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Did Timeform not get their knickers in a twist over another wide-margin winner of the Derby a couple of years ago?
Prufrock,
I agree with you and try and keep my private handicap as objective and systematic as I can. But here we have TF raising his rating 11lbs to 132, the racing post raising hime 10lbs to 130 and the OR raising him 8lbs to 126. I stick to my own method which through Eagle Mountain gives him a rating of 126. Timeform have had to raise their own rating of Eagle Mountain 6lbs which is quite a stretch in the light of the run he got coming so late from the back.
Old racing maxim: rate horses on races rather races on horses.
It makes more sense in most instances to view a horse’s form in the context of its 16 (or whatever) rivals than to rate the entire race on the assumption that one horse has run to form.
Smithy, please explain "knickers in twist". I like the sound of it. :biggrin:
MOTIVATOR, provided his noticeably nervy disposition holds, has the world as his oyster and, given the chance, will be a fascinating runner against a strong (if not outstanding) collection of older horses in the Eclipse at Sandown, though the Irish Derby is also under consideration; come the hour, he overcame pre-race exuberance to trounce his rivals in breathtaking style, treating them in a manner rarely seen in any good classic field, let alone one for the Derby; soon close up, travelling freely under restraint, he was still full of running turning for home, his rider biding his time; given the office at the 2f pole, he settled matters in style, powering away magnificently, surprisingly showing no signs of the meanderings which had been evident previously, Epsom’s almost unique gradients appearing to help keep him balanced!; beforehand, he looked in superb shape (2 handlers), hardly turning a hair, though once sent to post did seem in danger of boiling over (ninth to post, first to reach the start, where taken away from others), getting on his toes and sweating freely; these characteristics are beginning to look typical of those sired by Montjeu, who coupled with rare brilliance had a quirk or 2 himself; on a sidenote, Montjeu’s spectacular start at stud (also responsible for the runner-up, as well as the second in the French Derby) was surely some compensation for the Ballydoyle/Coolmore team, whose first-season sires, which also include Giant’s Causeway (in US now), have produced 4 European classic winners so far this season; for his part, even though he tried to play down his own role, Motivator’s trainer deserves every credit for so skilfully husbanding his colt’s wonderful ability and fragile temperament-long may he continue to do so, as this win sets up the prospect of a terrific mid-summer programme over middle distances; his rider, of course, was able to take the mount only after having a 3-day ban reduced to 2 on appeal earlier in the week, and, with 3 victories, he joins Fallon as the most successful Derby rider still holding a licence.
A pleasing read, prufrock, as I am sure you would agree.
I can never take Timeform’s ratings seriously.
Just for the record, RPS last ten Derby winning ratings :
<br>2007 Authorized 130 <br>2006 Sir Percy 120 <br>2005 Motivator 129 <br>2004 North Light 124 <br>2003 Kris Kin 121 <br>2002 High Chaparral 130 <br>2001 Galileo 127 <br>2000 Sinndar 127 <br>1999 Oath 124 <br>1998 High-Rise 123
Edit: Apologies, thought they were Timeform’s ratings.
(Edited by Gareth Flynn at 8:28 pm on June 4, 2007)
Interesting that they rate Authorized as 3lbs superior to Sinndar. Wonders never cease.
I think that the 130 rating is pretty accurate, but it depends how you give RP rating. <br>Everything was in authorizeds favour, ground, pace, general position in field with regards pace etc, but to be fair it wasnt like he didnt hump them.
People have said that it was a weak derby, but I think it was only weak in the sense that there looked to be a lot of 115ish horses in the field but none of them really looked like having much more improvement in them (eagle mountain and potentially archipenko too looked like maybe having more to offer). But when you look at where everything finished with regards authorized (most of the 15ish sorts between 8 and 10 lengths behind) then his rating looks to be about right.
If you give ratings on what his next rating will be, it depends where he goes, if he goes to 1m2f on faster ground like motivator then he probably wont turn in a similar performance, but if he went to the arc where he will probably get a similar sort of race, then he could potentially improve on that run. I dont think its fair to judge a horse on what they might run like with conditions against them though and you can only go on what they done in their last race (with conditions as they were on the day).
Whatever authorized does from here on doesnt matter, on saturday i think he threw in a 130ish performance, what he is likely to do next time is all down to how his races work out and takes nothing away from what he done on saturday. To guage a horse solely on a rp rating alone is useless and you have to look at what is in their favour and what is not on the day of each race before you bet on them.
Just a couple of points, Authorized was rated 123p after the Dante, so he has been adjudged to have improved 9lb rather than 11 lb.
Although Eagle Mountain was held up right out the back, given the way the race was run, was there any disadvantage to these tactics? He didn’t seem to encounter any traffic problems. Also he was rated 119p going into the race and is now rated 123 so has been credited with 4 lb of improvement rather than 6 lb. Eagle Mountain’s best form was when winning a soft-ground Beresford over 8f last year. It’s no huge surprise to expect him to be able to do better over further at 3 imo.
A comparison with the official BHB rating is also slghtly wide of the mark. Timeform’s scale is different to the BHB, and at this time of the year, the 3yo’s on Timeform’s scale are approx. 4lb higher than that on the BHB, so a 126 BHB rating is the equivalent of a 130 Timeform rating, and a 132 Tf rating is obviously akin to a 128 BHB rating.
Having just watched the race for the first time (I was out of the country this weekend), I was very impressed. His Dante form put him well clear of anything else in this and I backed him as a result, but I didn’t see 5l and 2.5l coming. Most impressive Derby winner I’ve seen for a long time.
I also had a nibble at Eagle Mountain for the race after watching him in the Guineas, it looked to me as though he’d make every yard of 12f, and it appeared like he may go even further than that. Again I’m a bit behind, but why is he no longer quoted in markets for the St Leger?
I’d be interested to know if the 132 is a bare-form figure or includes a bit extra for the style of victory.
The "standard" figure on a 10-year survey is 130 (129 RPR) for a Derby won by those margins in a field of that size and in that winning time.
A positive view, perhaps, but hardly getting carried away IMO.
Agree TDK, only time will tell. But not sure how relevant having the World Cup winner in 3rd is since the race is only 10f, and Moon Ballad was very much a non stayer over 12f, the derby being his 1 try at the trip. In addition, 12f was arguably also beyond Hawk Wing’s best trip. We could also go a stretch further and say Oath’s derby was high class since he had another World Cup winner, Dubai Milennium, even further back in 9th.
As you say, time will tell, and for the race to merit "top class", horses from this Derby need to come out and prove themselves over this distance.
Can turn the question on its head and ask out of how many derby winners that have won as easily as authorised, how many were subesquently disappointing?
Motivator maybe, although he certainly ran with enough credit
Slip anchor going back further
But would it be fair to say that a win of that quality more often throws up a decent horse than not?
(Hawk wing definately want a 12f horse for me and did well to run so close)
Although Eagle Mountain was held up right out the back, given the way the race was run, was there any disadvantage to these tactics? He didn’t seem to encounter any traffic problems
Ask Pat Eddery :biggrin:
You cant predict traffic problems but the derby has had a reasonable share of them in the past. it can get very bunched of course. Also epsom seems to be a course that can lend itself to a horse slipping the field (as we seem to see a bit in the Coronation cup)
(Edited by clivex at 10:37 am on June 5, 2007)
Clivex,
I did not notice any traffic problems either and therefore thought that there was no disadvantage in being held up. After the race both trainer and jockey made a point of saying they would have been closer without early trouble. Hence my point in a previous post that Eagle Mountain has done well to have rated an improvement in the light of connections comments
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