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My Way De Solzen already has a greater staying record than the last three winners of the GC IMO, so I think stamina doubts are extremely speculative at best and that he’ll almost certainly be aimed at the 26.5 furlong trip this year.
As for whether 10.5 is value, I think at this stage it’s about right. The GC market really is an uncertain one just now, any one of about 6 or 7 could prove a real world-beater this year. MWDS is one of those, so I’d just say you’d better keep your fingers crossed that KS doesn’t improve any!
Thanks for the advice lads-but im going in-im going to stick £25 @10.5 and wait a few weeks.
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Thanks for the advice lads-but im going in-im going to stick £25 @10.5 and wait a few weeks.
Yes, it must be a lot clearer now!
Friggo Posted: 19 Sep 2007 15:31 Post subject:
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My Way De Solzen already has a greater staying record than the last three winners of the GC IMO, so I think stamina doubts are extremely speculative at best and that he’ll almost certainly be aimed at the 26.5 furlong trip this year
Friggo
My premise that he won’t stay in the Gold Cup was based on his racing record; I try to avoid ‘speculative’.
All the past 3 Gold Cup winners had at least shown the potential to stay the trip, Kicking King with his battling finish after an almighty last fence blunder in the KG; War of Attrition with his staying-on 2nd in the Lexus, and Kauto Star with his staying-on victory in the KG. All 3 were top class races run at a proper gd1 pace.
MWDZ is a slightly different kettle of fish.
Although he had previously won, or run well over 3m, he had not run in a properly run gd1 race until his World Hurdle victory. In that race, run on ground on the fast side of good, he was all out to last home against the fast finishing (and unlucky) Golden Cross, with Mighty Man a one paced 3rd.
He then ran at Aintree, on appreciably softer ground, and although taking it up 3 out, did not have enough left in the tank to last home against Mighty Man who, on 4lb better terms, was able to reverse the result by some 11.5 lengths.
While I appreciate chases are generally run at a more gentlemanly pace than hurdles, the Gold Cup is invariably contested by a much stronger overall field than the Stayer’s Hurdle, and it is my firm belief that, on his form to date, MWDZ will not stay well enough to win a Gold Cup.
Apparently, his trainer isn’t too sure either, if he intends the King George as the horse’s main target for the season.and it is my firm belief that, on his form to date, MWDZ will not stay well enough to win a Gold Cup.
Cant have that.
If he had failed at the trip, then fair enough maybe, but also cant accept the 3m hurdle form as being irrelevant. The defeat by mighty Man hardly reads badly and im sure that King stated at the time that it simply wasnt his day. He was still a pretty inexperienced horse at that time too
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Clivex
Let’s not forget that Mighty Man outstayed MWDS, (Maybe it wasn’t his day because it was too far
), yet MM still only ran to a rating which would have got him no better than 3rd place in any of the past 3 Gold Cups.Seabird
If you can’t remember, watch the replay. If Simon Holt’s commentary is still on there, he obviously thought so too.
Oh, I remember, the suggestion that Golden Cross and Murtagh were intimidated by My Way hanging right.
IMHO, a right load o’bollix and Holt was probably speaking from his wallet!!!
Colin
Agree with that Seabird
Reet… how many times have we had this "hasnt proved he stays…so he wont" argument?
Kicking king? Kauto Star?
Your form picks are a bit selective arent they? The Chepstow 3m on g/soft defeat of Neptune Collognes would have taken some getting as did his narrow defeat over 3m at haydock on similar ground (you can tell ive looked these up again…). At the age of 5 too….
Hard to believe a young hurdler coping with 3m in testing conditions at two stayers courses would not last a GC trip after hes matured some
Reet,
I have to totally disagree with you here – though this is just my opinion
.You said;
"Although he had previously won, or run well over 3m, he had not run in a properly run gd1 race until his World Hurdle victory. In that race, run on ground on the fast side of good, he was all out to last home against the fast finishing (and unlucky) Golden Cross, with Mighty Man a one paced 3rd.
