2022 Grand National

Usual run through of the field, but with the field yet to be finalised, could still be the odd change. Going on the basis of Good to Soft, which looks the safest bet right now.

First impressions is that it’s a stronger race this year too.

Minella Times
Very impressive winner last year, and looked just the type to remain competitive in this for another few years. Hardly plain sailing this year though, and for all it’s safe enough to assume that everything has been geared around this day, he’s still looked way short of last years standards. Significantly higher mark to defy, and very hard to see him overcoming it.

Delta Work
Great servant for connections, and his win in The Glenfarclas Chase last month at Cheltenham, added to his Pertemps, his three Grade One Novice Chases, and his double in 19/20 in The Savills and The Irish Gold Cup. He’s just fell short of Grade One Company this year though, and his route to The Cross Country made sense. Easy to overlook the manner of that win, given the much discussed defeat of Tiger Roll, but he travelled well throughout, and the headlines aside, he won it cosily. I’d have no concerns about that race taking too much out of him, as it’s a route the yard know well, and he looks a worthy market principal. Yes, his jumping has been iffy in the past, but overall he makes loads of appeal, and won’t have any concerns with which way the weather goes.

Easysland
Looked to be really going places with his Cross Country win in 2020, but things haven’t really went to plan since. Subsequently moved from France to Jonjo O’Neil, and in three runs since, he’s pulled up every time. His run last time offered a little encouragement, but off a high looking mark, he’s looking up against it.

Any Second Now
Extremely likeable type, who’s been given another patient prep, resulting in him winning The Bobbyjo. 5lbs higher for his second last year, but that’s of little concern, as he’s worthy of such a mark. Connections will be hoping it’s third time lucky, having looked ready for a huge run in 2020, only to be denied by the lockdown, and an extremely unlucky loser last year, having been almost brought to a standstill at the 12th. He’d almost certainly have won but for that mishap, and though there’s the concern that his chance may have gone, he’s just very difficult to pick holes in, and he’s a rock solid contender.

Run Wild Fred
Slightly disappointing for supporters in The National Hunt Chase, going down tamely to Stattler, when well fancied. Probably best to forgive that though, as Stable wasn’t exactly in the best of form. Yard hardly firing right now either, but almost certainly worth considering here, based particularly on his second in The Irish National, and his impressive win in The Troytown. On a fairly high mark, but he looks worthy of it, and Davie Russell on board would be a big positive. Looks a big danger, and his style of running should suit.

Lostintranslation
Looked destined for a prolonged spell at the top following an excellent 19/20. His wins in The Dipper, Colin Parker, Mildmay Novices, and Betfair Chase, along with fine placed efforts in The Scilly Isles, The JLT, and The Gold Cup promised plenty, but bar his win at Ascot this year, nothing much has went right. The form of that Ascot win doesn’t read so well now, and though his run in The Ultima wasn’t all bad, and suggested that he’s better suited to handicap company now, there’s just enough question marks for me.

Brahma Bull
Quirky sort, who certainly can have his own ideas, but the ability is there, and from this yard, he makes plenty of appeal at a fair old price. Going well enough when unseating at Cheltenham in The Cross Country, and his third at Newbury in The Ladbrokes Trophy gives him a squeak here. Not the most consistent, but he also won a very competitive handicap at Punchestown last spring, and providing its not too testing, I can see him outrunning his odds. I’d like to see him prominent, and backers will know their fate early doors if he gets shuffled back.

Burrows Saint
2019 Irish National winner, who was a fine fourth in this last year, but I’m not absolutely convinced that he’s coming here with similar credentials, and he was thumped last time in The Bobbyjo. Off a similar mark here, he’s obviously not one that you can write off with any confidence, and he’ll surely run his race, but I just see him as booked for minor honours at best this time around.

Mount Ida
Has had a smashing season, and she’s got her head in front more than once, following on her from her amazing performance in last season’s Kim Muir. Not so good at Cheltenham last time though, and even allowing for the yard form, it was a bitterly disappointing run. The step up in trip should certainly suit. I still reckon her beating of Ladbrokes Trophy Winner Cloudy Glen over 3m 2f is the best race to judge her on, and that puts her bang there, but still questions to answer after last time, and for all the step up in trip should be key, she won’t be wanting to be too far back.

