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stevedvg Posted on 7:04 pm on June 2, 2007 <br>The links not been adjusted since last october
<br>Too bad, because it meant you were on record as tipping Toefilo and your claims to the contrary look like aftertiming.
<br>had teofilo at 25s, way last summer and as I wasn t backing him at 3s over the winter I was on authorized at 12s and 10s all winter, making teofilo my safety bet,
So it was a "Safety bet", not a "winter banker".
"Aftertimer", not "tipster".
Steve
Lol – Theres some short memories on here, not only was I the first to tip Authorized for the racing post trophy but did I, or did I not say that if Authorized and Teofilo stayed fit (see link below) that it was almost certain to win the derby, and that both would be up to high 120/130 ratings. Also, on the same thread, I said that despite the common perception, Scorpion was a very good 1m4f horse, which was also questioned by those who thought of him as a typical weak leger horse. I had teofilo backed £10 at 25-1 and because I wasnt going to back a horse I had at 25s at 3s I just backed Authorized at 12s for £110 and £25 at 10s, meaning I was making a profit either way. Still, I suppose it must be aftertiming if you dont choose to give people weekly reminders of something which to me was blindingly obvious all along, it was always going to be one of those two. Nevertheless I aint fussed whether you call it aftertiming or not, Ive made enough money of it and anyone that didnt, tough luck- thats horseracing.
https://theracingforum.co.uk/cgi-bin … 43&start=0
<br>reet hard Posted on 6:22 pm on June 2, 2007
——————————————————————————–<br>Quote: from Bulwark on 5:41 pm on June 2, 2007
I took some stick on here last year when I tried to drill it into everyone on here that either teofilo or authorized would "almost certainly" win the derby, and that makes it even better…
Brilliant…..
——————————————————————————–
Was that the same time you told us that Sergeant Cecil was best at 14f, and that Bulwark was the better horse over 2m+???
<br>I still reckon Sgt Cecil is at his best at 1m6f, (hes never really impressed me in any race above and beyond that) and Ive already backed bulwark e/w for the ascot gold cup at 50/1 (which is his current price), his 2l 3rd to Sgt Cecil at york looked like a big improvement on last years form, and I still think hes a better out and out stayer, why dont you back Sgt Cecil at 6-1 and we’ll see who makes more profit.
<br>
Does indeed look an exceptionally good time (and a very good performance in terms of form).
What’s wrong with the best of this classic crop – no matter how I try, I can’t really find fault with them?!
Quote: from Prufrock on 11:59 pm on June 2, 2007[br]Does indeed look an exceptionally good time (and a very good performance in terms of form).
What’s wrong with the best of this classic crop – no matter how I try, I can’t really find fault with them?!
<br>Yet I’ve read other opinons stating that this years crop of three year olds are no good.
For what its with I think all the classic winners are solid.
Quote: from aphardy on 10:15 pm on June 2, 2007[br]Just so that I can get this in before he takes on his elders – what has he actually beat? By all accounts beforehand, Aqaleem was a poor horse who’d won a poor trial, none of O’Brien’s 8 were any good – Archipenko was 2nd favourite and he was beaten by the rag Leander!
No, this form is useless. As Derby form always is.
(By the way I have hit the sarcasm font for this post)<br>
I never said that the form was useless. I merely said that cutting thru a bog standard Derby field like butter doesn’t make the horse a superstar … yet. It could be claimed that Eagle Mountain is the better horse as he was catching the winner in the final furlong, but merely left it too late. Anyone remember Oratorio? Finished last in the Derby and proved to be the best of his year at 10 – 12f.<br>The Derby doesn’t mean jack in the grand scheme of things, as it isn’t half the race it used to be. Motivator, that ‘superstar’ that stuffed Oratorio in the Derby, and never won another race, springs to mind. <br>Beating your own generation is easy if the competition is weak, and you like Epsom. Lots of horses don’t like Epsom. Let’s see him do that to any decent 4yo on a flat track, and i’ll change my opinion. I think the 127 quoted earlier is probably a few lbs too high. 124 is about right at the moment.
The Derby doesn’t mean jack in the grand scheme of things, as it isn’t half the race it used to be. Motivator, that ‘superstar’ that stuffed Oratorio in the Derby, and never won another race, springs to mind. <br>Beating your own generation is easy if the competition is weak, and you like Epsom. Lots of horses don’t like Epsom. Let’s see him do that to any decent 4yo on a flat track, and i’ll change my opinion. I think the 127 quoted earlier is probably a few lbs too high. 124 is about right at the moment.<br>Yes Motivator won one of the poorest Derbys in living memory, but just because he never won another race doesn’t make him a bad Derby winner, by finishing a close second in the Irish Champion, he had Alexander Goldrun & Azamour behind both top class performers, and his 5th in the Arc was a pretty decent run as he was in front with a furlong to go, but still had plenty of top class performers behind, Pride springs to mind, even though Motivator romped the Derby I think 10 furlongs was his best trip.<br>As for Authorised, its not what he beat but the manner of victory, I would be very surprised if this horse doesn’t turn out to be a superstar, bring on the older horses !.
