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O’Brien has had 131 group runners in 2017 a tenner on each would have earned you more than 500 in profit https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/analysis-how-theyre-still-underestimating-aidan-obrien-britain/
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SilkO’Brien has had 131 group runners in 2017 a tenner on each would have earned you more than 500 in profit https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/analysis-how-theyre-still-underestimating-aidan-obrien-britain/
Not a meaningful statistic.
Four fifths of that £500 coming from just one race, the Derby.
Take his second biggest winner out of it too and it would’ve made a deficit.
So without just 2 outsiders of those 131 runners there’d be NO profit.
So in all probability making a profit was only a coincidence. Especially as he’s highly unlikely to have as many winners in 2018.Give me Evens and I’d bet next year a tenner on each will earn you a deficit, KS.
Give me 2/1 and I’d bet next year a tenner on each will earn you a hefty deficit.Value Is EverythingO’Brien has had 131 group runners in 2017 a tenner on each would have earned you more than 500 in profit https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/analysis-how-theyre-still-underestimating-aidan-obrien-britain/
Not a meaningful statistic.
Four fifths of that £500 coming from just one race, the Derby.
Take his second biggest winner out of it too and it would’ve made a deficit.
So without just 2 of those 131 runners there’d be NO profit.
So in all probability making a profit was only a coincidence. Especially as he’s highly unlikely to have as many winners in 2018.Give me Evens and I’d bet next year a tenner on each will earn you a deficit, KS.
Give me 2/1 and I’d bet next year a tenner on each will earn you a hefty deficit.I’m not making a claim of the future, just citing the actually nice to read article.
I dont think I would have disregarded any of his gr 1 winners, backing half of his runners.
No bet
Best Wishes
SilkO’Brien has had 131 group runners in 2017 a tenner on each would have earned you more than 500 in profit https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/analysis-how-theyre-still-underestimating-aidan-obrien-britain/
You may well of made more if you had a fiver E/W on them all also KS.
O’Brien has had 131 group runners in 2017 a tenner on each would have earned you more than 500 in profit https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/analysis-how-theyre-still-underestimating-aidan-obrien-britain/
Not a meaningful statistic.
Four fifths of that £500 coming from just one race, the Derby.Incorrect, if you take out Wings of Eagles he still would of won with Cliffs of Moher
It can also work 2 ways Ginge, if you take out US Navy Flag from the Dewhurst you would of had an 80/1 winner instead. Can’t cherry pick mate
Youre right both on this and the E/W. Thx Botchy
How about the articles statement that Brits are underestimating O’Brien runners?
See the example with Expert Eye and US Navy FlagBest Wishes
SilkO’Brien has had 131 group runners in 2017 a tenner on each would have earned you more than 500 in profit https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/analysis-how-theyre-still-underestimating-aidan-obrien-britain/
Not a meaningful statistic.
Four fifths of that £500 coming from just one race, the Derby.Incorrect, if you take out Wings of Eagles he still would of won with Cliffs of Moher
It can also work 2 ways Ginge, if you take out US Navy Flag from the Dewhurst you would of had an 80/1 winner instead. Can’t cherry pick mate
:lol:
OK, not quite four fifths, Cliffs Of Moher was only 5/1.I’m not denying AOB made a very healthy profit in 2017. What I am saying is this statistic does not mean he is likely to show a healthy (or any) profit in future years.
If a punter made a £500 profit from his 2017 tips but that profit was due to just two runners (£400 of that coming from one @ 40/1)… Would you follow his/her tips for 2018? Fact is when this profit comes from just two outsiders there’s a far greater probability of that profit being due to coincidence and that it’s unlikely to profit in 2018. It’s the same with following a trainer.
Also, in 2017 AOB will beat the record for Group 1 wins in a season. That obviously means he’s had more winners than previous years. Which means if following AOB in 2018 you’re unlikely to have as many winners.
Also, with statistics like this coming out in to the public eye it’s likely to generate more money gambled on AOB runners, bookmakers will shorten the prices accordingly so there’s less value.
This statistic does not mean the markets are neccessarily “under-estimating” all AOB runners, it’s in all probability only a coincidence. However, if (and only “if”) there is a way of profiting from blindly following AOB runners, it may be best to concentrate solely on his outsiders in big races – possibly ew. Punters tend to under-estimate second and third strings generally, let alone fourth, fifth and sixth strings. Wings Of Eagles @ 40/1 was AOB’s 5th string in the market. In the 2016 Oaks, Qualify was AOB’s longest priced (@ 50/1) of his three runners.
Value Is EverythingI mostly agree with you Ginger. Statistics need more years and numbers to pay future value.
Best Wishes
SilkI mostly agree with you Ginger. Statistics need more years and numbers to pay future value.
We will keep watching KS eh ? Knowing our luck, we will get to 5 years of watching him make good profit, then we will step in and he wont have a bloody winner that year. Sods law eh
I mostly agree with you Ginger. Statistics need more years and numbers to pay future value.
We will keep watching KS eh ? Knowing our luck, we will get to 5 years of watching him make good profit, then we will step in and he wont have a bloody winner that year. Sods law eh
I am prohibited from having an account with bookies or I would have been on him most year antepost, like you Botchy. 1 win from cashing in for 2017, right?
Best Wishes
SilkHere we go, weekend entries up
1 RequiredSaturday – Racing Post Trophy
Seahenge
Saxon Warrior
The Pentagon
Coat of ArmsSunday
Criterium St. Cloud
Nelson
Kew Gardens
Delano Roosevelt
Hunting HornCriterium International
Threeandfourpence
Good luck Team Coolmore
I may as well say congrats rather than best of luck Botchy, I can’t see Frankel’s record remaining intact after this weekend. What a ride this bet has given you over the past few months, a memorable season to say the least.
Whatever your opinions on Coolmore and Ballydoyle, this achievement cannot be underestimated. Irrespective of their resources or tactics, to have such a strangehold on horse racing in the Britain and Ireland is staggering. Godolphin have the wealth of an Emirate behind them yet for all that they can’t even make a dent in the Classics, not even a scratch at that.
In the spirit of the thread, I’ve decided to have a bet for next season, which is only half novelty and half serious; Aidan O’Brien to win all 10 English and Irish Classics 40/1.
He has the 1st and 2nd in the ante post betting for the 20000 Guineas, 1,2 3 in the 1000, 1,2,3 in the Oaks, 1,2,3,4 in the Derby and 1,2,3,4,5,6 in the Leger. He won 8 out of the 10 Classics ran this season, and it looks like he’ll be going to war with one of his strongest ever Classic generations next year. I suppose we’ll know for certain after this weekend, but this looks like one of the strongest juvenile crops he’s had in recent memory. Here’s hoping they all progress over the winter, and there is no better man to ensure this.
Wow, what a way to end it. Certainly live up to his name that horse
Big congratulations to all involved in achieving a part in racing history
Well done Aiden O’Brien what an achievement and to botchy also what a great bet it’s been a very enjoyable thread to read
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Well done botchy
oh and O’Brien of course…
Never a moments doubt since the Guineas really Nathan
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