January 16, 2020 at 11:44 #1479898
Dolus….. you’ve opened up a good topic here, I say that because it is proving to be very profitable and I am happy to have moved away from UK racing with underfoot conditions as they are at present… and I really cant believe how long this rain has been around and not allowing the ground to dry out.
That made me look again at Aussie racing and I am having enough success to warrant a deeper look…. it was just a fun thing to start with, something to while away the days until we got some decent weather in the UK, but the longer I studied the Australian game, the more I began to understand it… and the more profit I made. At that point in time, the penny dropped and I think I saw what I failed to see in the past, so last week, I dusted off my systems for Stateside, revamped it to where I think it should be and thus far it’s made a lot of difference. Will it last???… dunno, I hope so because it all makes sense and I find myself quite happy to drop all my UK betting until the Flat Season starts or this weather relents…. such is my success over in those countries, I have a feeling that I might keep my betting there, we will see what the next few weeks brings…. but you are correct Dolus, new avenues keeps the interest going…..
MrEJanuary 16, 2020 at 12:38 #1479905
Well, I hope my horses run a little faster than it took to open and get into this site. I am sure a little WD40 could speed things up.
I do not have any domestic selections for today (Thursday).
Friday in Australia; –
CALMYOURFARM – Cranbourn R2 @ 17/10
ROTHENBURG – Ballina R6 @ 6/4
Nuerals I am afraid Dolus are beyond my understanding but my main concept, aided by Racingandsports site, has mostly been tipster biased with a little handicap/ratings and maybe prices chucked in and it is amazing how many configurations can be found with this basic concept.
Only at the suggestion from Matron have I dared to dip my toe into the domestic winter AW scene but I applaud any for trying the scenes of USA, and other distant shores but I remain of the belief should handicap ratings form part of any selection application a sound and consistent racing surface is required and at the risk of repeating myself I will only involve myself this coming summer should the word GOOD be applied to the ground on any given day.
Billy's Outback ShackJanuary 16, 2020 at 15:47 #1479921PurwellParticipant
- Total Posts 649
Sound idea but I don’t always stick to it.January 16, 2020 at 16:16 #1479923DolusParticipant
- Total Posts 313
Another day, another dollar, but will that dollar be won or lost.
17/01/20 Time Track Race No. Horse 00:47 Taur 3 1 COOL AZA BEEL 02:00 Geel 1 2 INSPIRED SUN 03:00 Geel 3 7 FAIRY WAND 05:27 Town 3 3 BAUHINIA TED 05:40 Nowr 5 14 WANDONNA 06:04 Town 4 3 BACHELOR'S ART 06:15 Nowr 6 18 NEW DAY 06:45 Town 5 5 BOSS BABY 06:55 Nowr 7 14 STOKED 07:15 Cant 1 5 CRACKING MO 08:45 Cant 4 1 DEEP CRYSTAL 10:30 Cran 8 12 SALOME 11:00 Cran 9 9 MISTRESS MOLLY 23:37 Taur 1 4 FINAL SUGGESTION
Three non runners leaving 11 selections, 6 winners, Profit 6.74
Time Track Race No. Horse 23:37 Taur 1 4 FINAL SUGGESTION 9.21 00:47 Taur 3 1 COOL AZA BEEL 1.13 WON 02:00 Geel 1 2 INSPIRED SUN 2.89 WON 03:00 Geel 3 7 FAIRY WAND 4.34 WON 05:27 Town 3 3 BAUHINIA TED 1.88 WON 06:04 Town 4 3 BACHELOR'S ART 3.24 06:45 Town 5 5 BOSS BABY 5.15 WON 06:55 Nowr 7 14 STOKED 3.15 WON 07:15 Cant 1 5 CRACKING MO 20.91 08:45 Cant 4 1 DEEP CRYSTAL 2.00 10:30 Cran 8 12 SALOME 4.63January 16, 2020 at 17:11 #1479929DolusParticipant
- Total Posts 313
billion – Neurals are hard for most people to understand. Neural networks to give the full name are a branch of artificial intelligence that mimics how the human brain works.
Artificial neural networks or connectionist systems are computing systems vaguely inspired by the biological neural networks that constitute animal brains. Such systems "learn" to perform tasks by considering examples, generally without being programmed with task-specific rules. Wikipedia
Luckily we don’t have to know any of that with Racingandsports neurals as they are columns of ratings for different aspects of the horses abilities totalled to give a final rating. What those numbers mean or how they are related to each we will have to ask the program as it’s the only one who knows.
Ratings are good, described by someone as a shortcut to the form book, but what we really need are good ratings that not many people are using. I have never been a believer in taking too much notice of prices, a mechanism so the bookies can steer punters to the wrong horse and if the punters don’t fall for it and back the right horse they shorten it, (allegedly).January 16, 2020 at 18:58 #1479936
My UK AW selection for Friday: –
CLIFF WIND – Lingfield, 1.35 @ 6/4
Dolus – I very first came across Neurals 30+ years ago when it appeared in the paper (or hard copy in today’s terminology) version of Smart SIG magazine and it felt far too complicated for me then as does your explanation today. However, because it does not float my boat does not mean it is wrong or of no value because we each must find our own pathway.
Billy's Outback ShackJanuary 16, 2020 at 23:02 #1479968
I am quite sure that “Neurals” are the modern computerised way forward, but it still requires a different approach than to just look at the finished ratings, that won’t work…. and that’s not what this new form of rating was meant for. What we look at now is a complete rating of various factors taken from computer generated algorithms, I’m not trying to fuzz you with overload, so I’m attempting to explain it the best way I can. Neurals are generated by various computer calculations as Dolus has already stated, but everyone tends to look at the final rating….. NOT the answer… oh, if only it was that easy…. what it does is to give you a SERIES of ratings to reach that final figure… what YOU have to do is to find out which particular rating (or ratings) that afford you the most profitable results. It might be going plus class, or perhaps speed and distance, whatever your poison, you have to put the work in to find your selections.
