desk at this point cheering like a madman. Minutes later I’m filling up like a little girl watching Bambi’s mother buy the farm.
58,000 Californians and most of Great Britain and Ireland reflecting immediately that they’ve seen something a bit special.
I couldn’t give two monkeys where she’s from, Himself. The good horses win anywhere.
No more impressive than Goldikova, who sat a similar distance behind her opponents, over a shorter trip and from the worst draw. That’s a change of style.
Zenyatta done fantastically well, there’s no denying that. I prefer to look at how the winner runs, as opposed to what she’s beat. It dosen’t deflect from the fact though, that RVW found absolutely nothing like most of the field, and she’s beaten Gio Ponti and Twice Over.
I saw nothing to suggest that Zenyatta could beat STS. You have to remmeber than STS has a superb temprement, and he would have bust out of that pack coming out that bend. That time was 1.3 second slower than last year.
Great performance though, and up there with Goldikova for performance of the BC.
detached by fifteen lengths
There are two ways of reading that. Either 15 lengths detached off the leader or 15 lengths behind the second-last horse during the race
That time was 1.3 second slower than last year.
Makes it all the more impressive IMO. Sprint finish and still produces what she produced. Incredible.
Most horses looked knackered, so the sprint finish was reduced to only Zenyatta finishing strongly. It’s all about opinions. This is the last i’m going to compare the winner to STS, because i know how annoying it is due to the vast majority of threads getting ruined by comparisons on here, almost immediately after every race. STS wouldn’t have got beat in that race due to his composure and ability to find more. Anyway, well done to Zenyatta because she deserved to win that with a very good performance.
The other problem with assessing Big Mac’s absurdist comments Himself, is that he wasn’t being serious; he was joining in the tiresome jingoistic banter which characterised last nights TV coverage (Was this the Breeders Cup, or the Ryder Cup?)
John is a big fan of US racing and the country itself. His comment was a tongue in cheek attempt at scooping the pot.
Granted, the likes of Quality Road, Colonel John, Richard’s Kid and Summer Bird (who was once the subject of some lively banter I enjoyed with Stephen Millar, about plodders), would struggle to win a mile flapper at Hawick but this is a poor year for three year old colts on both sides of the Atlantic and not a good year to take as a sample.
Second division horses like Fourstars Allstar, Hard Buck and Cannonball have acquitted themselves with credit over here and have we forgotten Jealous Again so soon?
I only wish we could regularly offer races of sufficient value to tempt more of the big guns over, the Dutrows, the Bafferts and the Billy Motts. That way we could really see.
Unfortunately, we race for pride and a handshake over here thanks to a saddening accident of history so therefore, comments about American horses over here tend to be untestable and subject to a person’s particular pre-existing bias.
I tried explaining before the event that some of our lesser lights perform to a higer level across the pond, and vice-verse.
Their style of racing is different to ours and some horses are better suited by it.
Conversely, some our classier horses aren’t suited by it. Rip Van Winkle will never win a Breeders’ Cup Classic and, whilst he could defeat the likes of Goldikova in France, England or Ireland, I don’t think he could get anywhere near her on those tight American tracks in a BC Mile.
Max made a great point about their inferior talent coming over to Royal Ascot and winning our races. Don’t forget, if it wasn’t for Art Connoisseur, Cannonball would have walked away with one of our most presigious sprinting events last season.
Zenyatta could not give a high class field fifteen lengths at, say, Newmarket and do what she did yesterday. No chance.
The International at York? The Irish Champion at Leopardstown? She could compete, and beat, the very best we have to offer in those races if handling the turf and looking at her action, you’d think it wouldn’t be a problem.
We only have a handful of middle distance races that could entice the American’s. The afforementioned two, held on fair, left-handed tracks, could be of interest if they were invited and encouraged over here.
Of course, Zenyatta is now retired, but one horse that could quite easily compete in our best races is the runner-up, Gio Ponti.
Winner of four Grade Ones coming into yeaterdays race, including the coveted Arlington Million and Man O’War Stakes.
I would do everything possible to get him over here.
The other problem with assessing Big Mac’s absurdist comments Himself, is that he wasn’t being serious; he was joining in the tiresome jingoistic banter which characterised last nights TV coverage (Was this the Breeders Cup, or the Ryder Cup?)
I beg to differ. Having watched, read and listened to John McCririck’s " pearls of wisdom " over the decades, I sure hope I am now capable of discerning and differentiating between his tongue ‘n cheek banter and his serious remarks.