(Edited by madman marz at 4:54 am on June 3, 2007)
Agreed marz, it was the manner of his Derby win (as well as his Dante win) that mark him as a potential superstar.<br>Whilst it’s true that many (perhaps most) Derby winners go on to disappoint, and perhaps the race doesn’t have the cache it once did, that doesn’t mean to say winners are automatically poor and inferior to previous generations.<br>Every year at about this time (well, from April to this time ), the British racegoer hears the annual cuckoo-like cry of the "poor crop of 3-y-o’s" moaners. It really is a pointless whine UNTIL they’ve had a chance to compete against the older horses. Until then, such cries should be stifled – it’s a pointless argument . Maybe Authorized won’t be anything really special – but why crib him (and his peers)now? Surely no one can really know until later on. <br>There were probably people who didn’t rate Shergar, Mill Reef etc at the time of their Derby wins.
A Topspeed rating of 128, which means his RPR should be about the same. This looks about right using the second and/or third as markers.
Authorised has improved his RP rating from the Dante(121), where he won very comfortably and wasn’t extended. In the Derby, he still won easily, but was ridden more vigorously – just to make sure, as Frankie said.
He is a very, very good horse, and will be hard to beat wherever he goes, and whatever the ground. ÂÂÂ
(Edited by Artemis at 9:08 am on June 3, 2007)
Bulwark
Your original boast was:
THE WINTER BANKER BET COMES UP TRUMPS
Yet, you’ve admitted that it was really a "safety bet" to back up Teofilo.
Now, I don’t know your definition of a "banker", but …<br>
Quote: from Bulwark on 5:41 pm on June 2, 2007[br]I took some stick on here last year when I tried to drill it into everyone on here that either teofilo or authorized would "almost certainly" win the derby, and that makes it even better…
A lot of the stick was from me and I stand by what I said. Use of the phrase "almost certainly" about an event seven months away is ridiculous and the fact that you’ve won money on this occasion doesn’t alter that. You’ll lose in the long-term unless you learn how to evaluate probability accurately.
Congratulations on backing a winner and welcome back. Would we have heard from you again on this forum if Authorized hadn’t won yesterday?
Quote: from Prufrock on 11:59 pm on June 2, 2007[br]Does indeed look an exceptionally good time (and a very good performance in terms of form).
What’s wrong with the best of this classic crop – no matter how I try, I can’t really find fault with them?!<br>
Agreed. I rate Authorized’s time performance a minimum 129 and a maximum 131. I’d be comfortable with the higher figure which fits in nicely with all the other races on the card if it weren’t for the time of the Woodcote. The going allowance which produces the 131 figure gives a figure for the Woodcote which is slightly on the high side of what I’d expect although it’s hard to be too dogmatic with lightly-raced two year olds.
They certainly look a good Classic crop from a form and time perspective.
Quote: from empty wallet on 11:01 am on June 3, 2007[br]If my maths are correct , Derby winner has run about 35lbs better than the 88 rated handicap winner over same CD
46 lbs better on my figures, EW. He needed to because the later race was visibly a slowly-run race and the time confirmed it.
Quote: from empty wallet on 11:34 am on June 3, 2007[br]Does your figure include WFA Gus?
Yes, 16lbs at this time of year.
Empty Wallet<br>It’s hardly surprising that the first One and half mile colts classic has few Group 1 winners it. Most potential Derby winners if they do run in Group 1’s at 2 will be running in the same few GP1s. And how many Group 1’s for 3-y-o’s <br> prior to the Derby are there for the more stoutly bred ?.<br> It is therefore only logic to expect there to be few Gp 1 winners in the Derby. Why are you surprised at this?<br>Did you really expect a 1 and a half mile race in the first week of June to be choc full of GP 1 winners? <br>Make the Dante, Chester Vase, Lingfield Derby Trial, Dee Stakes , Glasgow Stakes, Predominate (and their Irish equivalents) etc. Group 1 races and you might just get it. Or – alternatively – run the Derby AFTER the Leger and the Arc and you might get it too.<br>To use the lack of Gp1 winners to in the field to "diminish" the merit of a Derby winners performance is simply wrong.
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