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MARCH 1st
The start of another month which may herald our Springtime but if everything was equally balance it should be the reverse in Australia and their start towards Autumn but I am never sure when they do consider the end of summer is upon them. It may start earlier in the South Australia, then perhaps Victoria and be a little later towards NSW & then Queensland, whilst out west WA last of all.
For me this will require keeping careful watch, especially with regard to the ground conditions where sudden and severe storms can change the ground very quickly and therefore I may put my Australian system away whilst we enjoy better quality flat racing throughout our summer, that is if we do have a summer.
WICKED SCANDAL – Race 5, Balaklava @ 1/1
Billy's Outback Shack
Monday in Australia.
I have always found much difficulty sticking to self imposed betting rules or system rules as being the hardest of all disciplines which can also define myself as being a MUG PUNTER [another thread] and such is the situation I find myself facing for Monday in Australia.
There are three venues status there, Metropolitan, Provincial and Country or perhaps as we may describe them as City, Town and Rural.
Our efforts, MrE more than myself, determined Rural venues were best avoided, maybe one day with more data this will be changed but it has been a discipline adopted this current season and tomorrow, Monday, finds racing only at Country venues and thus will be avoided. Monday’s are always poor racing days, the best usually are Wednesday [mid-week] and Saturday but who knows it could possibly be the start of a slow wind down towards Autumn.
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Monday at home, here in the UK.
Will you be tempted: –
Wolverhampton 6.15 SKY DEFENDER @ 6/4 Unibet [boosted]
Now, SKY DEFENDER 7.15 Wolverhampton is a poor early price at 4/9, tempted, perhaps not. But both selections are well supported, in other words they each have all the ducks in a row, DEAR POWER has even more ducks etc. So, I have halved my stake and coupled them in a double with BetVictor at 11/8 and 4/9.
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SKY DEFENDER was a huge disappointment but I think I have a very good chance of getting my money back tomorrow, Tuesday where the ticks look big and the ducks even bigger.
GOING NATIVE – 6.00 Southwell @ 1/1. . . . . . WON
Both P.Power and Betfair’s prices look very much out of line with with the other layers low early prices.Billy's Outback Shack
A good spread of race meetings on Wednesday providing 4 selections: –
THUNBERG – R1 Hobart @ 6/5
UBER ED – R8 Hobart @ 11/10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WON
GIANT LEAP – R3 Bunbury @ SP
FOUNTAIN of YOUTH – R3 Murray Bridge @ 2/1 . . . . . WONBilly's Outback Shack
Wednesday – AW.
PITCHERS POINT – 3.30 Lingfield @ 4/5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .WON
SONGO – 5.45 Kempton @ 2.01/1 Wm. Hill [Boosted] . . . 3rd
GRIGGY – 8.15 Kempton @ 13/8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2ndBilly's Outback Shack
Thursday in Australia
I made a promise to myself I would not play outside of the rules because it would/could distort the true ability of this idea but by keeping such a promise I am allowing what I expect to be a winner to run without my support. So, I hope EDINBURGH goes on to win and then maybe the rules will be adjusted some time later.
BOOTLEG RASCAL – R6 Geraldton @ 9/5
*DEEP BREATH – R2 Kyneton @ 2/1 . . . . . .ABND!
*FLENSBURG – R4 Kyneton @ SP . . . . . ABND!Both horses at Kyneton will have a boosted stake as EDINBURGH would have.
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Thursday
Southwell 2.00 LILLY LIGHT @ 23/20
Not much to say about this one other than it really should do well, ticks & ducks in abundance.
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Friday in Australia
I have never understood the reasoning of level stakes, why should the risk be the same on an outsider in the betting as that of a favourite.
To this end I have adjusted my staking mode which builds upon a basic amount with each preferential indicator.
TOSCANINI – R1 Newcatle @ 7/5
*HOLY SUNDAY – R2 Newcastle @ 5/4
TOUCAN SAM – R3 Sunshine Coast @ SP* HOLY SUNDAY according to my adjusted staking is outstanding, Toucan Sam is next best.
Billy's Outback Shack
I am glad of a respite for Friday after LILLY LIGHT failed at Southwell.
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After a week when mediocre would sound and feel good I am pleased with the 4 selections for Saturday where Son of the Sun looks to get the heart pumping.
SON OF THE SUN – R3 Ascot @ 13/10
LAVERROD – R6 Ascot @ 1/1RUUCA – R4 Eagle Farm @ SP
EMERALD KINGDOM – R8 Eagle Farm @ SPBilly's Outback Shack
If you are tempted with very short priced favourites this could be the one at Meydan.
SPACE BLUES @ 4/6 [may get bigger] in race 3 @ Meydan.
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There can be many reasons why a betting system can turn from being very good to rather poor but my streak looks to have taken such a bad turn. Although this season whilst collaborating with MrE my original ideas have evolved into something very different and therefore last seasons results are unlikely to have any bearing on the current one, however back checking I did find I stopped in February when hitting a very large brick wall.
This past week has been a disaster and so I have decided to stop before I return all my profit to Bet365 and the likes.
MITTA MARY in race 2 at the Sunshine Coast track clawed back a little of the lost profit and I hope LORD KENSINGTON in race 8 at Ballarat will [with a little luck] do likewise on Monday, a bet placed before deciding to hibernate but for the time being will be my last.
If I can get my system for the flat [grass] up and running which based on the Australian system, looks encouraging whilst flirting with the Flat AW I hope to again be posting soon.
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I am pleased to Find LORD KENSINGTON allowed me to close the thread with a winning selection and having taken 13/8 the last few days don’t feel quite so bad.
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