I am in no way jingoistic, and fully appreciate the equine merits of a Man O’ War, Whirlaway, Citation, Secretariat, John Henry, Dr. Fager, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Ruffian or a Zenyatta ( great champions all ), but I am firmly of the opinion that if the modern day American thoroughbred had to run on a right handed course such as Ascot ( without Lasix or Bute ), where the European horses and jockeys would have a distinct advantage, then the European win ratio would be much higher.
Tom Rolfe, the Preakness Stakes and American Derby winner ( and also 3yo horse of the year in the states in 65 ), was sent over to contest the Arc that year – in the hope that some French upstart called Sea Bird II (
) would be put firmly in his place. He trailed in sixth, beaten over 20 lengths.What it illustrates is that horses ( even the very good ones) when taken out of their comfort zone ( see Dancing Brave for details
) can and often do encounter defeat.McCririck, if you can read body language correctly, was in this occasion, putting forward an honest and genuinely considered opinion – if, I concede, in his usual bombastic McCririck way.
Would Zenyatta have seen off Sea The Stars in such a fashion ? We’ll never know – but having taken 7/2 about Zenyatta winning earlier that day, I wouldn’t have put a penny on her had John Oxx’s superstar turned up for the show.
Debate and differences of opinion are by and large healthy bedfellows, don’t you agree ?
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I was amazed at her size. She made Twice over look like a Shetland.
I cant help but feel that we were denied a race of a lifetime. Personally, I think STS would beat her. He would be long gone by the time she had got through the pack but if she did catch him he would find more like he did with RVW. Its such a shame we didnt get to see the contest
The other problem with assessing Big Mac’s absurdist comments Himself, is that he wasn’t being serious; he was joining in the tiresome jingoistic banter which characterised last nights TV coverage (Was this the Breeders Cup, or the Ryder Cup?)
John is a big fan of US racing and the country itself. His comment was a tongue in cheek attempt at scooping the pot.
Granted, the likes of Quality Road, Colonel John, Richard’s Kid and Summer Bird (who was once the subject of some lively banter I enjoyed with Stephen Millar, about plodders), would struggle to win a mile flapper at Hawick but this is a poor year for three year old colts on both sides of the Atlantic and not a good year to take as a sample.
Second division horses like Fourstars Allstar, Hard Buck and Cannonball have acquitted themselves with credit over here and have we forgotten Jealous Again so soon?
I only wish we could regularly offer races of sufficient value to tempt more of the big guns over, the Dutrows, the Bafferts and the Billy Motts. That way we could really see.
Unfortunately, we race for pride and a handshake over here thanks to a saddening accident of history so therefore, comments about American horses over here tend to be untestable and subject to a person’s particular pre-existing bias.
1) You would not get Dutrow over there and honestly, you don’t want him. He’s a tool. Sorry I just come from the area he got his start and he’s just keeps opening his mouth and all the wrong stuff comes out. On the telecast, they did a segment where they asked people how they feel when they hear the bugler announcing the horses to the track and he says, "I don’t like it. It scares some of my horses." What? They have been doing that since the begining of races with horses. Get over it! UGH…
2) Perhaps if we ran more races with some pride and a handshake here (we see that a lot in our steeplechasing atmosphere) then maybe we wouldn’t end up with as many buttheads as we do in racing. But I get where you’re going with the comment. LOLOL ;D
3) I think it’s not so much that the 3yos are not all that good is that they are decent and the older horses are absolutely not holding up their end of the bargain. We don’t have a clear division leader here. I want so much for Gio Ponti to win it and in any other year he would not be considered because he’s a grass horse. Summer Bird looked a lot like Curlin did last year. Spinning his wheels. He finished 4th on class alone as he passed several horses on this surface (most older horses) who have been raicing in grade one competition out there all year.
My only wish would have been to have Sea The Stars and Rachel Alexandra this year and let the cards fall where they may. But it was not to be. Both of them deserve the accolades. Both deserve championships and both will go down in history as brilliant racehorses. No doubt will be talked about for a very, very long time. As will Goldikova and Zenyatta. The sad thing is, when you look at the horses who have repeated in the BC I feel Conduit will get lost behind Miesque, Lure, Tiznow, Goldikova and Midnight Lute. High Chapparal is not mentioned much either and he should be. It’s a feat that is not easy to do.
There’s no denying that Zenyatta is a talented mare, but with Rip Van Winkle running no sort of race the form ultimately has very little substance. Or, at the very least, it merely proves her to be top class rather than anything mouth-wateringly special.