If I remember correctly, he thrashed Neptunes Collognes in the ‘GRADE 1’ Long Walk Hurdle, with Inglis Drever well beat when falling (as a 5 year old) – is that the race you are referring to when you say "although he had previously won, or run well over 3m".
Also, wasn’t his World Hurdle victory (as a 6 year old) a strongly run 20 runner affair – though I admit it wasn’t the strongest of World Hurdles.
He has also won over 2m5f at Cheltenham in heavy ground as a novice, with his trainer saying after the race "there’s plenty of time to go up in trip next season, and the jockey saying "There was plenty there at the finish today" and "he’ll hopefully be a Gold Cup horse next season".
It’s just my opinion, but I think 3m2f on good ground in March will well be within MWDS’s compass. Whether the horse will be aimed at the race (I think he will be) and whether he will be good enough to win it (I have my doubts) are different debates.
Mike
I know you are new here micky, but you will soon get used to reet’s inexperience when it comes to analysing form
Its a cross we all have to bear
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Clivex
Selective?
I would have thought that
"he had not run in a properly run gd1 race until his World Hurdle victory."
was quite specific myself.In both races you mention, he ran a s/f I would compete with. That isn’t a stamina test.
how many times have we had this "hasnt proved he stays…so he wont" argument?
Kicking king? Kauto Star?
As I also said above, KK & KS were both finding more at the end of their tests as above, whereas MWDS was knackered.
Come on…how many grade one staying hurdles are there?
Speed figure? He was running at bloody Chepstow….i am less interested in the anorak and slide rule, than the fact that that is a course that takes some getting
I dont know whether he will fully stay the 3m 2f ( i suspect he will..no more) but cannot have it that form points to the opposite. There was no disgrace in being shattered (a young horse remember) at the end of that Cheltenham race and could have resulted in the poor run at Aintree
"Let’s not forget that Mighty Man outstayed MWDS, (Maybe it wasn’t his day because it was too far ), yet MM still only ran to a rating which would have got him no better than 3rd place in any of the past 3 Gold Cups. "
This is the only bit I can’t have… When was the last time a hurdler posted a higher rating in a season than a chaser?
Most of the rest of the logic is sound – Not that you therefore have to agree with it. I think he’ll stay, I just don’t think he has any chance of beating Kauto. I’d rather back Exotic Dancer.
Thats the great thing about racing-everyone has an opinion!!!!!!
But im sticking to my guns,as i said my masterplan is to back him at 10.5 and if he comes in to 7 or 8.5 i will lay him.
If he stays sound i think he is a shoe in for a place in the Gold Cup,i was watching some of his races on dvd…hes a fine big chasing type and a rate Alan King very highly.
The way i see it if 1 or 2 drop out through injury or just poor form his odds will tumble,but the flip side is it could happen to him
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This is the only bit I can’t have… When was the last time a hurdler posted a higher rating in a season than a chaser?
You probably have a point there – it isn’t something I’d given a great deal of thought to previously.
Albeit, the point that the overall class in the Gold Cup is higher than in the Stayers’ Hurdle still stands, which makes it that little bit more demanding to win.
As the GC field stands at the moment, I wouldn’t bet him to place – even with the guarantee of a run..It’s only Timeform’s opinion, but Istbraq posted a 180 figure in 2000/2001 – the same mark allotted to First Gold got for his King George win that season.
Le Sauvignon got 178+ the same year, I think for his Grande Course de Haies victory – both hurdlers were rated higher than the next best chaser (Looks Like Trouble – 176).
The only hurdler to get close since is Baracouda, I think (175 in 2002/2003) some 7lb shy of Best Mate’s rating, derived from his win in the Ericsson. Baracouda was clear of the next best chaser – Valley Henry, who was rated 172 (pfft!!)
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