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If it’s not illogical – then it is very optimistic., or naive.<br>Name any GP 1 race for 3-y-o’s over a near or similar trip PRIOR to the Derby?<br>If you can’t, then why do you think the Derby should have lots?<br>
(Edited by insomniac at 1:45 pm on June 3, 2007)
I give up EW, lol. Why not just say that if we were to use the Empty Wallet definition of top class, i.e group1 winners in the field, then the Derby was NOT top class?
Thankfully most people are shrewder than this otherwise there will have hardly been a top class performance in the history of racing by any 2yo through June of his 3yo career.
Strictly on the form book ( taking a line through Eagle Mountain) you would not rate Authorized that much higher than Cockney Rebel. I use 2lb a length over a mile and that means Cockney Rebel gave Eagle Mountain a 6lb beating whereas Authorized gave Eagle Mountain ( at 1.5lb a length over 12f) a 7lb beating and the thought was that Eagle Mountain might have got closer with a clearer run.
Nevertheless I would be suprised if Authorized is not rated higher by Timeform perhaps with a big"P" or at least a + just on the manner of the win.
If anyone gets the Timeform rating of Authorized I would be delighted if they would post it.
EW – I’m not knocking or extolling any particular horse.<br>You use the quite logical method of time analysis to gauge the merit of a performance – no argument there.<br>If, after the Arc say, you qualified your assessment by saying the field wasn’t much cop because there were few proven GP1 winners in the field, then I’d buy that too.<br>But June 2nd, a race over 12f for 3-y-o’s only , (and with a 10f GP1 race in France the next day), come on! Why do you expect the Derby to be gilded with GP1 winners?<br>If you don’t (for the reasons I and others have outlined), why use this basis to qualify your assessment of the race?<br>Granted, many years ago, when the Derby was THE 3-y-o prize, one might have expected one or two more 2,000 gns winner to automatically head to Epsom, but those days are gone now: a 2,000gns winner’s value is not automatically enhanced by running (and winning) the Derby, so even that conduit for a GP1 runner at Epsom has reduced.
These are my figures going into the race, listed in the eventual finishing order, of the first ten home. They were six lengths and more clear of eased-off beaten runners :
Authorized 120+<br>Eagle Mountain 117<br>Aqaleem 113<br>Lucarno 117+ (119?)<br>Soldier Of Fortune 111+<br>Salford Mill 108<br>Kid Mambo 107<br>Yellowstone 122?<br>Acapulco 105<br>Admiralofthefleet 121
If we take 66/1 shot Acapulco – no real chance on form – as having run to his rating, it puts Authorized on 125, which immediately has a ‘right’ feel to it. It also ups Eagle Mountain (by 1lb), Aqaleem (+2) Soldier Of Fortune (+3), Salford Mill (+5) and Kid Mambo (+4) on previous form.
On the other hand, it brings down a few: Lucarno (by 2lbs), Yellowstone (-12) and Admiralofthefleet (-16).
Reading the race comments, it’s possible Yellowstone was ridden to get the trip and Admiralofthefleet has clearly underperformed.
Where does that leave us regarding Lucarno? His 119? was based on the very fast time of his seasonal debut behind Diamond Tycoon, possibly misleading, but his 117+ was his run just seven days back. Steve Miller (dosage guru) had him down as likely to find the Derby trip his optimum. Compare his race position with Soldier Of Fortune and Aqaleem, who all raced prominently and occupied fourth, fifth and sixth positions respectively entering the straight and have raced home together, with Aqaleem crossing the line just ahead.
These three are probably the key to overall pace of the race. Salford Mill and Eagle Mountain both came from well back and Authorized wasn’t far in front of them at halfway. Kid Mambo made the running and kicked on early in the straight before weakening to finish not far behind Salford Mill. He is probably better than his finishing position and will be of interest this summer as he still managed to improve on his previous best.
If we credit Lucarno with his rating from last week, arrived at via the apparently consistent Hearthstead Maison, it puts Authorized up to 127 (and the others up 2lbs as well). The difficulty with that is that it also puts the 94-rated (on ORs) Supersonic Dave on 110, therefore I would query the reliability of the figure at least in the short term.
Taking all of this into account, I am leaning towards the original assessment (via Acapulco) but I believe Authorized is better than the bare form (dwelt at the start and was further back than ideal yet still won with something to spare) so I’m very easy about awarding him a ‘+’.
So, my provisional ratings for the first ten home are now:
Authorized 125+<br>Eagle Mountain 118<br>Aqaleem 115<br>Lucarno 115<br>Soldier Of Fortune 114<br>Salford Mill 113<br>Kid Mambo 111+<br>Yellowstone 110<br>Acapulco 105<br>Admiralofthefleet 105
Once I get the form book and can examine the other races for time comparisons, I might tweak these figures a bit.
Given that I expected Archipenko to get close to 130 it will be very interesting to see them clash later in the year.<br>
(Edited by Maurice at 2:37 pm on June 3, 2007)
EW, I do apologise if you feel I insulted you. It wasn’t the intention. I have always respected your time figures and assessments but will just have to agree to disagree on your proclamation that a race CANNOT be top class if it doesn’t have proven G1 winners in the field, especially when very few have had the opportunity to put one on their cv.
Cheers.
I think you can put this to bed EW. The problem here is perhaps your phrasing. You chose to use the Jackane style of making your assessment final and factual…ie, the race was not top class, full stop.
Did you actually mean that based on the race alone we couldn’t rate it top class yet? That way if horses from this race were to go out and prove themselves G1 animals you could look back, reflect and say "yep, in hindsight that was a top class derby".
If that were the case then I believe the majority in here would agree with you.
Not a Frankie fan however awesome performance from horse, trainer and jockey.
At last a Derby winner we can be proud of and look forward to seeing out again.
Can’t wait to see him taking on the older horses.
Fair Enough Empty.<br>Keep on posting here, always read your comments with interest. It would be a boring game if we all agreed on everything.
RPR have given Authorized 130 which (with High Chaparral) the highest Derby winning rating since Generous in 1991. They’ve added a + though as well which indicates that they obviously think Authorized is almost certainly capable of better which I agree with as he travelled so well all the way round and won exactly as he liked.
I give him 127+ for what its worth but then I’m always stingy with my ratings ;).
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