- This topic has 156 replies, 39 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 12 months ago by
.
- Posts
Quote: from Flash on 4:42 pm on June 2, 2007[br]I’d bet my life he’s better than Motivator.
What was your view of Motivator at 4.42 pm on Derby Day 2005, Flash?
Thinking about it a bit more, if it was not for the time, you’d probably conclude it wasn’t much better than Sir Percy.s
Why?
Last year’s race was a blanket finish which included some horses that weren’t regarded as very good.
This year was a clear victory and the placed horses were 3rd & 4th in the betting.
(2nd fave clearly boiled over before the race and finished last)
So, I’d say the form (however good or bad it is) looks like it’s going to hold up.
I certainly didn’t think that of last year’s race.
Steve
Quote: from empty wallet on 12:14 pm on June 3, 2007[br]The time is only thing that gives Authorozed’s performance any merit.
I think it stands up on form as well if you accept Eagle Mountain gave his running yesterday and I do. He’s about half a stone off real top class as shown by his runs in the RP Trophy and the Guineas.
<br>
at it <br>No G1, no Guineas winners, dilutes the form whichever way you look
<br>Thats absolute nonsense.
I think you will find that very few derby’s (if any) have been stuffed with grp one winners. There simply arent the opportunties at this stage.
The presence of a gunieas winner is neither here nor there. Most guineas winners will not stay. Simple as that
EW – the very nature of the racing programme and fixture list makes it extremely unlikely that GP1 winners will abound in a One and a half mile 3-y-o only race in the first week in June. Surely you can see that.<br>By all means crib a Derby winner by virtue of its performance or time – I’m in agreement with you on that. But you can’t realistically crib a Derby winner on the grounds that there were few, if any GP1 winners in the field. The very nature and timing of the race makes this unlikely. The fact that a 2,000 guineas winner didn’t make the field is hardly surprising. If Cockney Rebel had run in the Derby and got stuffed, would that have increased the standing of Authorized ? Hardly. It would just have resulted in people saying "he didn’t beat any GP1 winners apart from one that patently didn’t stay." <br>Was Erhaab’s Derby above criticism because of Mister Bailey’s participation ?<br> You’re right to try and assess by time but not, in the Derby’s case, by the number of GP1’s in the field.<br>To do so is an extension of saying The Racing Post Trophy was naff because GP1’s weren’t in abundance. Staying bred 3-y-o’s have NO GP1 opportunities over a comparable trip until the Derby itself. <br>A top class performance doesn’t necessarily rely on a horse beating previous GP1 winners – especially when those in opposition have had very limited opportunities to compete at suitable trips prior to the race. The time to slag a Derby winner off is when enough of the season has gone by without his beaten peers winning anything of note, or if he himself does nowt afterwards, not the day after the race itself.
(Edited by insomniac at 12:41 pm on June 3, 2007)<br>
(Edited by insomniac at 12:42 pm on June 3, 2007)
EW, you’re right in that the time makes the performance look good. However, you’re saying:-
" If there were G1 winners, 2nd and 3rd, everyone would be shouting from the roof tops "TOP class form" and seeing there are none, it can’t be "TOP class" can it "
which is patently wrong. You can’t state that till you see how the rest of the season pans out. Noone said that having a race with no Gp1 winners is better than one without…..you have chosen to assume people were implying that. All Clive etc said was that there was little chance of there being any due to the fixtures….and they are quite right!<br>
Hypothetical situations don’t interest me too much. Neither of those horses showed up. Only time will tell how good a derby this was but I feel, and hope, that Authorised will turn out to be one of the better ones.
EW – I don’t think anyone’s in disagreement with you re. judging a Derby winner on its time. But criticism because of lack of GP1 winners in the field is just plain illogical.<br>Name all the GP1 races for3 y-o’s before the first week in June that one might reasonably expect a horse with a 1.5mile pedigree to run in. <br>One can be sceptical about the form of an Eclipse, Arc, King George and, to a lesser extent the Irish Derby, if there are no GP1’s in the field – but the Derby? Come on!<br>How do you judge Brocklesby and Wood Ditton Stakes winners?
I’m not getting carried away in the slightest, but at the same time let’s not conclude that it couldn’t be top class due to the lack of Gp1 winners in the field…….eh?;)
stevedvg
<br> <br>Classic Winner <br>——————————————————————————–<br>Bulwark
Your original boast was:
——————————————————————————–<br>THE WINTER BANKER BET COMES UP TRUMPS<br>——————————————————————————–
Yet, you’ve admitted that it was really a "safety bet" to back up Teofilo.
Now, I don’t know your definition of a "banker", but …
<br>Well the winter banker was that either teofilo or authorized would win the derby, and now going by my mathematics, due to the fact that I stood to make a hell of a lot more from authorized winning than teofilo to the extent that teofilo was only really covering authorized I would say that teofilo was the safety bet but hey…
<br>guskennedy Posted on 9:42 am on June 3, 2007
——————————————————————————–<br>Quote: from Bulwark on 5:41 pm on June 2, 2007<br>I took some stick on here last year when I tried to drill it into everyone on here that either teofilo or authorized would "almost certainly" win the derby, and that makes it even better…<br>——————————————————————————–
A lot of the stick was from me and I stand by what I said. Use of the phrase "almost certainly" about an event seven months away is ridiculous and the fact that you’ve won money on this occasion doesn’t alter that. You’ll lose in the long-term unless you learn how to evaluate probability accurately.
Congratulations on backing a winner and welcome back. Would we have heard from you again on this forum if Authorized hadn’t won yesterday?
To me it was never really in much doubt that one of those two would win, I realise what your saying Gus as this what tends to happen most years and it is very seldom that I would be that sure of one from 7 months of but having followed the montjeus and galileos for the last two years I have developed a lot of faith in the abilities of the best ones, and with two 2yos like that you were almost guaranteed a great derby, I think the odds were heavily stacked against anything progressing past them two, and was extremely confident the progression would come. <br>I dont know if I’d have been back, this is the only forum I can get on in work and I do look on here occasionally out of boredom but Im only really into horseracing for the buzz, the money, and the love of the sport, and I found when I was on here I was wasting studying time arguing with people and replying to rubbish (see top quote) and I didnt really actually stand to gain anything from being on here. There are several people on here that people who are new to the sport can learn a lot off if they listen… May drop the occasional reply…
It is illogical to expect a Gp1 1.5 mile 3-y-o only race on the 1st weekend in June to contain too many previous GP1 winners.<br>If the race were in September, may’be not.<br>If the race was over. say 9f, then maybe not.<br>If all the Classic trials in April and May were Group1’s, then maybe not. But none of these conditions apply, therefore it is illogical to expect anything other than a Derby with a modest previous GP1 winning history.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.