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Just sniffing around for some ”Ante Post” value and i think ive found it-hoping you guys can give me some advice pros and cons.
MY WAY DE SOLZEN is 10.5 on Betfair for the GOLD CUP was thinking of backing £100@10.5 and then hoping that he shortens or the 2 or 3 above him in the betting drop out!!!..then i could lay him.
He was the most impressive looking horse i saw all last season,a real jumping type
Thoughts Please
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I doubt he will even run, and if he does he is unlikely to stay..
As DJ said on another thread, he looks much more a King George type.Can’t see how there is any value in 10.5. Only way he shortens is if the Exotic Dancer, Denman or Kauto get injured, (of course there is as much chance of your selection being injured as them) or if he wins the King George. You’d be better of backing him for that, not necessarily because I think he’ll win (Kauto Star will again carry all before him this season because he’s the best part of a stone better than any other chaser in Europe) but at least he’ll run there. After being beaten in that, connections will surely steer clear of Kauto Star and aim him at the upgraded Ryanair Chase.
Ante-post betting really was much easier when there was only 3 days! Personally I wouldn’t worry about his stamina for the Gold Cup.
Concur with DJ on the above – seems little point in pursuing the Gold Cup option with him when the Ryanair seems more within his compass, irrespective of whether he takes in the King George or not first.
Might not the Peterborough also count as a possible port of call?
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Depends how many times they want to run him before Christmas I reckon graysons. I think I read a report of one of his open days where there was a story of starting out over hurdles again first (no doubt only half fit at Wetherby on Charlie Hall day).
Whilst it would be lovely if MWDS reappeared at Huntingdon (I could have a leisurely lunch at home before pootling over to the course for the big race) I would hardly think that connections would be drawn towards the Peterborough, mainly because of the hefty Grade One penalty that the horse would receive.
I think he’ll win the Gold Cup if he goes for it, Ghost. Whether 10’s is value is another matter.
I’d say the 15.5 for the Champion Chase is better value about My Way De Solzen.
It’s likely to be an inordinately weaker contest than the Gold Cup, and Arkle winners have a great record in the race.
Despite it’s move to G1 status next season, the RyanAir just doesn’t have the same cache attached to it as the other main Championship chases, and I wouldn’t be in the slightest bit surprised if Alan King went Champion Chase next season, with a view to contesting the Gold Cup in 2009. The horse is still only a 7yo, and has plenty of time on his side.
Concur with DJ on the above – seems little point in pursuing the Gold Cup option with him when the Ryanair seems more within his compass, irrespective of whether he takes in the King George or not first.
Might not the Peterborough also count as a possible port of call?
gc
I know the Ryanair has been upgraded, but MWDS is a top class animal, and I would be absolutely amazed if connections were pondering that race rather than the Gold Cup. In fact, I would be exremely confident that if Alan King is put on the spot within the next few months, he would almost certainly say the Gold Cup is the target.
Let’s not forget, MWDS is the 3rd favourite for the Gold Cup, with 25/1 bar 4 being the case in most antepost lists. The horse will be aimed at the Gold Cup in my opinion, especially as Alan King is on record as sayiing ‘the horse will have plenty of time to step up in distance next season’ – he said that in January of this year I think.
Mike
I was talkling to Kingy’s assistant, Noel Williams, about My Way at Chepstow last week and he certainly gave me the impression that the King George was the target for the season.
Colin
Seperate owners but for me the likelihood of running him against Voy Por Ustedes is slim.
I was talkling to Kingy’s assistant, Noel Williams, about My Way at Chepstow last week and he certainly gave me the impression that the King George was the target for the season.
Colin
I don’t disagree with that at all Colin, but the King George is in December, the Gold Cup/Ryanair Chase is in March.
I am certain connections will have the King George as their first target, but as a Cheltenham target I stand by what I said that they will have the Gold Cup way ahead of the Ryanair Chase as their main target at this stage of the season.
No doubt, the King George will go a long way to either sticking with the Gold Cup as their target, or changing to the Queen Mother or the Ryanair Chase.
Mike
The best ante-post value for me is with Iktitaf at 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle. He’s been hobdayed in the close season and after he’s shown the benefit of that when winning his reappearance on the bridle, you’ll be able to lay off the stake at half those odds.
Carvills laws of ante-post betting, formulated after much pain through the years are:
1.Back only horses that are definite runners in the contest you are backing them for- more difficult than ever now that there are so many options at Cheltenham.
2.Only back a horse a considerable time before a race if you are certain it’ll be less than half the price if it lines up on the day.
I don’t think MWDS fits either of those rules. I’d be happy enough to lay 10s meself.Seperate owners but for me the likelihood of running him against Voy Por Ustedes is slim.
Hmmn – you’re probably right, dj. I’d forgtten about the stable-mate.
The best ante-post value for me is with Iktitaf at 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle. He’s been hobdayed in the close season and after he’s shown the benefit of that when winning his reappearance on the bridle, you’ll be able to lay off the stake at half those odds.
Great shoud DJ, couldn’t agree more for exactly the same reasons as you. For some reason, I had it in my head that the horse was best priced at around 16/1 – so thank’s for highlighting it here at 25’s, it just means that one of the kids Christmas presents will have to wait until next pay day
Mike
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