Gio Ponti and Twice Over are certainly not devoid of ability, but they were close enough throughout the final furlong to ensure that the winner couldn’t afford to take things easy. Indeed, I don’t think she’s won half as comfortably as some seem to be suggesting and, on a line through Summer Bird, Rachel Alexandra would appear to be in a completely different league.
I think far too much is being made of how Zenyatta runs, her come-from-behind style serving to elevate her in the estimations of some. In reality it’s just her way of winning races and offering any grade of horse that sort of lead is not necessarily a pre-cursor to superstardom. She’s made up no more ground on the pace horses than Conduit had to in the Turf and I don’t see anyone heaping similarly lavish praise upon him.
If we are to believe that winning Grade One races from so far behind is sufficient to label a horse special, then the inverse of that argument must also be true; namely that winning Grade One races having gone off so quickly as to establish such a lead is worthy of equal merit. Presious Passion might not have beaten Conduit, but he wasn’t far away and still maintained a distinct advantage over Dar Re Mi. And, unless I’m mistaken, he’s been tagged as nothing more than ‘very good’.
I understand how easy it is to get caught up in the glamour of races such as this, especially when they’re won by an undefeated and charismatic mare, but Zenyatta has done nothing to confirm herself as even the best female in the US, let alone of all time.
Fair rationale, Media Gecko.
However, If I saw a horse front run in a Breeders Cup Classic, open up a 15 length lead and still win by a couple of lengths, I would be as equally impressed as I was by Zenyatta’s come-from-behind explosion.
Zip
Himself, if I’m ever up in your part of the world, I’ll have a dram or two with you and compare the generations into the night. As usual, you make me think. Great response.
Alysheba, I said to Stephen Millar that Summer Bird could win the Ascot Gold Cup over 2m 4f. Rice ought to bring him over because the horse is all about stamina as you allude to. Ascot have a track record of paying expenses too (Ken McPeek and Hard Buck). Fancy contacting him?
But overall, I disagree with you about the merits of the generation. Up till Zenyatta last night I’ve despaired over this flat season, the worst in my memory – I’d been considering switching codes to the jumps until Zenyatta reminded me that for sheer blood tingling, tear-jerking, pulse-punding, wood-inspiring excitement, you can’t beat top quality flat racing.
- Total Posts 17716
The other problem with assessing Big Mac’s absurdist comments Himself, is that he wasn’t being serious; he was joining in the tiresome jingoistic banter which characterised last nights TV coverage (Was this the Breeders Cup, or the Ryder Cup?)
I beg to differ. Having watched, read and listened to John McCririck’s " pearls of wisdom " over the decades, I sure hope I am now capable of discerning and differentiating between his tongue ‘n cheek banter and his serious remarks.
I am in no way jingoistic, and fully appreciate the equine merits of a Man O’ War, Whirlaway, Citation, Secretariat, John Henry, Dr. Fager, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Ruffian or a Zenyatta ( great champions all ), but I am firmly of the opinion that if the modern day American thoroughbred had to run on a right handed course such as Ascot ( without Lasix or Bute ), where the European horses and jockeys would have a distinct advantage, then the European win ratio would be much higher.
Tom Rolfe, the Preakness Stakes and American Derby winner ( and also 3yo horse of the year in the states in 65 ), was sent over to contest the Arc that year – in the hope that some French upstart called Sea Bird II (
) would be put firmly in his place. He trailed in sixth, beaten over 20 lengths.What it illustrates is that horses ( even the very good ones) when taken out of their comfort zone ( see Dancing Brave for details
) can and often do encounter defeat.McCririck, if you can read body language correctly, was in this occasion, putting forward an honest and genuinely considered opinion – if, I concede, in his usual bombastic McCririck way.
Would Zenyatta have seen off Sea The Stars in such a fashion ? We’ll never know – but having taken 7/2 about Zenyatta winning earlier that day, I wouldn’t have put a penny on her had John Oxx’s superstar turned up for the show.
Debate and differences of opinion are by and large healthy bedfellows, don’t you agree ?
No!
We’re brainwashed here into thinking we’re better and there lies the problem.
Like you and I have often said Sea Bird II was the greatest racehorse of out time but was he?
Little place called America usually never comes into my mind when talking horses.They don’t count
but if they did then I would have to say Secretariat is the greatest horse of all time, which he probably was BTW.In this case though with the aid of videos/live racing it’s a bigger world now and I’ve seen every race Zenyatta has run. Nothing will convince me Sea the Stars would have beaten her, she like a bigger stronger and probably faster version of Zarkava…..best filly I ever saw and I know now why Rachael stayed home.
) would be put firmly in his place. He trailed in sixth, beaten over 20 lengths.
) can and often do encounter defeat.
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