Longhouse Poet
Enjoyed his biggest success when landing The Thyestes, a win that clearly advertised his credentials. Given the early market support for him in that race, it was clear it was part of a long term plan, and he had a bit up his cuff. Has plenty of decent runs to his name, and has kept good company. Yard know what’s needed in this race, good jockey on board, and looks a big threat to all. I’d have no worries about his higher mark here, and looks a huge threat, with the going being the only (slight) concern.

Fiddlerontheroof
Just failed to give weight to the very decent Fortescue at Ascot, and this followed on from his win in The Colin Parker, and a creditable second in The Ladbrokes Trophy. Slightly disappointing here last year, but that was off the back of trying to tackle Monkfish at Cheltenham. I’d happily forgive him that run here, and it’s hard to pick too many holes in him. Yard don’t run too many in this, and notable they swerved Cheltenham to focus on this. Definite chance.

Two For Gold
Enjoying a fine campaign, showing great attitude to win on seasonal debut, before landing the Fleur De Lys. Cracking run behind Fakir D’oudairies since, and he looks worthy of his place here. Ground should be fine for him either way, but the trip is certainly an unknown, and failed to land a blow before unseating in The Topham last year. Trainer landed this just over thirty years ago, and for all he’s a smart type, I’d be slightly surprised if he got his head in front here.

Santini
Been called a few names in the past, but he’s been running with credit for new connections this year. Ran at the top level, and has big runs in The RSA, and The Gold Cup to his name, as well as landing a Cotswold, but doubtful that he’s as good as he was then. Should show up well for a way, and performed as expected in The Gold Cup last time. Can see him being involved, without making the frame.

Samcro
One of the most hyped horses of recent times, but sadly it’s not went to plan, and possibly can be traced back to a heavy fall at Punchestown four years back. Tried over a variety of distances, he’s rarely delivered, and recent form suggests he’ll struggle. That said, it’s only a couple of years since a smashing performance in The Marsh, and there’s the obvious suspicion that he’s been laid out for something, and should he retain a lot of his ability, then he’d be incredibly well handicapped. A lot of “ifs and buts” with him, and for all it wouldn’t be a complete shock if he burst into life here, it’s also extremely easy to have more than a few doubts.

Farclas
Excellent fifth in this last year, and this has looked the plan for some time. Thought he was still going ok when unseating in The Kerry National, before finding only Run Wild Fred too good in The Troytown. He’s had a nice quite prep, and it’s been a surprise to see him overlooked in the build up. A year older, he can easily get involved here.

Escaria Ten
Looked a really good chaser in the making last year, with a couple of very eyecatching runs. This was confirmed when he finished third in a very strong renewal of The National Hunt Chase. Looked a National horse all along, and it’s clear that his season has been built around this. Worth noting he had a setback early in the season, which showed with a tame finishing effort in The Thyestes, before getting reeled in by Any Second Now in The Bobbyjo. That’s a very slight concern, but overall he looks to have plenty going for him, and I’d suspect he’s way better than current mark. Should be involved, but slight suspicion that he might have to settle for a place.

Good Boy Bobby
Not so good at Kempton last time, but generally performing well this year. Two good wins at Wetherby bring split by an excellent second to Aye Right in The Rehearsal Chase. Easy to think that his revised mark found him out at Kempton, but I’d be happy to overlook that, and he’s been shaved a pound off the back of it. Weather Forecast shouldn’t have a bearing on his chances, and he’s the choice of Daryl Jacob over the other Munir/Souede runners. Should run his race, but might just prefer smaller fields.

Lord Du Mesnil
Out of form last year before bouncing back in The National Trial at Haydock. He failed to build on that though, and struggled in this last year. Similar story this year, though his second in The Rowland Meyrick was more like it. Just not seen enough this year to get excited about, and was soon beaten in The Becher. Very hard to make a case for.