It’s my own personal opinion, so no “needle” intended, but putting 12 to 14 selections together will NOT result in profits, it’s far too staggered and is just the same as pin sticking, there has to be something outstanding, something strong and tangible…. anything other than a firm, confident approach is just long term failure…. a 100/1 winner is useless if you have 102 losers…. there has to be a refined and consistent method of selection, even with Neurals… and I do love neurals….
Good posts and it’s what this forum is lacking…. everybody is banging tips up, but nobody is even bothering to query and ask questions… it doesn’t come easy guys, it never has, but you’ll learn nothing by keeping quiet….
MrEJanuary 16, 2020 at 23:35 #1479969
I think that it’s only fair to give recognition where it’s deserved… and whether he likes it or not, it has to go to that old fart Billion.
He arrived back on the scene after something close to 12 months away and in a short period of just 6 weeks he has ignited a dead systems section. I am NOT being detrimental to Matron being the head of Ward 7 and in control of all battery driven pleasure tools, but also to VTC and Alexander for keeping the place breathing. But the lights were off, the heating was off, Ward 7 had mould and mildew on the walls. Billy the Skirt came back and the lights came on, the heating is spot on and Matron has washed all that suspect sticky stuff off the walls (mildew).
It has also been noticed that she (Matron) has lost that ashen grey colour and it is said (quietly) that she has sometimes been seen prowling the dormitories with a smile on her face…. that hasn’t happened for a few months unless Matron was taking gripe water for wind…. but she was relieved at the sudden influx of patients.
The loser in all this is poor old Nathan…. always referred to by Matron, as Aladdin, because he was always rubbing his lamp (that’s a funny name for it)… so poor old Nathan has his nose put out of joint, but I know he’ll survive, all the trauma of not being top dog… yes, his income will drop because nobody is interested in a guy with piles when they have fresh meat with Biilly… treat Biily right and he’s all yours willingly…. upset him and the padlocks on that chastity belt go on in an instant…. be gentle with Billy, his legs aint up to it any longer… those knees can only spread so far and then it’s a dislocated hip…. be careful with him, treat it with a bit of respect….. Way to go Billy, I hope I’ve lined you up….
your old mate forever…
MrEJanuary 17, 2020 at 08:34 #1479978PurwellParticipant
- Total Posts 649
Must admit that I had forgotten about neurals although I did dabble a few years back.
Never really got them to work then and not sure if I have the patience now to try them again.January 17, 2020 at 10:55 #1479985
I do believe MrE has been at the bottle of Welsh Water once again . . . . . ho hum!
I am somewhat concerned of the poor returns from Australia since the turn of the year and previously when such a sharp decline has happened I have taken a short break to allow whatever is proving disruptive to have it’s moment and then pass.
I promised myself to post and record such profit/loss (which I hate doing not having any accountancy skills) for the month of January and will continue to do so but I have shared my concern regarding week-end betting and therefore taking advantage of giving the poor results an opportunity to recover by giving this week-end a miss.
I am wondering if the smoke hazard from the forest fires could possibly be the partial cause of my poor results when seeing tennis players collapsing because of the poor air quality, who knows?
Anyway a 48 hour break will not do any harm.
Billy's Outback ShackJanuary 17, 2020 at 11:08 #1479986
Once again I cannot help but notice gambling has hit the news which rather tarnishes all of us who enjoy a punt as being losers who cannot control their gambling which be it a Saturday punt or a trip to the bingo hall.
We may not win but are not the sad losers which such publicity makes us out to be. Although I feel sorry for such folk who use credit cards to gamble away their fortune and I believe it wrong for us all to be tarnished in the same bracket as the few who cannot control a habit.
I further am of the mind it is not the gambling industry of being in the wrong but something else is endemic within society as being the root cause. Yet again we feel the backlash of political correctness as appears to be the fashion these days.
Billy's Outback ShackJanuary 17, 2020 at 12:20 #1479990
Dolus has posted some impressive results with 6 winners – if only every day was just as good – well done
Billy's Outback ShackJanuary 17, 2020 at 12:27 #1479991
Good afternoon Kanga my friend…. there are strange happenings down in Oz and some of it remains unexplained, such as the changing of position in the ratings from my making my selections at 10.00am and checking the before posting on here at midday…. why should computer rating change within a two hour period…. odd!!!….
Nonetheless, this excellent thread is not meant to be a serious stab at making huge inroads, it’s too early for that, the idea was to ponder around the different countries to find out if life was any easier elsewhere whilst UK horses get swimming practice. I think your being a bit hard on yourself Bill, we are all just pottering and licking hot custard from around the edge of the bowl, it’ll take another couple of weeks to reach all that nice sweet jam in the middle.
All sorts of crap happening down there and it’s things that don’t make sense, so time is needed to oil the workings…. keep on trucking Bill…. anything for a laugh….
And WATER!!!…. what’s that????…..January 17, 2020 at 12:29 #1479992
Race 2 Ascot… War Anthem @ 3.80…. WON @ 3.80….
MrEJanuary 17, 2020 at 12:52 #1479993
I am following my gut MrE, after all is that not how we all started when picking a name or a jockey etc. when making our very first Grand National bet all those many years ago?
If something looks wrong, feels wrong, it probably is wrong. At this time it may be the poor air quality, after all I did read of a trainer pulling all his horses out of training until the situation has improved, maybe he is following his gut as well.
That said I do like your selection WAR ANTHEM, let’s hope it adds to your retirement fund.
Another fine winner for you MrE
Billy's Outback Shack
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