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It’s not like me to defend Samcro’s connections, but he ran respectably yesterday. Balko Des Flos looked to be a former Grade 1 horse in a similarly forlorn position last year, but things worked out pretty well in the National for him. Sometimes the change can revitalise these class acts.
I thought Santini ran quite well yesterday considering he was the lowest rated in the field.Jumped like a stag at every fence and considering the whole field was beaten at least 15 lengths not a bad prep really to be 15 lengths behind the second.
Backed him NRNB a few times and pushed out to 50/1 by a couple of firms which is tempting me to have another.
I backed Santini for the GN after the run behind Chantry , id just hope it doesn’t come to quick
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
I wonder if the Galvin camp might consider coming here afterall after what was a pretty tame Gold Cup run? Certainly wouldn’t say he had a hard race. I’m sure there might be other motives for running either himself or Conflated here, but I’m not going to cast aspersions.
All will become clear in a few days.
He’s probably ‘cream crackered’ after the Gold Cup. Were he to turn up, more chance of a DNF than a win.
imo Santini doesn’t jump well enough and seems to have more than his share of temperament these days. Gives up when crowded which isn’t what you want in a 40 runner field.
Value Is EverythingGinge, the only time he ran in a race with more than 11 opponents he finished
3rd in the Albert Bartlett
Won a Grade 1 at Aintree
2nd in an RSA
2nd in a Gold Cup
PU in a Gold CupHow you can possibly say he gives up in big fields is mind boggling when all of his best runs have been in the biggest fields he has ever ran in.You could argue he does not like small fields based on those runs.
If Wednesday has taught us anything, it’s to have a soft ground specialist in your pocket, just in case.
Lord Du Mesnil stays all day and, should the ground go soft or heavy, he will be worth a shout. If it isn’t, he won’t run.
And, at 100s with NRNB, then I’m happy to take that chance.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
The prob is they,d be a whole load of Irish horses who,d love it as well and would prob be better handicapped
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
I was watching Santini in the GC as well as I’ve backed him for the National. I thought his jumping was rather good.
Just wondering what you all think about Minella Times’s chances this year? Carrying more weight but still looks fairly treated. And as we’ve seen at Cheltenham, even when HDB’s horses arent in the greatest of form his best ones still produce.
Fair call, Mike. His prep races havent exactly instilled confidence, but HDB does seem to be masterful at getting them ready for the big ones.
Sorry Botchy and Moehat, tried to put my last post into too few words.
Horses change with experience / as they get older and for looking at how it is likely to run I don’t look that far back. Am not at all interested in the first four races you mention. Botchy; they’re too far back in his history. Point I was making about Santini imo (these days) potentially not being suited by 40 runners is all about where Santini races in those smaller fields. The last time I can find Santini racing actually in amongst rivals is in his glory days, when 2nd to Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup.
imo Something changed in the horse’s temperament shortly after that run. Because lately his rider has seemingly been at pains to race wide. Point is jockeys don’t persistently do this (giving away ground) unless there’s good reason, either a jumping or temperament issue or both. Is not just being alongside either, lot of the time his jockey is two or three horse widths away from the next horse in – giving the horse space and / or a clear view of his obstacles. Only time racing on the inner was when diputing the lead (ie again with clear view). Yes, it is true that Santini jumped fairly well in the Gold Cup racing wide; but only time he had a rival on his outer was his worst jump 4 out… And that’s the pattern I’ve noticed.
I expect Santini to jump well if able to get a clear view of his fences but not if getting in amongst horses. Ditto temperament, if able to find room he could run well, if not could down tools. But the point I was making is – with 40 runners – it is not going to be easy to find room and / or find a clear view of his fences… And racing wide around Beechers, Foinavon and Canal Turn is not the thing to do either. I’ll be seeing nearer the time whether the number of front and / or prominent runners makes his task easier or harder too.
Value Is Everything
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