Coko Beach
Had always looked the type to land a big staying chase, and duly delivered in The Thyestes last year. Not disgraced in this years renewal, nor in The Irish National, and The Punchestown National Trial. There’s very obvious stamina doubts, but supporters should get a good sight of him, and get a good run for their money. He’s worth his place in the line up, and I’m sure he’s better than 146, but those niggling stamina doubts remain, and he was well beaten in The Bobbyjo. Hard to see him landing this, but should give it a good go.

De Rasher Counter
Decent winner of The Ladbrokes Trophy in 2019, he’s had his issues, and barely seen since. He didn’t actually achieve much when seen after Newbury, and the revised mark looked to have his measure. He shaped extremely well though for a long way in his comeback in The Denman, and back here off the same mark as his win at Newbury, he’s certainly not a forlorn hope. Interesting contender.

Caribean Boy
Looked very promising type when comfortably holding Fiddlerontheroof early last season at Newbury. It was a race that screamed “Topham”, but having lined up for that race last April, he never landed a blow. Has got his head in front this year, showing a good attitude at Kempton in January, but overall, I just think he comes up short of what you’re looking for here. That win at Newbury was decent though, and Henderson is keen, but he’s got a poor record in this, and I’ll reluctantly pass him over.

Kildisart
Only seen once in the last eighteen months, and only got eight runs under his belt since winning at this meeting three years back. He’s had his issues then, but looked in good working order on his comeback at Newbury over an inadequate trip. Lack of significant rain not an issue, and that win here, coupled with his effort in The Ultima give him an outside chance, but it would be some effort to land this off a preparation like that. A case can be made, and he’s certainly on a fair mark, but I can see a finish just outside the frame for him.

Discorama
Ran very well for a long way in this last year, only fading close home, and his season has obviously been geared around a repeat bid. Admittedly he wins rarely, and hasn’t got his head in front for over three years, but there’s more to him than that. There are plenty of sound efforts efforts in that, most notably at The Cheltenham Festival, and he looks a horse who’s kept for the big occasion. He’s definitely flying under the radar, and should the rain come, he’s definitely overpriced here at around 40’s

Top Ville Ben
Solid enough type, who’s prepped for this with a couple of runs over hurdles. Looked to have had a really hard race in The Rendlesham, where he was out on his feet in second (third placed won Pertemps Final), and remains to be seen what mark that has left on him. Didn’t enjoy a great time of it this year over fences, and took a heavy fall here in The Becher. Likeable horse, who should have more decent prizes in him, but I can see him just short of what’s required here.

Enjoy D’Allen
Obvious contender, and obvious enough that JP snapped him up. Smashing run over hurdles at The Dublin Racing Festival, and this followed finishing third in both The Irish National, and The Paddy Power. Both those runs bring him right into this, and he looks a horse who’s not stopped progressing. Shouldn’t be fazed with whatever ground he gets, and he’s looking like one of the more serious players. Big run surely on the cards.

Anibale Fly
Can boast an excellent record in this and The Gold Cup, making the frame in both races on two occasions. Last time was three years ago though, and has achieved little since. Clearly not the force of old, and never got going in this last year. Trainer seems happier with his prep this time around, but even then, it’s just difficult to see him bouncing back here. His third at The Punchestown Festival last year offers a sliver of hope, but on recent form, he’s hard to make a case for.

Dingo Dollar
Ran poorly here on only previous attempt, in the 2020 Grand Sefton, when badly out of form, in what proved to be his final run for Alan King. Switched to the Sandy Thomson yard, and not for the first time, the move to the borders, resulted in marked improvement, winning in impressive style at Newcastle. Went down fighting in last year’s Scottish National, and he looked as good as ever. Not quite hit the same heights this season, and ran a bit flat at Kelso last time. On his day, I could see him show up well for a very long way here, but in what’s been a slightly disappointing season for the yard, I can see him having to settle for minor honours at best.

Freewheelin Dylan
Caused a massive upset in last years Irish National, leading a strong field a merry dance, before running out an impressive winner at 150’s. Followed this up with a cracking effort at Punchestown Festival, and in process of running a solid race over Cross Country course at Cheltenham when unseating. He looks on a fair mark, weather forecast very much in his favour, and trainer has made the frame here before. There’s the chance he could be saved for Fairyhouse, but NRNB helps in that regard. His style of running should suit, and at 66’s, for reigning Irish National Winner, I think he’s the pick of the bigger priced runners.

