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It looks a mighty race and the front two are very interesting but I have had a few quid each way on SKARDU at 7/1 and SHELIR at 33/1 both four places.
Shelir could be anything and Skardu is surely not seven points worse than Magna Grecia ?
Good Luck Guys
GT, what’s your view on the actual value price for TDH? Ie, would you be concerned about the drift, or that he’s drifting to a more realistic price based on everything?
To be fair, Raymo; @ 11/8 (42.1%) Magna Grecia would only need to have a better than X 3.37 chance than Skardu 7/1 (12.5%) for MG to be a better bet. 42.1 ‘/, 12.5 = 3.37
Value Is EverythingI didn’t work out the race as a conventional 100% book, Frenchy.
Instead I first broke the field in to three.
If MG, TDH and The Field all had the same chance of winning, each of the three would be 33.3% recurring chance of winning (33.333 X 3 = 100%). But imo Magna Grecia has a fair amount more than a one third chance, fractional better chance than TDH, with TDH having a fair bit more chance than the others put together.** I also think the combined chance of Magna and Skardu have just about fractionally better chance than TDH + The Field, but couldn’t split Magna + The Field Vs combined chance of TDH and The Field.
Magna Grecia 38% = a fair 13/8
Too Darn Hot 35% = 15/8 So is now imo good value @ 85/40
Which leaves the field (incl. Skardu) with 27% = combined 11/4
…And am pretty sure that Skardu has a better chance than all the rest put together (so 27 ‘/, 2 = 13.5) therefore Skardu I rate as a 15% = 11/2. So is imo value @ 7/1.**
Magna 38 + Skardu 15 = 53%
TDH 35 + The Field 12 = 47%
TDH 35 + Skardu 15 = 50%
Magna 38 + 12 The Field = 50%However, 11/10 Skardu to place looks better than any other bet.
Value Is EverythingWith my 38% MG and 15% Skardu, Magna Grecia has only around 2 1/2 times the chance of Skardu, Raymo.
Value Is Everythingor that he’s drifting to a more realistic price based on everything?
I think TDH was too short last night/this morning, Frenchy and then the market over-compensated. However, if drifting out further it would be worrying.
Value Is EverythingDidn’t see that coming, and as I said, Magna Grecia wasn’t the best horse in the UK Guineas. What a farce of a race that was.
Picked that thing out for the Eng equivalent for him not to go. Then didn’t back him here. Lovely! Nice Big G!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Craking choice Big G, he was super impressive all things being said. Decrypt also ran a cracker.
Well done Graham with Phoenix Of Spain and all backers..thankfully put a couple of pound on himself and Decrypt as thought there might be a shock in this..what a lovely horse and great ride from Mr. Spencer
Just about to watch The Temple Stakes and hoping Mabs Cross
will beat Battaash..going behind now…Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Battaash much to good…super sprinter superstar
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Cheers everyone, I was delighted with that result. Magna Grecia was sending out alarm signals
a good distance from home. It’s debatable if Too Darn Hot ran his race, perhaps he did and Phoenix
Of Spain is just a very good horse. It looks like he has progressed from 2 to 3, and he’s an
exciting prospect. I backed him at 12 when I thought that was a good price, and again today at
16s which I think was an insult to the horse. I wonder whether he’ll go for the St James Palace,
or even the Coral Eclipse, he certainly didn’t look like he was running out of fuel at a mile
distance, he could be even better over 10f. Either way I’m not going to back against him
will beat Battaash..going behind now…
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