Class Conti
Despite good runs in Thyestes and Leinster National last winter, he’s never fully convinced me in races of this nature. Has had a very quiet season, and this was off the back of a quiet run in this last season. He’s definitely not the most obvious contender here, but they’re giving it another go, and from this yard, that fact alone means he’s worth a second look, but he does look to have his work cut out.

Noble Yeats
Seemed to be going the right way earlier in the season, making a winning debut over fences, albeit over two miles, with the very decent Gabynako behind him. Has chased home some decent sorts since, and though he failed to make the frame in The Paddy Power and The Ultima, it will have given some big field experience in a competitive handicap. The assistance of Waley Cohen is possibly overplayed, myself included, but no denying he can get a tune out of them round here. Got the dreaded 7yo stat to overcome, but he looks the type to run well at a price without quite getting there.

Mighty Thunder
Enjoyed an excellent end to last campaign with a second in The Midlands National to Time To Get Up (good run), sandwiched by wins in The Edinburgh, and Scottish Nationals. He had Aintree written all over him, but things haven’t went according to plan this year. He’s had his wind tinkered with, but pulled up the last two runs, and has looked a shadow of his former self. Trainer has landed this before, but One For Arthur came here in much better form. She has a decent record at Aintree in general, and anything she sends commands respect. Impossible to recommend on this years runs, but they’ve swerved Ayr in favour of this, and would have a huge chance on last years form.

Cloth Cap
Went off a very popular selection last year, eventually pulling up. Excellent winner of The Ladbrokes Trophy, before winning what was admittedly a weak enough Premier Chase at Kelso. Went up to 156 for that, which looked a bit extreme, and down to a more realistic mark now. On that Newbury win, he has every chance, and not completely disgraced in this years renewal either. Other runs though have been less than favourable, and he was particularly disappointing at Ascot. I’d like to put a line through him, with the thinking that his chance has gone, and that this seasons form leaves him out of this, but if the rain does indeed stay away, it wouldn’t be the greatest shock to see him bounce back. A hard one to weigh up.

Snow Leopardess
First caught the eye when showing great attitude to beat Commodore at Haydock last season, and she’s fairly built on that this term. Her win in The Becher, again showing good battling qualities was a huge positive, and though different conditions here, I can see her getting into a similar good rhythm here. Not missed in the market obviously, but her chance is obvious. Started the season off with a fine display at Bangor, and her subsequent win at Exeter in a Listed Mares Chase was hugely impressive. In fine fettle, sound enough jumper, race should suit her, and she looks nicely treated. I can’t help thinking that something will get the better of her close home, but she’s done absolutely nothing wrong this year. Every chance.

Agusta Gold
Another one of those Mullins runners, where the easy call on current form is to pass them by, but I can’t completely write her off. Her run in The Paddy Power was woeful, but she can easily be excused her “PU” in The Thyestes, and I think her second to Roi Mage at Down Royal is better than it looks. That run should at least put her spot on here. Her overall form isn’t good enough, but her run in The Irish National wasn’t without promise, and although stretching it for win purposes, I can see her possibly outrunning her odds, and she shouldn’t have concerns over the ground.

Phoenix Way
Lightly raced, and having looked a very promising sort in 19/20, he’s been rarely sighted since. Two highly encouraging runs at Ascot this year, but took a heavy fall at Kempton last time. It’s clear that he holds plenty of ability, and he’s a horse I really like, but his lack of experience has to be a concern here.

Deise Aba
Struck me as a definite National horse when running a good race in The Kim Muir in 2020. Much less impressive in the 2021 renewal, and perhaps notable that they’ve missed Cheltenham with him this time around. Been running well in defeat this year, without getting his head in front, and rain or no rain, it shouldn’t be a concern for him. Probably not done enough to say he’s particularly overpriced, but he should run a solid enough race.

Blaklion
Couldn’t have him in on my mind for this last year, but ran a screamer into sixth. Life in the old dog yet, and was great to see him win twice this year in good style. A year older though, and he had a hard time of it in the mud at Haydock last year. A similar run at Haydock a few seasons back, seemed to bottom him, and there’s obvious concerns at what effect that’s had on him this time. He certainly proved me wrong last year, and although this looks a big ask, even allowing for his wins this year, he should go well for a way. His overall record round here is encouraging too.

Poker Party
His win in The Kerry National of 2019, which preceded another fine effort in The Paddy Power, is exactly what’s required here, but two and a half years on, he’s obviously had his issues, and rarely seen since. Nothing to recommend him on his runs this year though, and though you could point to the fact that it’s dangerous to write any runner off from this yard, he’s just not done enough recently to consider him.

Death Duty
Pinpointed by his trainer as one of his main hopes, and sneaks in here down the bottom. After a year off, I can take positives from all his runs this season, not least his win in The National Trial at Punchestown. Not given too hard a time of it at Cheltenham, and he clearly comes here with a chance. Like his stablemates, yard form is a slight concern, but he’s got an obvious chance, looks well treated, and no ground concerns.

Domaine De L’Isle
His run in The Eider was very poor, and he looked uncomfortable throughout. He’s better than that though, and did enough in The Becher to be given his chance here. The lack of rain is definitely in his favour, and was in very good heart this time last year. There are certainly more obvious ones, but they’ve avoided Ayr to take the chance that he sneaks in here, which has now worked out, and if he’s in better heart than Newcastle, then I can see him easily outrunning his huge odds.

Eclair Surf
Hugely impressive winner of The Classic at Warwick, which put him firmly in the picture here. His runs either side offer plenty of encouragement too. Bang there with Snow Leopardess when tipping up at Bangor, before chasing home subsequent Welsh National winner in the trial at Chepstow. Since Warwick he’s found only Win My Wings too good in The Eider. That form was certainly confirmed last Saturday. There’s maybe slight concerns about his tendency to hit a few, but no surprise to see him popular in the market this week, and a big run surely awaits if he sneaks in.

Fortescue
Has thrived this season, outrunning his odds in The Ladbrokes Trophy, before a fine effort behind Royal Pagaille at Haydock. He got the win he deserved at Ascot, getting the better of Fiddlerontheroof, and that’s enough to give him plenty of respect here. Faces an anxious wait to get in, but worthy of his place on the line up, and though he has to improve again, it’s not out of the question.

Commodore
Looked like he’d be a mainstay in Staying Chases a few years back, but it’s not quite worked out. He did bounce back though at Cheltenham in December, showing the type of performance that he promised a few years back. He was hugely impressive, and now looking well treated for a yard that’s had an excellent season, it’s a shame that he probably won’t get in. Big player if he miraculously gets in.

School Boy Hours
Finally got his act together in The Paddy Power Chase, but he always looked to have a fight on his hands to get in here. Blundered away his chance in The Kim Muir, and eased when his chance had gone. Looks well treated, and every chance if he gets in, which looks highly unlikely, and probably best to concentrate on him for Fairyhouse now.

I really want Escaria Ten to win, and I’ve been mad in him for this for eighteen months now, but I’d just liked to have seen more at the business end from him. That’s not to say he won’t deliver though, and I just think he’s very good, and crucially ahead of his mark. I hope he can do it.

That said, Delta Work, who I’ve bet regularly for four years now, just looks rock solid on current form, and off that mark. I’m kicking myself for not taking those mad prices in January.

Any Second Now deserves to win after last year, so unlucky. He looked the winner to me in 2020 as well, and even with a few pounds extra this year, he looks as good as ever, and I’d consider him rock solid.

I really like Longhouse Poet, with ground the only niggle, and I’d just have Snow Leopardess and Enjoy D’Allen ahead of him.

Freewheelin Dylan looks a crazy old price for an impressive Irish National winner, and if it doesn’t get too soft, one of the best 66-1 shots I’ve seen, and that can still be bet NRNB, which covers the issue of his entry at Fairyhouse.

I’m hoping I’m wrong and Escaria Ten does it, but confident big a big run.

Always daft to a first six, but here’s my stab at it anyway

1 Delta Work
2 Freewheelin Dylan
3 Any Second Now
4 Escaria Ten
5 Snow Leopardess
6 Enjoy D’Allen